China Drying Newsletter “Now that corporate profits are not profitable and business management has done a good job has not been a big deal, good rubber is the most important thing to buy.†“It's better to do better.†This is held in recent days. At the meeting of the vice chairman and vice chairman of the China Rubber Industry Association’s tire branch, tire industry executives agreed. This kind of violation of the conventional operating conditions has made the establishment of the Rubber Stability Fund an important topic for this meeting.
In recent years, due to the international political and economic situation, the impact of commodity prices, and the speculation of domestic and foreign capital, the natural fluctuations in natural rubber prices have become the norm. Taking the past two years as an example, the price of natural rubber soared to more than 40,000 yuan per ton in early 2011, and fell to about 26,000 yuan at the end of the year; the continuation of shocks in 2012 decreased, the highest price was around 30,000 yuan per ton, and the lowest was around 21,000 yuan. . As the cost of natural rubber accounts for more than 40% of the tire's production cost, the huge fluctuations in rubber prices make tire companies miserable.
“Before the year 2000, capital was not involved in the natural rubber market. The market price basically reflected the cost value. After 2004, capital began to intervene in the natural rubber market, which caused a fundamental change in the market. At present, the price of natural rubber has reached real value. Dissociated, completely in accordance with the orientation of capital fluctuations, and violent shocks, sometimes within 1 month of the shock range of more than 20%, resulting in dramatic fluctuations in the production costs of tire companies, causing tire manufacturers, natural rubber distributors and growers cause pole The only harm that may be gained is the speculators.†Shen Jinrong, chairman of Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., Ltd., said that the average profitability of tire companies is also a little more than 2%, and the impact of natural rubber price shocks can be thought of. And know.
Shen Jinrong believes that the fluctuation of natural rubber prices has been detached from the fundamentals of rubber supply and demand. For example, the skyrocketing price of natural rubber in recent days is totally unreasonable. Thai rubber growers have a lot of glue in their hands, and the Thai government has at least acquired them. With 150,000 tons, the Chinese government has at least 25,000 tons in storage, and the price of synthetic rubber has fallen sharply over the same period, which proves that global demand has fallen. In terms of fundamentals, companies such as Michelin, Bridgestone, and Goodyear have substantially lowered their sales targets for the fourth quarter, indicating that the industry is not optimistic about the market and only speculators are optimistic. In markets where prices and fundamentals are severely deviated, the entities that are hurt must be entities, including tire manufacturers and natural rubber growers.
Shen Jinrong said that the spot market price has a strong correlation with the futures trading price, and the futures market price leads the natural rubber price. Shen Jinrong believes that the appeal of the tire industry should be to maintain the relative stability of natural rubber prices, reflecting the fundamentals of supply and demand, rather than the product of capital speculation.
"How to maintain the stability of natural rubber prices? Should actively participate in this market, and anti-fundamental, anti-supply and demand of the party sing to the Taiwan opera." Shen Jinrong believes that the current futures market is only malicious speculation, there is no opposition, then this market It will be unscrupulous. At present, the fluctuation of 10% natural rubber prices is almost every month. A speculator can earn up to 200 million to 300 million yuan, while tire companies are losing 20 billion to 30 billion yuan in fluctuations. "They only make the market fluctuate violently to make money, and we can only make money by reducing volatility." Shen Jinrong said that the establishment of a rubber stabilization fund, a large tire company, can send a voice to the market, so that speculators see the strength of the industry.
The person in charge of the futures company introduced the operating mode of the Rubber Stabilization Fund, that is, through the market's high sell-down, establishment of commercial inventories, the suppression of market price fluctuations, making it basically reflect the fundamentals of supply and demand, sending out industry voices in the market, and grasping prices Initiative. It is understood that the fund will be sponsored by a number of large tire companies, the establishment of fund management company.
Yue Chunchen, general manager of Shuangqin Group Co., Ltd., said that the establishment of a rubber stabilization fund not only benefits tire companies and rubber growers, but also that traders will not suffer big losses in the large fluctuations in rubber prices in the future, and fewer “jumpersâ€. . Double money company strongly supports.
Ma Shichun, Chairman of Guizhou Tire Co., Ltd., Liang Liangguang, General Manager of Shuangxing Tire Co., Ltd., Liu Zhancun, Deputy General Manager of Linglong Tire Co., Ltd., and Chen Zhong, Deputy General Manager of Guangzhou Huanan Rubber Tyre Co., Ltd. all stated that in recent years, the company It is painful to suffer from the large fluctuations in rubber prices. This matter is well-established to maintain the stable and healthy development of the industry. The chairman of Tianjin International United Tire & Rubber Co., Ltd., Mian Zhen, vice chairman of Racing Wheel Co., Ltd. Yan Wanhua, deputy general manager of Xingyuan Tire Group Co., Ltd. Song Jitai, and director of the Planning Department of the Triangle Group Yue Zhongqiao also expressed their approval and support.
The executives of the participating companies also exchanged and communicated on related issues of the fund, and agreed that the relevant futures company will refine the fund implementation plan after the meeting and reconvene the meeting in due course. Tire enterprise procurement and financial personnel should be invited to discuss the details of the plan. problem.
When summing up, Deng Yaxi, president of the China Rubber Industry Association, stated that China is a big consumer of natural rubber, but it has never had the right to speak about prices, especially the large fluctuations in natural rubber prices in recent years, which has made it more difficult to control the cost of enterprises. The profit rate is only between 2% and 3%, and the better one is 5%. Ten years ago, the industry proposed a joint procurement motion, but it has not been implemented since there was no concrete implementation plan and operability. After a year of brewing, the Rubber Stability Fund has already got a preliminary plan. Major tire companies have reached a high degree of consensus and have greatly advanced the progress of this work.
Fan Rende, honorary chairman of the China Rubber Association, also stated that the rubber stabilization fund is something that no one has done before, and it is also a major event concerning the stable development of the industry. It is necessary to come up with specific opinions as soon as possible and actively promote the establishment of a stable fund.
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