At the end of the year, inventory intensifies pressure on car dealers

"This year's inventory pressure is certainly much worse than in previous years. It will only improve in the first quarter of next year." On December 31, Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, told reporters.

Luo Lei said that in the first two years of the auto market, most auto brands were in short supply, but this year due to policy changes and the impact of the macro environment, most brands are in a state of oversupply and sales are sluggish.

According to an e-mail from the China Automobile Dealers Association to reporters, since the second quarter of this year, there have been structural adjustments in the auto market and, with the shrinking of bank credit, the inventory pressure of various brands has increased significantly.

Li Xin, a senior analyst at the China Business Center Productivity Promotion Center, told reporters that under normal circumstances dealer inventory will remain under 1.5 months, but at present, more dealers are in stock levels of 2 months, and even dealers have reached 5 The high inventory status of the month is more risky.

According to the two-month inventory calculation, this year, the number of car sales is expected to exceed 18 million, and the inventory will exceed 3 million, which will undoubtedly increase the pressure on dealers. Some media even believe that the Chinese automobile industry has already carried 4 million inventory burdens and has taken up a large amount of funds. Some distributors have even experienced capital chain breaks.

It is worth noting that independent brand dealers face greater risks. Yu Yuanyu, deputy chairman of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that the overall inventory level of domestic cars such as FAW Xiali (000927.SZ), Chery, Geely, etc. was above average.

Luo Lei believes that self-owned brands are more affected by policies and inventory risks, and some high-priced imported vehicles still have phenomena of oversupply and even price increase.

However, Luo Lei still expects that there will be some improvement in the first quarter of next year. “The manufacturers will not be overstocked at the beginning of next year. Taking into account the situation this year, manufacturers will adjust the plan for the whole year next year, which is also more favorable for dealers.”

Li Wei believes that the sharp increase in inventory is related to the automobile distribution industry. The discourse power of the automobile circulation industry is weak, and it is a tool for manufacturers to digest inventory. Upstream manufacturers have transferred a lot of pressure to dealers.

The latest “Guidance Opinion on Promoting the Development of the 12th Five-Year Plan for Automobile Circulation Industry” (hereinafter referred to as “Opinions”) issued by the Ministry of Commerce is favorable for auto dealers to compete for the right to speak. The "Opinions" pointed out that during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the concentration degree of automobile circulation will further increase. The ratio of turnover of top 100 retail companies to the total business turnover of the industry exceeds 30%, and at the same time, 30 main businesses are cultivated for more than 10 billion yuan. The regional automobile circulation enterprises, 3-5 large-scale automobile circulation enterprises with more than 100 billion yuan.

It is understood that as of now, only a large group (601258. SH), Guanghui Automobile and other minority dealers have revenues of more than 50 billion yuan, and there are only 13 dealers whose main business revenue exceeds 10 billion yuan, and they have There is a big difference.

Luo Lei optimistically predicted that “it will not be too difficult to complete the goals of the “Opinions” and dealers will have a very high growth rate in the next four years.First, the domestic auto market will still maintain a certain degree of growth; Second, including self-built stores and mergers and acquisitions will make the auto dealers quickly become bigger and stronger. The future more than three hundred billion dealer groups are worth the wait."