August slowdown in electricity consumption growth in many provinces and cities

The “Economic Information Daily” reporter learned from multiple independent sources that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in August has dropped sharply compared with the previous month, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society has dropped from 11.81% in July to less than 10%. . Experts interviewed by the reporters from the "Economic Information Daily" believe that the signs of a slowdown in China's economic growth are more obvious, and that economic growth will fall slightly in the second half of the year.

Informed sources disclosed to reporters that in August, a number of provinces and cities saw a sharp drop in electricity consumption growth. Taking Jiangsu as an example, in July, Jiangsu's electricity consumption data increased by 10.85% year-on-year, 13.15% year-on-year from January to July, but the growth rate of electricity consumption in August fell below 4%. The person explained that there are two reasons for the dramatic drop in electricity use in the province. First, the recent closure of small and medium-sized enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces led to a year-on-year decline in the industrial growth rate of the province. Second, seasonal factors, the air-conditioning load in August decreased compared with July; and third, high-energy-consuming industries were considerably suppressed.

The slowdown in the growth of electricity consumption data confirms the decline in China's economic growth rate. Previously, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in August China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 13.5% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points lower than that in July.

However, Liu Xiahui, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that economic growth should not be too pessimistic. He told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter: "In absolute terms, China's economic growth rate is still very fast. China's economy has a strong endogenous growth momentum, as long as monetary policy does not further tighten investment will accelerate growth. Although the external economic situation is not clear in the second half of the year, the annual growth rate will not be lower than 9%. It is expected that the economic growth in the second half of the year may be a slight decline in the stability.

Zhou Jingyi, senior economist of the Bank of China’s Strategic Development Department, even believes that the economic growth in the fourth quarter may be stable or even better than in the third quarter.

“From a production perspective, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index showed a pick-up trend in August, indicating that the future production situation is good. The possibility of a sharp decline in exports in the next few months is relatively small, although the economic situation of the three major economies in Europe, the United States and Japan The impact on China's economy is not obvious, but since China's exports to Latin America and ASEAN have grown rapidly in the past two years, it is expected that the degree of impact will not be significant. In addition, due to the support of affordable housing, investment should maintain relatively high growth. With the gradual fall in commodity prices, the actual growth in consumption will also stabilize. Therefore, in the coming months, the Chinese economy is expected to enter a period of stable recovery.” Zhou Jingyi told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter.

Although economic growth may continue to slow down in the second half of the year, some experts oppose the relaxation of macro-control policies. Cai Zhizhou, deputy director of the China National Economic Accounting and Economic Growth Research Center of Peking University, told a reporter of the "Economic Information Daily" that macroeconomic regulation and control still needs to control rising prices as the main task, and should maintain the stability of the policy.

He came to this conclusion based on three reasons. First, the current economic slowdown is the result of state regulation, and the extent is within acceptable limits. Second, the acceleration of the construction of affordable housing in the second half of the year and the enthusiasm of economic construction in many localities will ensure that economic growth will not fall significantly; Finally, from the point of view of the three major demands, neither export nor consumption can be quickly improved by not relaxing the regulatory efforts.

“It is now a critical period for economic transformation. A certain slowdown in the economic growth rate can be tolerated,” said Cai Zhizhou.