According to the latest analysis of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the rapid decline in equipment costs and government support have laid the foundation for the explosive growth of the domestic solar market in the United States. By 2020, the US solar photovoltaic and solar thermal market will achieve an annual growth of 42% to 44GW. By then, the installed capacity of its domestic solar power generation, including photovoltaic power generation and thermal power generation, will account for 4.3% of the country's total installed power.
Photovoltaic heat and heat simultaneously The current installed capacity of solar power in the United States is only 1.4GW, ranking fifth in the world. According to BNEF's forecast, this figure may rise to 44GW by 2020. In a new report, by 2020, large-scale solar thermal power generation plans are expected to increase from the current 0.4 GW to 14 GW; while photovoltaic power generation will maintain a growth rate of 34% and reach 30 GW by 2020.
BNEF's research shows that the cost of representative PV modules has fallen by more than half in the past two years, but solar power is still more expensive than other power sources. According to its analysis, first-rate photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation have a cost of nearly US$200/MW without subsidy, which is almost four times that of coal-fired power plants and two to four times that of onshore wind power.
BNEF expects to take into account the existing incentives, by 2020 in Hawaii, Texas, New Jersey and Massachusetts, commercial scale photovoltaic systems can obtain 8-14% of the non-leverage returns. However, if more sophisticated financial leverage is used, large-scale photovoltaic power generation in the commercial sector will become more attractive to investors under the combined effect of the expansion of project scale and declining technology costs.
If the current incentive mechanism is maintained, it is expected that by 2020, there will be more than 3% of commercial rooftop solar photovoltaic systems installed. Utilities and residential systems will account for a quarter of all future solar power generation systems. BNEF expects that by 2020, 2.4% of US homes will install solar power systems.
Policy-driven is the foundation BNEF said that at least in the next three years, policy measures such as tax credits, capital expenditure subsidies, production incentives and renewable energy generation credit will always be the main driving force for the expansion of the US solar market. Current solar energy costs are declining, and various policies implemented by the federal government and state governments are expected to bring about rapid growth in commercial, utility and residential solar power generation.
In its analysis of investor returns, BNEF stated that the amount of sunshine is not a key indicator of return. In contrast, high tariffs and generous government support are much more important. According to Milo Sjardin, head of US research at BNEF, by 2015, the US solar retail market will be driven by competition without subsidies, which will transform the US market into one of the most dynamic solar markets in the world.
BNEF CEO Michael Liebreich said: “The US solar market will have a very significant increase. The most important thing now is to ensure the stability of the policy and let investors maintain confidence in this critical period. In the next decade, the US solar energy industry will A $100 billion investment from the private sector is needed, and any hint that the government's commitment to clean energy may be shaken will lead to the withdrawal of investors."
Photovoltaic heat and heat simultaneously The current installed capacity of solar power in the United States is only 1.4GW, ranking fifth in the world. According to BNEF's forecast, this figure may rise to 44GW by 2020. In a new report, by 2020, large-scale solar thermal power generation plans are expected to increase from the current 0.4 GW to 14 GW; while photovoltaic power generation will maintain a growth rate of 34% and reach 30 GW by 2020.
BNEF's research shows that the cost of representative PV modules has fallen by more than half in the past two years, but solar power is still more expensive than other power sources. According to its analysis, first-rate photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation have a cost of nearly US$200/MW without subsidy, which is almost four times that of coal-fired power plants and two to four times that of onshore wind power.
BNEF expects to take into account the existing incentives, by 2020 in Hawaii, Texas, New Jersey and Massachusetts, commercial scale photovoltaic systems can obtain 8-14% of the non-leverage returns. However, if more sophisticated financial leverage is used, large-scale photovoltaic power generation in the commercial sector will become more attractive to investors under the combined effect of the expansion of project scale and declining technology costs.
If the current incentive mechanism is maintained, it is expected that by 2020, there will be more than 3% of commercial rooftop solar photovoltaic systems installed. Utilities and residential systems will account for a quarter of all future solar power generation systems. BNEF expects that by 2020, 2.4% of US homes will install solar power systems.
Policy-driven is the foundation BNEF said that at least in the next three years, policy measures such as tax credits, capital expenditure subsidies, production incentives and renewable energy generation credit will always be the main driving force for the expansion of the US solar market. Current solar energy costs are declining, and various policies implemented by the federal government and state governments are expected to bring about rapid growth in commercial, utility and residential solar power generation.
In its analysis of investor returns, BNEF stated that the amount of sunshine is not a key indicator of return. In contrast, high tariffs and generous government support are much more important. According to Milo Sjardin, head of US research at BNEF, by 2015, the US solar retail market will be driven by competition without subsidies, which will transform the US market into one of the most dynamic solar markets in the world.
BNEF CEO Michael Liebreich said: “The US solar market will have a very significant increase. The most important thing now is to ensure the stability of the policy and let investors maintain confidence in this critical period. In the next decade, the US solar energy industry will A $100 billion investment from the private sector is needed, and any hint that the government's commitment to clean energy may be shaken will lead to the withdrawal of investors."
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