Cheng Yuan: Today, what kind of auto industry should we develop?

After two consecutive years of blowouts, the Chinese auto market began to grow steadily last year. Since this year, the market has been slammed and the independent brands are in a particularly difficult situation. However, it was recently learned that sales of SAIC-GM-Wuling have shown continuous growth. As of the end of June, cumulative sales of 750,800 units, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year, were much higher than the overall level of the industry with a growth rate of about 3%; 55.6% of the year-end target was achieved, and there were only four car companies that were “more than half of the time, achieving half of their targets”. one. At the same time, the market share reached 49%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the previous year. The passenger car brand Baojun, which was listed in August of last year, has accumulated sales of 60,368 units so far and has become the leader in the home car market within 100,000 yuan.

Unlike ordinary joint ventures, SAIC-GM-Wuling’s three main models: Wuling Zhiguang, Wuling Rongguang and Wuling Hongguang are all old-owned independent brands. Wulingzhiguang’s 10th anniversary of listing in May this year has a market holding of 3.65 million units. It is the single vehicle model with the largest sales volume in history. It ranks third in global auto sales in 2011. Create Wuling Rongguang in the era of domestic “large and small passengers”, listed in less than 4 years, entered the ranks of millions of sales models, is the fastest growing micro-car models in China; July 10 this year, N300 (Wuling Rongguang) models Officially mass production and put on the market in the GM plant, the first time to achieve the Chinese automotive industry's intellectual property and technology exports; N300 series products based in Egypt, and will seek opportunities through Egypt to cover the North African and large Arab free trade zone market. Wuling Hongguang, which is positioned as a "compact commercial vehicle," is a cross-border vehicle independently developed by SAIC-GM-Wuling. It soon achieved sales of 30,000 units in a single month and has accumulated sales of more than 350,000 units. It has been selected. As the main model for General Motors to enter the Indian market, it will begin mass production in India in the second half of the year.

Whether the overall automobile market is developing at a high speed or is low, SAIC-GM-Wuling can always maintain rapid development. Of course, it is undeniable that they play an important role in the development strategy of "platformization, differentiation, multiplication, and internationalization." But we are more inclined to think that it is their development strategy of "low cost, miniaturization," and more. In line with the global automotive development trends, more in line with China's national conditions.

What are the biggest obstacles to the current development of Chinese autos? Some people boiled down to macro-control, and people's income growth slowed down; it was attributed to explosive growth that led to market overdrafts; more people thought it was the “restricted purchase, limited line” policy of big cities, which caused people to have psychological barriers to buying cars. These arguments all have some truth, but we believe that the most fundamental reason is that the speed of development of automobiles exceeds the support capabilities of actual resources, the growth rate of car ownership exceeds the existing carrying capacity of cities, and it encounters energy shortages, air pollution, and congestion. The serious challenges aggravated, the advantages of car safety, comfort, and speed are offset by the negative impact it brings. People change from cars to likes and hates, and even resist. The country has more than 100 cities. Holding "Car-Free Day" activities year after year is a sign of the public's attitude toward cars.

At present, China's traffic consumption of crude oil has accounted for about 60% of the total consumption, and urban air pollution, especially the "contribution" of PM2.5, 70% comes from cars, and congestion has become the most afflicting torture for urban residents. The thrill of former automobiles has become a problem, which has overwhelmed China's big cities and caused urban managers to panic and fear the ultra-rapid development of automobiles. “Limiting and restricting purchases” has become a measure that must be taken to protect the general public. .

However, as the Chinese automobile market is diversified, the "car problem" is also "unbalanced." In large cities, especially in mega-cities, while cars have surpluses, the majority of small and medium-sized cities, especially towns and villages, are still in serious shortage of cars. This is the internal reason why SAIC-GM-Wuling is able to outshine the overall market. SAIC-GM-Wuling, general manager of Shenyang, said: "Micro-vehicles are facing the second-tier and third-tier cities and are the most basic automotive markets. If we look at non-main highways, we can know how big the capacity of the auto market is."

The so-called "car society" should be the vast majority of society members can enjoy the convenience of the car, not just limited to a few big cities, especially large cities filled with cars, the majority of rural areas, including townships and remote counties looking to sigh, In these places, pollution and congestion cannot yet constitute a threat to people's lives, and there is still huge room for growth in automobiles.

In the past, China’s automobile industry was in its early stages of development. Cities, especially big cities, have a strong demand for automobiles. The main contradiction in the market is the lack of supply. In addition, the difference between rich and poor in urban and rural areas, and the development of automobiles are more important to the city, in line with China’s social and economic development status. And right. However, at this stage, the annual sales volume of automobiles has approached 20 million vehicles, and it is isolated in the top of the world market. The number of civilian vehicles exceeds 100 million, ranking second only to the United States. With the excessive development of cars in big cities, the tolerance of major cities for air pollution and road congestion has reached a critical limit. The key adjustments in the development of the automobile industry will focus more on small and medium-sized cities and rural areas, so that the Chinese automobile industry can continue to develop and alleviate the energy crisis and air pollution problems in major cities.

For small and medium-sized cities and the vast rural areas, it cannot be simply a sporty “automobile going to the countryside”, but it should be a long-term strategy that is firmly implemented. China's actual urban-rural differences and regional differences, especially the relative backwardness of western rural areas, have determined that vehicles targeting these areas must be “low-cost, low-cost”, so that the majority of low-income residents can afford it and can afford it.

Over the years, SAIC-GM-Wuling has a small displacement, saves money and saves money. It also reduces pollution and can pull goods and carry people. It is in line with China’s economic structure and its low-cost operating capability has enabled product prices to be close to the people and products. Third and fourth-tier cities and rural low-income consumers are welcome. According to statistics, among the buyers of Wuling Automobile, the proportion of rural users is as high as 80%, and “Wuling Village” has also emerged in many places in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Henan. It is precisely for this reason that SAIC-GM-Wuling has become the first car company in China to have sold over a million cars a year. At present, there are 3,500 sales and service outlets of SAIC-GM-Wuling in the country. The coverage of prefecture-level cities is over 90%, and the coverage rate of county-level cities is around 55%.

The Chinese auto industry should develop SAIC-GM-Wuling enterprises and support the development of SAIC-GM-Wuling Wuling.