China's machinery industry development trend in 2013

According to the latest research report of the Chinese machinery industry in 2013, IMSResearch predicts that China's machinery and equipment output value will recover moderately in 2013, and is lower than the previous average.

Driven by the 4 trillion stimulus policy implemented in 2009, the Chinese economy achieved a strong recovery in 2010 and maintained this growth trend in the first half of 2011. However, in the second half of 2011, high inflation and overheated economy forced the central government to implement tightening policies. In addition, due to the slow recovery of the global economy and the worsening debt crisis in Europe, the export market began to decline. China's economy has begun to slow down, and Chinese equipment manufacturers have begun to suffer. In 2011, the total output value of China's machinery and equipment reached US$379.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%. In 2012, as we all know, the global economy will hardly have a big improvement in the short term. Therefore, Chinese equipment manufacturers have to shift their attention to the domestic market more. However, due to the continued tightening policy, the downturn in the domestic market in 2012 further aggravated the industry with excess capacity. The Chinese machinery and equipment industry continued the downward trend that began in the second half of 2011. The annual growth rate fell to 1.0%, which was the lowest point in recent years. 2012 was an extremely difficult year for equipment manufacturers, but there were also some good signs at the end of the year, such as the gradual recovery of the real estate market and increasing investment in urban rail transit.

According to IMS Research latest research report, construction machinery, industrial furnaces, machine tools, cranes, papermaking equipment, printing machinery, rubber and plastic machinery, semiconductor equipment, textile machinery, woodworking machinery, photovoltaic production equipment, fans, FPD production equipment, metallurgical equipment, etc. Many industries have suffered severe negative growth in 2012 due to factors such as overcapacity, domestic macroeconomic regulation, and sluggish export markets.

However, some industries related to people's livelihood still maintain a good growth trend, such as: agricultural machinery, electronic and electronic assembly equipment, food and beverage and tobacco machinery, packaging machinery and other industries.

“In 2012, many industries in China were facing excess capacity, such as: construction machinery, papermaking, photovoltaic manufacturing, metallurgy, textiles, etc.” Tang Jie, an analyst at IMS Research, said, “The Chinese government is likely to continue from the first half of 2013. Tight policy, until the second half of 2013, taking into account the continuing downturn in the export market and the social problems caused by the economic slowdown, the Chinese government will appropriately stimulate the economy, but it will be more moderate.”

Due to the adverse effect of large-scale stimulus policies, it is unlikely that 2013 will be followed by a large-scale stimulus policy in 2009. However, in certain specific areas, there will still be corresponding promotion measures. The uncertainty of the European and American economies remains. Large, equipment manufacturers will continue to rely on the domestic market, so how to tap new growth points will be the strategic focus of equipment manufacturers. According to the latest research, the following trends will be the direction of the domestic equipment market in the short term:

Manual replacement

According to the 2012 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Communique released by the latest National Bureau of Statistics, China’s working-age population has declined for the first time, and the turning point of China’s “demographic dividend” disappeared in 2012, which will have a significant impact on economic growth. For some labor-intensive industries, this will force them to face increasing labor costs. As a method to cope with this problem, the use of highly automated equipment has become a trend.

Energy saving

At the end of 012, Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities encountered rare hazy weather. People gradually realized that the extensive economic development model in the past brought more and more serious environmental problems. The government has also begun to soberly recognize the disadvantages of sacrificing the environment for development. Therefore, energy conservation and emission reduction have become an important indicator of high energy consumption and high pollution industries. As a result, equipment manufacturers also have to apply more advanced technologies to adapt to this trend.

Industrial upgrading

Previously, domestic manufacturers have been focusing on low-end, low-cost product markets. As raw material prices and labor costs have risen, more manufacturers have begun to develop mid-to-high-end markets. In addition, benefiting from the impact of reforms and opening up, domestic living standards have significantly improved, and consumer demand for high-quality products is increasing. Therefore, the demand for medium and high-end equipment will increase.

Urbanization

The Chinese economy has always relied on exports, investment and consumption as the “troika”, especially exports and investment. However, this over-reliance on exports and large-scale investment has made it difficult for most people to abandon the unsustainable economic growth model. Future economic growth will rely more on consumption. Recently, the central government is actively promoting urbanization, because urbanization is a key step in starting domestic demand. Urbanization will inevitably require the construction of some public infrastructure and investment in urban transportation. In addition, the new urban population brought about by urbanization will also form a huge consumer group. Therefore, urbanization will gradually become a new opportunity for equipment manufacturers.

On the whole, 2013 will be a year of transition, and China's machinery and equipment industry will enter a mild recovery year. According to the latest research report, the total output value of the machinery and equipment industry will reach about 11% in 2013. Among them, industries related to people's livelihood (such as: food and beverage machinery, packaging machinery, agricultural machinery and other industries) will become the main growth point.