According to historical experience, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets will increase to a higher level in each successive year of the government. In 2013, the new government proposed a strategy for urbanization . In the long run, the pulling effect of heavy truck sales is very obvious. In view of the experience of the State II emission standard rising to the overdraft requirement of State III, we believe that there is also a large overdraft demand for State III to State IV . This is mainly due to the increase in terminal prices caused by the increase in the cost of heavy trucks.
After the National III Upgrade Country IV, the price of bicycles increased by about 10%, making consumers who are more sensitive to prices, have a strong intention to purchase short-term products. However, given that the heavy-duty truck industry experienced a difficult destocking phase in the early stage, and prior to the implementation of new urbanization measures, dealers and manufacturers were more cautious in restocking, leading to a slower recovery in demand. With the coming of the start of April, overdraft demand will gradually be released, and heavy truck sales in the second quarter are expected to reach a higher point. We estimate that the sales volume of heavy trucks in April will be around 80,000 units, an increase of 28.2% year-over-year and an increase of -7.1% year-on-year. Heavy truck sales in the second quarter are estimated to reach about 225,000 vehicles, an increase of 33.8% year-on-year.
The year 2013 marked the renewal of demand, coupled with the rebound in investment growth, we believe that this year's sales will be less than the normal update demand may not continue. It is estimated that the current total weight of heavy trucks is approximately 4 million vehicles. It is expected that the proportions of chassis, semi-trailer traction and vehicles will be 35%, 35% and 30%, respectively, assuming that the retirement period will be 3 years, 10 years and 10 years respectively. In that year, the normal demand for heavy trucks this year is about 730,000 vehicles. In 2012, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 636,000 units. In light of the normal demand for updates, the sales of heavy trucks in 2013 will increase by about 15% year-on-year. According to the principle of prudence, under full consideration of the weak economic recovery, the annual sales growth of heavy trucks should also be above 10%. The growth interval should be between 10% and 15%, and sales volume should be between 69.7 and 728,000 vehicles.
As a cyclical industry, the heavy truck industry will experience four periods of depression, recovery, prosperity and recession. During the recession period, the industry has been in the destocking phase. At this time, vehicle manufacturers consume inventories, and the demand for upstream components is reduced. As a result, the decline in the demand for parts and components is larger than the decline rate of the entire vehicle. At this time, the allocation of the entire vehicle will have relative income. During the recovery period, due to low inventory of vehicle manufacturers and expected future demand recovery, so there is a need to cover up inventory, then part manufacturers are stimulated by the actual demand and also stimulated by the dual demand for vehicle inventory, sales growth rate is good For OEMs, configuring components will have relative benefits.
With the gradual recovery of heavy-duty truck sales in March 2013, we believe that the gold crossover at the end of the first quarter has been formed, and the income growth of the parts and components companies in the second quarter will be greater than that of the entire vehicle company. Due to the demand for complete vehicles, the elasticity of parts will be greater than the whole vehicle. According to this logic, we believe that parts and components will be the biggest beneficiaries of this heavy truck recovery.
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