Market replay in 2003 Since 1999, the domestic heavy-duty vehicle market has entered a period of rapid growth. In 2003, the production and sales volume of the domestic heavy-duty vehicle market hit new highs, reaching the highest value in recent years, and clearly entered the “stable period of growth.†The total production volume of 23 heavy-duty trucks in the country totaled 261,768 units in the year, an increase of 3.62% over the same period of 2002; the total sales volume for the year was 255,755 units, an increase of 4.3% over the same period of 2002.
In 2003, the domestic heavy-duty vehicle market was significantly affected by SARS, load-limiting policies and seasonal factors. It can be described as "multi-hit and more difficult," showing a "high-to-low," but heavy vehicle market as a whole remains strong. The annual market has the following obvious features:
The market entered a period of stable growth From January to April 2003, the production and sales volume of the domestic heavy-duty vehicle market continued the rapid growth momentum since 1999, which was in a sustained growth trend with strong demand; in May, the market was affected not only by SARS but also by “five†First, holiday demand, heavy-duty car demand has a greater decline, the overall trend in the "bottom"; starting in August and September, affected by the bank's auto consumption policy, seasonal and other factors, the heavy vehicle market entered the off-season earlier than last year. However, from the overall trend of the heavy-duty vehicle market in 2003, the total market demand is still in a period of growth, and the growth rate has dropped significantly.
High market concentration In 2003, the production and sales data of 23 heavy-duty vehicle companies showed that the market's production intensive degree was getting higher and higher. The total production volume of the top seven Hajia companies in the heavy-duty truck market was 252,566 units, and the market concentration reached 96.48%. The total sales volume was 247,054 units and the market concentration reached 96.60%. FAW Group and Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. are still the main force in the heavy-duty truck market. Shaanxi Automobile Group, China National Heavy Industry Truck (Jinan), Beiqi Foton, and Chongqing Heavy-duty Truck followed.
More than 15 tons of heavy-duty trucks sells more than 300 horsepower Large-tonnage, high-horsepower heavy-duty vehicles are one of the strategic priorities of the national “Tenth Five-Year Plan†automobile industry planning. In 2003, the heavy-duty vehicle market was still one of the highlights of the auto industry. Among them, heavy-duty vehicles of more than 15 tons were the bright spots in the heavy-duty vehicle market. Heavy-duty vehicles of more than 15 tons accounted for 7.3% of its annual heavy-duty vehicle sales in 2002; In 2003, it rose to 11.6%.
New models continue to be listed. In 2003, each heavy vehicle company continued to launch new products based on its own competitive advantages and product structure, and based on the characteristics of user needs, using the “replacement product development strategy†and “improved product development strategyâ€, and further intensifying the heavy Car market competition. Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. has introduced more than 10 kinds of "Steyrl" products one after another with its advantages in products and technologies. Among them, "Delong" heavy-duty tractors have become the flagship of domestic heavy-duty vehicles; Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. has launched "Tianlong" series; Chongqing CNHTC launched the "Dai Kang" series; Beiqi Foton launched the "Hsiong Shih No. 1" and "Hsiung Shiu 2" series and so on.
More emphasis on product comfort In 2003, domestic heavy-duty vehicle products have been transformed from the "practical" to "comfortable" concept. Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck "Delong" F2000 series heavy-duty truck products have brought Chinese heavy-duty truck products to the international level of the 21st century.
Production and sales in the first quarter of 2004 In the first quarter of 2004, the cumulative production and sales of trucks were 396,200 and 378,000 vehicles, which represented a year-on-year increase of 19.00% and 28.46%, respectively, a decrease of 10% compared with the previous year. .00 percentage points, while sales volume increased by 6.07 percentage points. The contribution of the production and sales growth of various models of trucks is also significantly different. As a result of the previous period, the national highways have achieved greater results in overhauling roads, prompting many logistics companies to accelerate the upgrading of heavy loads, including medium-duty trucks, within the company. Change in speed was affected by the increase in the production and sales of heavy and medium-duty trucks in the first quarter of 2004. Among them, heavy-duty trucks were accumulatively sold and sold for 82,500 and 72,900 units in the first quarter. The contribution to production and sales growth was 3.90% and 3.98%, 0.37% and 2.08% higher than the previous year. .
In the sales of heavy-duty trucks, the proportion of the chassis was relatively large, accounting for 53.60%, which was a decrease of 3.94 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The vehicle accounted for 46.40%, an increase of 3.94 percentage points year-on-year. This shows that during the fast rising period of a market, the demand for the main models is more, while other special vehicles (loading heavy-duty truck chassis) are subject to restrictions and the cycle time is long, indicating that the market demand is positive.
In the first quarter of 2004, a number of heavy-duty truck companies suffered losses. On the one hand, the production and sales reached a record high. On the other hand, profits were falling back and forth. This scenario is expected to be difficult for the industry to predict. The reason is that the cost of raw material price increases, I am afraid that more is the harsh environment of competition, manufacturers in addition to price war, no longer a better weapon, product homogeneity caused the product to see little.
Wine-making Hero According to the analysis of the production and sales data of the heavy-duty vehicle market in recent years and the first quarter of 2004, we can see from the beginning of 1999 that China’s heavy-duty vehicles have achieved rapid growth in production and sales, and have been strong for four consecutive years, becoming the most beautiful landscape in the automotive industry. The rapid growth of market demand and the large increase in production and sales have enabled companies to seize the opportunity to scale up and expand sales to account for the market. Except that some other car manufacturers who did not originally produce heavy-duty vehicles took the opportunity to expand their product coverage, non-automotive manufacturers also entered the heavy-duty vehicle sector with great enthusiasm and became members of the competition. In recent years, Beiqi Foton, Chunlan, and Qingling have entered the field of heavy-duty vehicles, and JAC and SAIC are actively preparing to enter. The joining of the new army of these industries has made the competition of heavy-duty vehicles more fierce. These newcomers are all strong in the original production and management fields, have good operating performance support, and some have become or may soon become a strong competitor in the market.
With the rapid development of FAW large tonnage heavy vehicles and the gradual localization of large horsepower Deutz engines, heavy-duty vehicles with more than 15 tons will gradually become the dominant products of FAW Heavy Duty Trucks; currently the large-tonnage series of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Corporation The production and sales volume of the models have already accounted for about 70% of Dongfeng heavy trucks. Dongfeng Hercules, Dongfeng Tianlong and other new products will constitute new product growth points for Dongfeng heavy trucks. Large-tonnage products such as traction and dumping will be used in Dongfeng heavy trucks. The proportion in China is also growing. China National Heavy Duty Truck Group still has obvious advantages in the 20-25 tons heavy truck market. "Liberation" and "Dongfeng" brands of heavy-duty vehicles still have strong awareness in the country. In the past two years, CNHTC Group’s “Steyrâ€, Isuzu’s “F-series heavy-duty vehiclesâ€, and Chunlan heavy-duty vehicles, in particular Beiqi Futian’s “Auman†and Shaanxi Automobile Group’s heavy-duty military off-road vehicles, have risen. There are also the “Northern Mercedes-Benz†and “Chongqing Iron Horseâ€. With the expansion of the heavy-duty vehicle market, the domestic heavy-duty truck brands have quickly become diversified, differentiated, and individualized. This means that the brand marketing and brand service in the heavy vehicle market have been upgraded.
Driven by the strong demand of the market, the new army of the industry is no longer satisfied with the distribution of a market cake. Instead, it dreams of becoming a dark horse afterwards. Therefore, its rapid development and great determination in the competition make it quite natural for a newborn to fear the tiger. Beiqi Foton is a typical example. In the development of heavy-duty vehicles in China, it is a major feature that comes from behind. In the early 1980s, the essence of China’s heavy-duty vehicle production established China National Heavy Duty Truck and became the overlord of heavy-duty vehicle production. Later, Dongfeng Company came from behind and surpassed China National Heavy Duty Truck and became a leader. In the late 1990s, the rise of FAW Group, production and sales exceeded the east wind and became the industry leader. At present, the competition between FAW and Dongfeng is unabated. It is clear that the two companies are the two dominant players in the heavy-duty vehicle market in China. However, according to the author's analysis and prediction, Beiqi Foton and Shaanxi Automobile Group will be the most powerful contenders for the new hegemony in the heavy vehicle market in the next few years.
The environmental factors that predicted the 2004 impact on the heavy-duty vehicle market in 2004 were as follows: (1) The national economy continued to maintain rapid growth, and China’s GDP growth was expected to reach 8.5% in 2004; (2) National Auto Industry “Tenth Five-year Plan†Emphasis was placed on the emphasis on the development of heavy-duty trucks with a power requirement of 300 horsepower or more for trucks, and in addition to the promulgation of a series of policies and regulations that have far-reaching implications for the heavy-duty vehicle market in recent years, prompting heavy-duty vehicles to enter “large-tonnage,†"High-powered, heavy-duty" track; (3) After China's accession to the WTO, the development of China's truck-loaded export trade has boosted domestic economic development and extended the domestic heavy-duty truck market; "4? National key projects will drive heavy loads in some regions." The hot-selling of trucks, such as the national key construction projects such as West-to-East Gas Transmission, West-to-East Electricity Transmission, South-to-North Water Transfer Project, Olympic Games Project, and 2010 World Expo, has brought unlimited business opportunities to heavy-duty vehicles.
Considering the above macro factors, according to the data of heavy truck sales in 1995-2004 and the market growth rate, a regression model analysis method was used to establish a market forecast model, which eliminates uncertainties and forecasts the heavy vehicle market demand in 2004. It will gradually enter a steady growth stage, and the total market demand for the whole year is expected to be 255,500 to 270,500 units, with an increase rate of 2.5% to 5. 7 %.