International oil price rebounded to change domestic refined oil price adjustment expectations

With the rebound of international crude oil prices in recent days, the average rate of change in crude oil in the three places has already stopped at 4%. Experts predict that before the middle of March, the rate of change in the three places will be difficult to form a positive or negative 4%. This means that before at least mid-March, the country is unlikely to have a price adjustment policy for refined oil products.

In the previous period, the international oil price dropped to US$70/barrel. The average rate of change in the three regions once faced a negative 4% chance. From February 9 onwards, international oil prices climbed from a relatively low of 71 US dollars to the close on February 19. The US WTI crude oil futures price reported at 79.81 US dollars per barrel. According to the monitoring of the Oriental Oil and Gas Network, the average rate of change in the three regions has reached -3.042%. Although it may continue to fluctuate for some time in the short term, the negative trend of breaking 4% may be very low.

"Speculative funds are still the initiator of the sharp rebound in oil prices." Zhong Jian, chief analyst of the Eastern Oil and Gas Network, said that in the week of February 9, speculative funds showed a lot of buying short and selling bulls crazy. In just one week, the net longs have been reduced by more than 44,000 hands, making the net long for speculative funds quickly fall from a level of 86,000 hands to a relatively low level of 40,000 hands. According to the laws of the international market, when the net liquidation of each speculative fund is completed, there is often a speculative act of increasing the position for the next time. When the speculative fund net long fell to 40,000 hands, it immediately began to go long. During the same period, the international oil price also fell from a low price of 70 US dollars and quickly pulled up.

Zhong Jian believes that as long as the international crude oil price continues to be above 80 U.S. dollars in the next 10 working days, the rate of change in the three places will rise from a downward trend, and it is possible that the current negative direction will be around March 5. The 3% gradually increased to a negative 1.4%, or approached the point where the three rates were zero.

In accordance with the system of refined oil product price adjustment in China, the rebound in international crude oil prices has caused the elimination of the recent decline in domestic refined oil prices. Since November 9, 2009, the country raised the price of gasoline and diesel by 480 yuan/ton. The domestic refined oil price has not been adjusted.

From the perspective of the domestic refined oil market, the rebound in international oil prices has also boosted the pessimistic attitude of the domestic market. Analysts believe that the winter is the off-season for refined oil consumption. After the spring of March, domestic consumer demand for refined oil products is expected to continue to warm.

Shell Making Machine

Dust Collector,Shell Making Machine,Slurry Mixing Machine,Shell Making Equipment

Dongying Fuhao Precision Casting Science & Technology Co.,Ltd , https://www.fh-cast.com