With the initial public offering of 32 million A shares by Yantai Spandex Co., Ltd. on July 16, it was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and another listed company in the polyurethane industry will soon be born. At present, the performance of listed companies in the polyurethane industry such as Yantai Wanhua, Jiangshan Chemical, Shanxi Three-dimensional, Hualu Hengsheng, Bluestar Cleaning, and Quzhou Chemical has been stable. According to Yantai Wanhua's annual report published on July 12, the company's operating performance in the first half of 2007 increased significantly, net profit reached 606 million yuan, an increase of 94.21% year-on-year; Shanxi three-dimensional annual report released on July 16 also It shows that in the first half of 2007, the company increased its revenue and increased profits. Its net profit was 179 million yuan, up 223% year-on-year. The upcoming listing of Yantai Spandex made people look forward to the future development of the polyurethane industry.
MDI, TDI, BDO, DMF, PTMEG are all important raw materials for polyurethane production. In the second half of 2007, it is expected that raw materials for polyurethane production will still be in short supply.
In MDI, the Asia-Pacific region has been the region with the fastest growth in global MDI demand in recent years. China is also the fastest-growing country, with an average annual growth rate of more than 20%. Although Shanghai Lianheng’s 240,000-ton/year MDI plant will resume production in the second half of the year, the market supply will increase substantially. However, from the current market supply and demand situation, domestic MDI is still in a state in short supply. In particular, the rapid development of the spandex industry and the implementation of building insulation standards have kept the demand for MDI at a high rate of growth. Therefore, although the price of MDI will decline in the second half of the year, the decline will not be significant.
At present, China has not entered the era of heavy consumption of polyurethane. For example, polyurethane shoes produced in China are mainly exported, and domestic consumption is only a small amount. China produces 800 million pairs of polyurethane shoes each year, and domestic consumption is less than 200 million pairs. According to the “Environmental Energy Conservation Medium and Long Term Special Plan†issued earlier, by 2010, China’s urban construction will achieve a design standard of 50% energy saving, and Beijing, Tianjin, and other small cities will take the lead in implementing the 65% energy saving standard; by 2020, the north and the coast The economically developed areas and mega cities achieve the 65% target for energy efficiency in buildings, and most of the existing buildings have completed energy-saving renovations. In 2006, guidelines for the application of polyurethane building energy-saving were introduced. In 2007, standards were promoted. This policy will bring tremendous opportunities for the development of the polyurethane industry. According to estimates by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, domestic demand for MDI will reach more than 1 million tons in 2011, taking into account energy-saving needs. Therefore, the MDI market will continue to maintain a higher degree of prosperity in the future, and related listed company Yantai Wanhua will continue to benefit.
In terms of TDI, although the explosion of the TDI plant in Dazhou in May this year caused a certain impact on the market in the short term, causing the market price to rise. However, due to its 30,000-ton capacity, it only accounts for about 8% of domestic demand. The impact on the supply relationship in the domestic market is limited. Currently, the impact on the market is mainly psychological. We expect the market price will still be mainly affected by supply and demand. Due to tighter overall market supply and relatively stable demand, the price will remain at the current level in the second half of the year. Level.
For the DMF market, Hualu Hengsheng established a new 80,000-ton/year DMF production line in the second quarter. The company's total DMF production capacity has reached 230,000 tons/year, making it the world's largest DMF producer. In addition, Jiangshan Chemical announced in early June this year that it plans to build 200,000 tons/year of DMF and its associated methylamine and ammonia plant in Inner Mongolia.
Although the domestic DMF industry is facing a situation of overcapacity, the market will face the pressure of oversupply in the second half of the year. However, under the background of the global DMF industry's transfer to China, Hua Lu Hengsheng has the production cost advantages and many more. The DMF manufacturers of the product line will continue to continue their healthy development and are expected to make greater breakthroughs in the market.
After the previous fall in BDO prices, the recent market conditions have been relatively weak. In August and September, the major BDO manufacturers at home and abroad will gradually carry out maintenance. In the second half of 2007, there will be 33,000 tons of spandex production capacity expansion in China. The PBT project of Changchun Chemical and Xingxin Materials in Taiwan will also increase the demand for BDO. Therefore, in the face of the recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that there will be a tight supply situation, and the BDO market will experience a certain rebound in the context of hardly falling costs. However, in the long run, the entire BDO industry will still face the pressure of overcapacity expansion. Affected by the tight supply, PTMEG prices continued to rise slightly. Although spandex demand entered the off-season, spandex manufacturers still maintained high-load operation. In the second half of the year, with the launch of new spandex production capacity, PTMEG supply will continue to be tight. Due to thin demand, the spandex market will be relatively weak.
In general, the polyurethane industry continued to maintain a prosperous situation in the first half of 2007. In particular, the Ministry of Construction officially issued the “Technical Guidelines for Polyurethane Rigid Foam External Wall Insulation Engineering†on May 19th. The building insulation and energy-saving industry is expected to be a few years old each year. A large market of nearly 200 billion yuan will be born. In the long run, polyurethane is the best insulation material. Together with the development of the Chinese automobile industry and the replacement of polyurethane materials with traditional materials such as PVC, the polyurethane industrial chain will be produced. It will usher in a rare opportunity for development. The growth in demand in this area will be expected in the long-term. The trend of the polyurethane industry in the next few years is promising. At the same time, we must also realize that although the current high oil prices are beneficial to crude oil and natural gas extraction and processing industries, they will also bring high prices for raw materials in the midstream of oil, increase the cost of synthetic materials and processing industries, and affect the efficiency of downstream polyurethane products. Therefore, all polyurethane companies must also be prepared to face the impact of high oil prices. In addition, for the high-growth polyurethane industry, we must remain vigilant. We must raise the threshold for industry access and prevent excessive investment and low-level redundant construction. Based on the comprehensive analysis, it is expected that the polyurethane industry will maintain a high degree of prosperity in the second half of 2007.
MDI, TDI, BDO, DMF, PTMEG are all important raw materials for polyurethane production. In the second half of 2007, it is expected that raw materials for polyurethane production will still be in short supply.
In MDI, the Asia-Pacific region has been the region with the fastest growth in global MDI demand in recent years. China is also the fastest-growing country, with an average annual growth rate of more than 20%. Although Shanghai Lianheng’s 240,000-ton/year MDI plant will resume production in the second half of the year, the market supply will increase substantially. However, from the current market supply and demand situation, domestic MDI is still in a state in short supply. In particular, the rapid development of the spandex industry and the implementation of building insulation standards have kept the demand for MDI at a high rate of growth. Therefore, although the price of MDI will decline in the second half of the year, the decline will not be significant.
At present, China has not entered the era of heavy consumption of polyurethane. For example, polyurethane shoes produced in China are mainly exported, and domestic consumption is only a small amount. China produces 800 million pairs of polyurethane shoes each year, and domestic consumption is less than 200 million pairs. According to the “Environmental Energy Conservation Medium and Long Term Special Plan†issued earlier, by 2010, China’s urban construction will achieve a design standard of 50% energy saving, and Beijing, Tianjin, and other small cities will take the lead in implementing the 65% energy saving standard; by 2020, the north and the coast The economically developed areas and mega cities achieve the 65% target for energy efficiency in buildings, and most of the existing buildings have completed energy-saving renovations. In 2006, guidelines for the application of polyurethane building energy-saving were introduced. In 2007, standards were promoted. This policy will bring tremendous opportunities for the development of the polyurethane industry. According to estimates by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, domestic demand for MDI will reach more than 1 million tons in 2011, taking into account energy-saving needs. Therefore, the MDI market will continue to maintain a higher degree of prosperity in the future, and related listed company Yantai Wanhua will continue to benefit.
In terms of TDI, although the explosion of the TDI plant in Dazhou in May this year caused a certain impact on the market in the short term, causing the market price to rise. However, due to its 30,000-ton capacity, it only accounts for about 8% of domestic demand. The impact on the supply relationship in the domestic market is limited. Currently, the impact on the market is mainly psychological. We expect the market price will still be mainly affected by supply and demand. Due to tighter overall market supply and relatively stable demand, the price will remain at the current level in the second half of the year. Level.
For the DMF market, Hualu Hengsheng established a new 80,000-ton/year DMF production line in the second quarter. The company's total DMF production capacity has reached 230,000 tons/year, making it the world's largest DMF producer. In addition, Jiangshan Chemical announced in early June this year that it plans to build 200,000 tons/year of DMF and its associated methylamine and ammonia plant in Inner Mongolia.
Although the domestic DMF industry is facing a situation of overcapacity, the market will face the pressure of oversupply in the second half of the year. However, under the background of the global DMF industry's transfer to China, Hua Lu Hengsheng has the production cost advantages and many more. The DMF manufacturers of the product line will continue to continue their healthy development and are expected to make greater breakthroughs in the market.
After the previous fall in BDO prices, the recent market conditions have been relatively weak. In August and September, the major BDO manufacturers at home and abroad will gradually carry out maintenance. In the second half of 2007, there will be 33,000 tons of spandex production capacity expansion in China. The PBT project of Changchun Chemical and Xingxin Materials in Taiwan will also increase the demand for BDO. Therefore, in the face of the recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that there will be a tight supply situation, and the BDO market will experience a certain rebound in the context of hardly falling costs. However, in the long run, the entire BDO industry will still face the pressure of overcapacity expansion. Affected by the tight supply, PTMEG prices continued to rise slightly. Although spandex demand entered the off-season, spandex manufacturers still maintained high-load operation. In the second half of the year, with the launch of new spandex production capacity, PTMEG supply will continue to be tight. Due to thin demand, the spandex market will be relatively weak.
In general, the polyurethane industry continued to maintain a prosperous situation in the first half of 2007. In particular, the Ministry of Construction officially issued the “Technical Guidelines for Polyurethane Rigid Foam External Wall Insulation Engineering†on May 19th. The building insulation and energy-saving industry is expected to be a few years old each year. A large market of nearly 200 billion yuan will be born. In the long run, polyurethane is the best insulation material. Together with the development of the Chinese automobile industry and the replacement of polyurethane materials with traditional materials such as PVC, the polyurethane industrial chain will be produced. It will usher in a rare opportunity for development. The growth in demand in this area will be expected in the long-term. The trend of the polyurethane industry in the next few years is promising. At the same time, we must also realize that although the current high oil prices are beneficial to crude oil and natural gas extraction and processing industries, they will also bring high prices for raw materials in the midstream of oil, increase the cost of synthetic materials and processing industries, and affect the efficiency of downstream polyurethane products. Therefore, all polyurethane companies must also be prepared to face the impact of high oil prices. In addition, for the high-growth polyurethane industry, we must remain vigilant. We must raise the threshold for industry access and prevent excessive investment and low-level redundant construction. Based on the comprehensive analysis, it is expected that the polyurethane industry will maintain a high degree of prosperity in the second half of 2007.
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