·Re-pressurized OR to put the satellite car "national team" to run 2020

In the next five years, the Chinese national team will launch a large-scale survival race with multinational auto companies and private capital.
Whether it can successfully cross 2020, it will become a watershed for the rise and decline of the Chinese national "national team." "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan will be a crucial period for the development of Chinese brands. Chinese brands should strengthen their confidence, adapt to the current situation, seize the opportunity of the Internet and intelligent transformation, and break through the trend." In late April, the 2015 China Automotive Forum held in Shanghai Jiading On the other hand, Yuan Mingxue, vice president of Changan Automobile, expressed his disappointment to all industry colleagues and media seated in the audience.
Consistent with the development of the global automotive industry, the critical point of survival of Chinese auto brands can be defined by the scale of production and sales. According to the “13th Five-Year Plan” of Chang’an announced by Yuan Xueming, Changan hopes to achieve annual production and sales of more than 2 million independent brands by 2020. Like Changan Automobile, most of the “national team” members of their own brand cars have placed great hopes on the next five years in their “13th Five-Year Plan” and set an ambitious goal.
According to the “13th Five-Year Plan” announced by major groups, self-owned brand passenger vehicles have become the absolute main force of the “national team” impulse, among which FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, GAC, BAIC and Changan are aiming at the self-owned passenger car segment. Target sales are all 1 million units or even higher.
The “national team” of the scale competition car is vying to set a large-scale sales target for 2020. One direct motivation is to squeeze into the “first camp” of sales volume, and the similar “government status” can ensure the pursuit of the subsequent merger and reorganization wave. Active position. However, from the outside world, not all members of the "national team" have the strength and strength to challenge the "first camp." Even the FAW Group, the eldest son of the Republic, has been catching up with SAIC and Dongfeng in the ups and downs of the past five years. Changan, which has risen rapidly last year, has also surpassed FAW to advance to the top three in terms of sales of its own brands.
For any member of the "national team", the scale of production and sales of independent brands is not only an economic figure, but also carries an indescribable political significance. In order to make the scale as large as possible in the short term, many “national team” members not only increase R&D investment, but also speed up the pace of new product launching. The usual methods include setting up sub-bases, mergers and acquisitions, and importing from joint ventures. Production and technical resources. In the past few years, the rapid “staking of the land” by Beiqi and Dongfeng has largely been directed at the scale effect.
“During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, Dongfeng brand is at the forefront of the industry in terms of scale and has become one of the most influential brands. Secondly, the comprehensive strength of the Group is among the best in the industry.” At the China Automotive Forum in late April, Dongfeng Motor Liao Zhengbo, the head of the company's strategic planning department, said publicly. According to the “big autonomy” strategy announced by Dongfeng in the early stage and the “13th Five-Year Plan” of Liao Zhengbo’s recent disclosure, the production and sales scale of Dongfeng’s independent sector must reach 3 million by 2020.
Among them, the self-owned brand commercial vehicles reached 1 million units, and the Dongfeng self-owned passenger vehicle brand that hangs the Shuangfeiyan LOGO reached 1 million vehicles, including other self-owned brands including Dongfeng Nissan Kaichen and Dongfeng Yulong Nazhijie. Dongfeng Honda Si Ming, etc.) reached 1 million vehicles. As the joint venture's own brand is also included in the “big autonomy” statistics, Dongfeng's “13th Five-Year Plan” throws out the pressure of other “national team” members to face huge scale competition, although the above statistical methods still have a lot of controversy in the industry. .
The “13th Five-Year Plan” announced by Changan Automobile is expected to achieve an overall production and sales scale of 4.5 million vehicles by Changan Group in 2020, of which 2.3 million vehicles will be sold by independent brands, of which the target of production and sales of self-owned brand passenger vehicles is expected to be 1.5 million. Around the car. In the scale of sales of independent brands, Changan is FAW Group. According to the previously announced FAW Group's plan, its “13th Five-Year Plan” aims to achieve 2 million self-owned brands by 2020. In new energy vehicles, it will occupy 15% of the national market share and become the leader of China's new energy vehicles. By. In addition, Xu Xianping, general manager of FAW Group, reiterated at the recent group meeting that by 2025, FAW will achieve its goal of “China’s No. 1 and Top Ten in the World”.
It is roughly estimated that the production and sales volume of FAW's own brand passenger car business will be at least 1 million units by 2020. This is also the target that SAIC, BAIC and GAC's own brand passenger cars are expected to achieve at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Feng Xingya, executive deputy general manager of Guangzhou Automobile Group, revealed at the 2015 China Automotive Forum that “Guangzhou Automobile’s own brand will achieve the goal of generating 1 million vehicles by 2020, and comprehensively promote innovation in its own brands, core components and new energy vehicles. Improve core competitiveness."
It is worth mentioning that the profit target.
Faced with the wind, although large-scale automobile groups with state-owned backgrounds such as SAIC, Dongfeng and Guangzhou Automobile have recently announced the 13th Five-Year Plan for 2020, and they all threaten to expand their own brand passenger car business to 1 million units, but they are facing The obstacles and challenges "Ya Li Shan Da" - the market growth slowed down, the joint venture brand down and the consumer demand upgrade, the Chinese car "national team" ambition is inevitably encountered a cruel reality.
In recent years, the market share of independent brands has been declining year by year. Relevant statistics from the China Automobile Association show that the market share of self-owned brand vehicles in 2010-2013 was 33.8%, 31.3%, 30.8%, 29.9%, respectively. From 2013 to 2014, the share of independent brands even fell for an unprecedented 12 months. At present, the survival of independent brands is still facing constant challenges. With the establishment of mass cheap cars and a large round of price cuts by joint venture vehicles, the survival of independent brands is worse.
“The differentiation of the future industry will be more intensified, and the industry reshuffle will enter the peak period of one stage.” At the 2015 China Automotive Forum, Cheng Jinglei, the chief engineer of SAIC Group, made the above-mentioned preliminary judgment. Earlier, Zhu Fengshou, general manager of Dongfeng Motor, and Dong Yang, vice president of China Automobile Association, also had similar assertions. “At the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, self-owned brands may have to be eliminated by more than half, leaving only a few large competitive companies.” But whoever succeeds in the battle and survives after achieving large-scale production, the key time window is The next five years.
“The overall market share of independent brands is declining. This is very stressful for us (Changan Auto).” Yuan Mingxue said frankly about the goal setting of the “13th Five-Year Plan”. Like Chang'an, Dongfeng Motor Group executives also believe that the real fatal factor in achieving the strategic goal in the future is that the Chinese auto market has ended its rapid development, gradually becoming saturated, and lacking momentum for growth. Liao Zhengbo judged that in the next 13th, including the next five to ten years, the growth of the entire automotive industry will be less than 10%.
In fact, after entering 2015, even the joint venture brand has already felt the lack of growth momentum in the auto market. In the first quarter, nearly 10 automakers such as Shanghai Volkswagen, Changan Ford, and Beijing Hyundai announced the official price cuts, with a preferential margin of 1-2. The decline in the price of the joint venture brand was quickly transmitted to the independent brand. The above steam-carrying vehicles started, and Lufeng Motor and Dongfeng Motor successively joined the price reduction army. A sales manager of a self-owned brand car company told reporters without worry. "When the joint venture brand really feels pressure, it will definitely move the price, but this time it is the most uncomfortable moment for the independent brand."
Of course, pessimism does not completely cover all the “national teams” of self-owned brands, because China’s huge market base and fast-growing individual market segments are still left to the growing Chinese auto market – multi-functional, Differentiated SUV and MPV markets, as well as new energy vehicles that the government strongly supports. In this regard, Liao Zhengbo believes that "China's auto industry is still in a period of strategic development." Zeng Qinghong, general manager of GAC Group, also has a very forward-looking anticipation, and the best opportunity for China's auto industry is 2020. .
Since 2012, independent brands have successively launched the second generation of products, and gradually gained market acclaim. In the field of SUV and MPV, responsive and sensitive brands have occupied most of the market. For example, in the first ten models of SUV sales in the first quarter of this year, the self-owned brands have already occupied eight models. Driven by the growth of SUV, the market share of self-owned brands in the first quarter of this year rose 4.2 percentage points year-on-year to 43.2%. The biggest attraction is that some car companies' own-brand cars are gradually picking up.
For the entire "national team" of automobiles, the development of new technologies and the addition of new energy vehicles will be the two most important routes for the national team in the "13th Five-Year Plan". Take Dongfeng as an example. In 2014, Dongfeng Group, which invested in Peugeot Citroen in France, used “taking strength”. Dongfeng plans to invest 15.7 billion yuan in R&D and development by 2020, with an investment ratio of about 5%. In the same way, SAIC, Chery and Changan also stocked billions of R&D funds, paving the way for the development of new energy and new technologies.

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