From May 9th to May 13th, 2011, the petrochemical market showed a slight adjustment. The proportion of products with rising, stable and falling prices accounted for 23%, 38%, and 39% of the petrochemical 100 wind vane targets. Among them, light soda ash prices led the gains with a weekly gain of 3.91%; liquid chlorine plunged with a fall of 16.63%; acetic acid prices did not continue to grow, falling 9.06% this week. The fluorine chemical industry will be strengthened due to the firm price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid and the strong downstream demand. The soda ash and caustic soda market will continue to rise under the dual influence of international demand growth and the decline in supply due to electricity restriction policies in some regions; Coal prices rose for eight weeks in a row, with a cumulative increase of 7.17%. Analysts said that China Shenhua will benefit from increased production capacity, and it expects earnings per share of 2.26 yuan this year.
After the petrochemical market experienced large fluctuations in the previous period, the price of acetic acid and other products that had a large increase in price dropped significantly. Overall, this week the petrochemical market has fallen in product range and the market has remained stable.
According to statistics from Business Club, among the 68 products in the chemical market, the prices of 17 products have shown an upward trend, the prices of 26 products have remained stable, and the prices of 25 products have shown a downward trend. Among them, light soda ash prices rose the most, with weekly gains of 3.91%, up 32.11% year-on-year; heavy soda ash prices rose the second, with weekly gains of 3.20%; liquid chlorine prices fell the most week at 16.63%. At the same time, the price of acetic acid, which soared 47.43% last month, fell sharply. The weekend price was 4,157 yuan/ton, down by 9.06%.
Of the 12 products in the energy market, prices of four products rose, prices of one product remained flat, and prices of seven products declined. Among them, thermal coal ranks first in the energy market growth rate with 0.61% increase, WTI fell 3.49%, the largest decline in the energy market. Of the 20 products in the rubber and plastics market, the prices of 2 products rose this week, 11 products remained flat, and 7 products fell. Butylene benzene 1502 rose 0.18%, up 66.37% from the same period last year, this week, the rubber and plastic market prices rose the most; PET (bottle) fell 3.03% this week, the biggest drop in the rubber and plastic market.
Fluoride industrial chain is still strong
Looking at the 68 indicators of the chemical industry, the chemical market has eased somewhat from the previous month. The prices of most chemical products began to decline this week and entered the adjustment period. Soda ash is one of the products with better performance this week. Light soda ash increased from RMB 1,855/ton at the beginning of the week to RMB 1,928/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.91%, a year-on-year increase of 32.11%; heavy soda ash week. The initial price was 1,870 yuan/ton, while the weekend price was 1,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.20%, up 29.79% from the same period of last year. At the same time, the prices of fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid in the fluorine chemical industry chain remain strong. The market price of fluorite continued this week, and from the price data map of the business community, the fluorspar rose from 1,660 yuan/ton in January of this year to 2,633 yuan/ton in the mainstream factory price this week, and the highest quotation in Inner Mongolia reached 3,100 yuan/ton. Ton. The operating rate in the domestic market has remained at over 80%. This year, the total fluorspar mining control targets issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources will have a good supporting role for the fluorite market in the long term.
This week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is still running at a high level. The mainstream quoted price is maintained at 10,700 yuan/ton, the market is active, and the manufacturers start working normally. The operating rate is about 80%. As a whole, the high level of upstream fluorite production and downstream demand is still a good factor supporting the high price of hydrofluoric acid. At present, the downstream R22 price stabilized and stabilized, which is the main reason for the stable price of hydrofluoric acid. At the same time, the increase in labor costs, storage and transportation costs is also one of the factors supporting the rise in hydrofluoric acid prices.
The energy and plastics market is flat
The price of energy market has also stabilized this week. Only the prices of thermal coal, liquefied gas, coke, and dimethyl ether have risen. The increases have been 0.61%, 0.35%, 0.26%, and 0.15%, respectively; Among the declining products, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 3.49% and 2.52% respectively this week; methanol gasoline remained at 8,060 yuan/ton this week, unchanged from last week.
From the rubber and plastics market, due to the consolidation and fluctuation of international crude oil this week, the mentality of the rubber and plastics market was under pressure and performance was poor. The price of most products such as nitrile (blue N41), PVC (type 5 of calcium carbide) and butyl (1675N) remained flat. SBR 1502 and LDPE (2426H) rose slightly. Natural rubber (standard one) and PP (T30 drawing) Grades, PA66 and other products have fallen in price. It is understood that the majority of products in the downstream market have a strong wait-and-see attitude and the transaction is a bit stalemate. It is expected that the market outlook will continue to be weak.
Most product prices are sideways
The petrochemical market price for the mid-late month was slightly adjusted. This week's petrochemical market has two aspects: First, the price of acetic acid dropped sharply, almost evaporating the gains from the previous period. This also fully demonstrates that the current market environment is stabilizing, and that soaring or plunging is difficult to sustain. More is a small price fluctuation of less than 3%. Second, the maximum increase of 100 kinds of petrochemical vane products is less than 4% (soda). Energy, rubber and plastic products have not even risen more than 1%. This situation is rare this year. Many analysts cast an inflection point when the crude oil crashed last weekend. However, it is difficult to confirm this point of view with the rising or falling ratio of Petrochemical 100 this week. Most of the products are in a sideways state and there has been no panic setback on a large scale. Therefore, there is no turning point in the petrochemical market.
"Two alkali" market salted fish turn over
According to the data provided by the business community, the domestic caustic soda market has continued to warm since April and prices have steadily increased. This week, the average domestic price of 32% caustic soda rose by about 1.1%, while the mainstream quoted price ranged from 700 yuan/ton to 860 yuan/ton. The current market price has reached a high level.
Galaxy Securities analyst Li Guohong mentioned that due to the earthquake that occurred in March, Japan's Asahi Kasei caustic soda plant in Chiba was shut down, and other areas of the caustic soda plant also had partial shutdowns. This made the international supply of caustic sour and caused the export of caustic soda to China. Business opportunities. Japan’s earthquake has caused its domestic production and sales of caustic soda to be unbalanced, and it needs to increase imports during the reconstruction process. At the same time, China's transport distance is relatively close, and the export of caustic soda is convenient. Therefore, favorable factors such as the increase in downstream demand and the shortage of caustic soda brought by Japan’s earthquake have driven the price increase of caustic soda in China.
For the trend of the market outlook, business community analyst Li Wei said that the current smooth shipping companies, supply shortages in many places, and the recent implementation of power restrictions throughout the country have a greater impact on the start of business, the market supply will be more tight, caustic soda Still good.
This week, the domestic soda ash market picked up and prices have risen sharply. According to the statistics of domestic key soda ash enterprises monitored by the business club, the average price increase of soda ash is 3.91%. At present, the major domestic manufacturers of light soda ash are quoted at 1900 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton.
"The reasons for the rise in soda ash prices are: Downstream companies started to gradually recover, soaring demand for soda ash; limited power limited production, lack of business start-up, tight supply in the market; upstream raw salt is tense, and prices are running high; some companies stop and overhaul." Wei said.
Due to the excessive price increase, the downstream industries have different ability to accept, and it takes a certain period of time for the soaring soda price to rise. At present, many people in the industry hold a wait-and-see attitude.
Alkaline companies usher in investment opportunities
Shenyin Wanguoguo analyst believes that Sanyou Chemicals will become a significant beneficiary under the background of the “two alkali†market heating up and power shortage. The company's soda ash production capacity was 2 million tons last year, second only to 2.2 million tons of Shandong Haihua. The company's PVC and caustic soda are double 300,000 tons and will be gradually expanded to double 500,000 tons within the next two years. In the first quarter of this year, the company completed a private placement and acquired 240,000 tons of viscose staple fiber capacity after the acquisition. In addition, the company's 60,000 tons of organic silicon production capacity was officially put into operation at the end of last year.
The company has announced that it will collaborate with Qinghai Wucai Mining to build a 1.1 million tons/year soda ash project. Due to the large amount of sodium chloride in the salt lake in Qinghai, the original salt used for soda ash production is guaranteed. At the same time, limestone, coal and other minerals in the Qaidam Basin The resources are very abundant. The raw materials for the soda project are fully equipped. Therefore, Galaxy Securities estimates the production cost of the Qinghai soda ash project at only 600 yuan/ton.
On the other hand, the recent shortage of electricity will reduce effective supply, which is also one of the reasons for the continued rise in prices of both alkalis. The self-sufficiency rate of Sanyou Chemicals is 62%. Thermal power plants of the company can also protect the company's electricity during the power shortage period. The demand enables the company to fully benefit from the increase in product prices, and it is also one of the companies in the power shortage that can fully benefit from the increase in product prices.
Thermal coal prices rose 7.17% in a row for eight consecutive weeks
Thermal coal is one of the products with stable performance in the near term. From March 23 to May 12, the 5,500 kcal thermal coal price continued to rise for eight weeks, with a cumulative increase of 7.17%.
Multiple factors push up thermal coal prices
On May 13, Qinhuangdao Port's thermal coal price of 5,500 kcal of coal rose to 825 yuan per ton, which was an increase of 80 yuan per ton, or 9.7%, compared with the same period of last year. The latest publicized Bohai Bay thermal coal index on May 11 was 820 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous period of 818 yuan/ton.
Business analyst Li Qian said that the continuous rise in thermal coal prices in the last two months has been related to a significant drop in China’s coal imports. As international coal prices continue to operate at a high level, the price advantage of imported coal is not obvious from a long-term perspective. Coal imports have fallen sharply and exports have rebounded significantly. Due to the decrease in imports and the increase in exports, the net import of coal in the first quarter was 26.59 million tons, a decrease of 12.12 million tons or a decrease of 31.3% compared with the same period of last year. As coal imports fell, coal-mining companies that use imported coal turned their procurement targets to the domestic market, which led to an increase in domestic coal market demand and boosted thermal coal prices.
At the same time, from April 1st, the Daqin Railway launched a routine off-season maintenance for a period of one month. Every day, “opening the skylights†for 3 hours, the Daqin Line’s coal traffic volume was greatly affected, and the amount of coal imported into the port railway fell accordingly. , Thermal coal supply is damaged. The phenomenon of "power cuts and power cuts" at various levels in various regions in China has also increased the market's expectation for the growth of coal consumption. The "panic" of downstream power plant enterprises and coal distribution companies has also pushed up thermal coal prices.
Liquid chlorine, acetic acid ranks in the top two in this week's drop
In the chemical products market this week, liquid chlorine and acetic acid ranked the top two in the drop list.
According to statistics from business clubs, the average price of liquid chlorine at the beginning of the week was 1,200 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 1,000 yuan/ton, with a fall rate of 16.63%, which was a decrease of 34.20% compared with the same period of last year. At present, the trading atmosphere is light. The main reason for the drop in the price of liquid chlorine is the upstream market price of caustic soda, but the cost has not been reasonably released; the price of calcium carbide in downstream PVC enterprises remains high, the production cost of PVC is too high, the demand for liquid chlorine is limited, the formation of bad; the liquid chlorine plant operating rate Higher, inventory pressure appears.
Jiang Wenfang, a data scientist of the Business Agency Chemicals Branch, believes that if the liquid chlorine business still maintains its full-capacity start-up status, the liquid chlorine market will inevitably be adjusted, and the liquid chlorine market will continue its weak consolidation trend in the near future.
At the same time, the price of acetic acid, the product that took the lead last month, also fell sharply this week. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the week was 4571 yuan/ton, and it dropped to 4157 yuan/ton at the weekend, with an overall decrease of 9.06%.
Gao Zizhai, a business analyst, said that the main reasons for this week's acetic acid market slowdown were a slowdown in exports and an increase in corporate inventories; pre-maintenance companies started to increase market supply; at the same time, under the influence of continued decline in acetic acid market prices, The family has a strong wait-and-see attitude and there is no obvious purchase intention. From the downstream point of view, the downstream demand for chloroacetic acid, acetate, etc. is not strong. It is expected that the price of acetic acid will decline further as the factory operating rate increases and the demand decreases.
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