The price of oil fell 12 times, and the fuel tax was raised again

The unit tax for gasoline consumption tax was raised to RMB 1.52 per litre, and it has been raised three times recently; Beijing No. 92 gasoline is RMB 6.07 per litre and it has failed to return to the era of RMB 5

On January 12, the refined oil price adjustment window opened again, and suffered a third-degree increase in the consumption tax, which reduced the price of oil. No.92 gasoline returned to the five-year period of five and a half years.

Three times higher consumption tax rate has exceeded 50%

As the international oil price continued to decline, a new round of domestic oil price adjustment window opened downwards to achieve the first drop in the New Year. At the same time, the consumption tax was raised for the third time, offsetting some downward adjustments.

The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the afternoon of the 12th that since January 13, 2015, the unit tax for consumption tax for gasoline, naphtha, mineral spirits and lubricants has been increased from 1.4 yuan/liter to 1.52 yuan/liter. The consumption tax for diesel, aviation kerosene and fuel oil was increased from RMB 1.1/liter to RMB 1.2/liter. Aviation kerosene continues to be suspended.

The National Development and Reform Commission stated in a subsequent price adjustment notice that it decided to reduce the prices of gasoline and diesel by 180 yuan and 230 yuan per ton respectively, and calculated that the retail price of gasoline No. 90 and diesel No. 0 (average of the country) would decrease by 0.13 yuan and 0.20 yuan per liter respectively. Yuan, price adjustment execution time is 24 o'clock on January 12. The Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission also issued a notice showing that the maximum retail price of gasoline No. 92 had been lowered from RMB 6.21 to RMB 6.07/liter, which had previously been expected to “fall back to the era of 5 yuan”.

The National Development and Reform Commission stated that since the end of December 2014, affected by factors such as abundant supply in the international oil market and weak demand, the oil price in the international market has oscillated downwards, and the average price continued to fall in the 10 working days before January 12. According to the current mechanism for determining the price of refined oil products, the prices of gasoline and diesel can be reduced by 395 yuan and 380 yuan per ton, respectively.

According to the Circular on Continuing to Raise the Consumption Tax on Refined Oil issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on January 12, the unit tax of consumption tax for gasoline and diesel has increased by 0.12 yuan and 0.10 yuan per litre since the time of January 13 of the same year. The price of gasoline and diesel per tonne decreased by 215 yuan and 150 yuan respectively. The two factors offset each other, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices are reduced by 180 yuan and 230 yuan per ton, respectively.

Since the second half of last year, international oil prices have continued to plummet, and domestic oil prices have fallen for 12 consecutive days. After the end of November last year, the consumption tax was raised three times during the price adjustment window, offsetting some adjustments.

According to the reporter’s statistics, the cumulative increase in the three recent consumption taxes has exceeded 50%. Among them, the consumption tax for gasoline increased from 1 yuan/liter to 1.52 yuan/liter, and diesel oil increased from 0.8 yuan/liter to 1.2 yuan/liter.

Taxes are used to manage environmental pollution and tackle climate change

Regarding the third increase of the consumption tax, the Ministry of Finance’s Tax Administration stated that after raising the refined oil consumption tax twice in the fourth quarter of 2014, this time, we will continue to increase the unit tax for consumption of refined oil products in order to further promote consumption tax to promote air pollution control and promote the transformation of development methods. The role of other aspects. This time, we will continue to adopt the adjustment method of “increasing taxation and reducing prices” in order to increase the consumption tax for refined oil products, taking into account the affordability of residents and downstream businesses. New revenue from the increase of refined oil consumption tax will continue to be used as an overall plan for environmental pollution control, climate change response, energy conservation, and the encouragement of new energy development. The new revenue generated after the increase of refined oil consumption tax continues to be included in the general public budget.

According to Wang Jintao, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, after this adjustment, the proportion of tax revenue in refined oil products has increased to 44%-45%, which is a medium level in the world. Among the major economies, the United States has the lowest, accounting for about 15% of the tax burden. The main components are the federal fuel consumption tax and the state fuel consumption tax (which varies from state to state). The United Kingdom and Germany are about 59% and 56% respectively, and they are mainly VAT, consumption tax, or energy tax. South Korea has always been a high tax burden, mainly transport tax, education tax, travel tax, value-added tax, etc., the proportion of 52% -53%. Japan is about 41% lower. Wang Jintao said that in addition to the United States, countries around the world adopt a high taxation strategy, mainly to guide the rational concept of energy consumption, which is consistent with China’s efforts to increase the consumption tax in order to increase environmental protection.

Influence

Upstream refinery cost pressures increase

The re-adjustment of the consumption tax also affects upstream companies and downstream consumers.

In 2014, the price of oil fell sharply, and the downstream demand was severely deficient. The growth of diesel fuel slowed down, resulting in a sharp decline in the operating rate of refineries. Most companies started operating at less than 20% during the year. Longzhong Petrochemical Network told reporters that China's consumption tax levy is still in the upstream link, that is, from the production companies link levy, consumption tax increase for the enterprise is undoubtedly worse.

Longzhong stated that the excise tax is a turnover tax levied on units and individuals that are subject to taxable consumer goods as stipulated in the tax law of production and import in China, and is an indirect tax levied on specific consumer goods and consumer behavior at specific stages. It will eventually be passed on to consumers, but at the upstream of the industrial chain, the production costs of refineries will increase further, and the competitiveness of non-private enterprises will be further reduced.

Zhong Yong Information analyst Zhang Yonghao believes that the consumption tax adjustment continues the tone of energy reform and aims to clarify the price relationship between upstream and downstream products through clear-cut taxation, and to constrain the increase in the tax burden of high energy-consuming and highly polluting energy products such as gasoline and diesel. The growth rate of consumption, through the use of price levers to promote energy structure adjustments, makes energy consumption tilt towards clean and alternative energy sources. However, the recent adjustment of consumption tax is mainly to increase the tax rate, but the core part of social concerns has not been touched, and the mode of collection, object of collection, etc., have not changed fundamentally, and the phenomenon of repeated tax and fee collection will still exist. Therefore, the consumption tax adjustment will continue in the later period. It is expected that the main adjustment direction in the later period will no longer be the improvement of the tax burden level, but rather the reform and improvement of the consumption tax collection method.

â–  Market outlook

The probability of the next round of oil price reduction is too large

The next round of oil price adjustment window will open on January 26.

On the market outlook, Li Yan, an analyst with Longzhong Petrochemical Network, said that Saudi and OPEC organizations are very firm in their position of not cutting production. In addition to the oversupply, weak demand, global economic slowdown and strong US dollar performance, international crude oil is still under a lot of downward pressure. Business bearish sentiment continues. The recent international crude oil prices have not yet bottomed out and there is still room for further declines. It is expected that the probability of downward adjustment of refined oil products will be greater in the next round.

Zhuochuang Information also believes that the recent international oil prices will continue to show a tendency to oscillate and there is a low probability of a sharp rebound. In addition, there is only one month left before the Spring Festival, and domestic diesel demand has entered the off-season. In the absence of favorable guidance in the market, it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the domestic market for refined oil products. (