Automotive industry: production and sales slightly lower than the ring to look at the passenger car industry

The overall performance of the auto industry in October was good, with a year-on-year increase in production and sales, and a decrease from the previous month. The export gradually recovered. The entire industry achieved an overall sales of 1.5386 million vehicles, an increase of 25.47% compared with the same period of last year, and a decrease of 1.16% from the previous quarter. The total output reached 1.5410 million units, an increase of 22.50% over the same period of last year and a decrease of 3.26% from the previous period. The industry exported 50,100 vehicles, an increase of 4.53% over the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate reached 73.47%, continuing to maintain high-speed growth. In October, the output of passenger vehicles in the auto market performed better than the commercial vehicle segment. The passenger vehicle industry achieved sales of 1.2032 million units in October, a year-on-year increase of 27.12%, a significant increase, only a slight drop of 0.68% month-on-month. The output reached 1.981 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.48% and a decrease of 2.61% from the previous quarter. Sales of commercial vehicles in October reached 335,500 units, an increase of 19.87% over the same period of last year and a decrease of 2.85% from the previous month. The output reached 342,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.18% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.46%, both being lower than the performance of passenger cars.

The share of self-owned brands of passenger vehicles continued to rebound year-on-year, while the market share of passenger vehicles with 1.6L and below continued to expand. In October, a total of 509,300 self-owned passenger car brands were sold, which accounted for 45.66% of the total passenger vehicle sales. The occupancy rate increased by 3.62% from the previous month and 1.2% from the same period of last year. At the same time, the market share of passenger cars with 1.6 liters or less has been rising for three consecutive months due to the impact of subsidies for energy-saving products. In October, sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were 841,200, and the market share accounted for 69.91% of the total amount of passenger cars, which was higher than the level of the previous year. We believe that the auto industry will still be able to maintain a normal sales season in the fourth quarter of this year, and still maintain a forecast of 25%-30% year-on-year growth in domestic auto sales.

Investment advice: Lowering the industry rating from "look" to "neutral", optimistic about the leading enterprises of commercial vehicles and spare parts leading enterprises. With the continued improvement in sales figures in the fourth quarter, it is expected that the automobile sector in the fourth quarter will still have certain performance opportunities. However, we believe that at this stage, the automobile industry is developing at this level in China, and the country is not only likely to gradually fade out of the policy support category. The policy shift is likely to bring about greater volatility in the short-term development of the auto industry. In addition, the current situation of passenger vehicle sales is relatively good, and the policy overdraft component is large (this can be seen from the sales of vehicles with 1.6 liters or less). As the passenger vehicle industry will face greater pressure for capacity expansion next year, we are not optimistic about the performance of the passenger vehicle industry in the first half of next year. Investors are advised to use the fourth quarter sales data and the company's good performance to promote the reduction in the number of passenger car-related stocks. For commercial vehicles, we believe that we can still maintain a certain degree of growth next year and basically support the current share price. Based on the analysis of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, we have downgraded the entire automotive industry from "look" to "neutral." In terms of specific sub-sectors, the opportunities are mainly concentrated on the leading commercial vehicle brands with advantageous valuation and some high-end spare parts leading enterprises with strong competitiveness in the segmented areas.