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"Car Family" is a new book published by Xinhua News Agency reporter Nan Chen this year, which is based on China's near-term observation in the automobile society. It is also a companion book to its earlier publication "Automobile Society." The book records the author's in-depth observation and reflection on China's ascendant auto family in the past six years, and the ups and downs of the automobile family around China during the social transition. This book is now published by Nan Chen's exclusive authoritative Gasgoo.com website, so stay tuned!
Professor Wang Songqi, a well-known economist and deputy director of the Institute of Finance at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, prefaced the book:
In 2009, the throne of the "automobile kingdom" that the United States took for a hundred years was officially granted to China. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2009, China’s auto production and sales both broke through 13.5 million vehicles, reaching 13.79 million vehicles and 13.64 million vehicles, respectively, while the United States sold only 10.4 million vehicles in 2009 due to the financial crisis. It fell by 21% a year. According to experts' estimates, the number of Chinese household cars will increase by 15% in 2010, and the overall car sales are expected to exceed 17 million. From the long-term trend of stable and rapid macroeconomic development, the rapid expansion of the middle class in China, and the rapid increase in urban residents’ income, the potential of China’s auto market will continue to show stunning performance in the next 20 years. The above data shows that China, with its per capita GDP just close to US$4,000, has advanced to the automobile society in advance.
Car family is the premise of the automobile society. When the vast majority of urban households in China have become automobile families, and a considerable portion of China’s rural residents own automobiles, China’s automobile society stage has truly arrived. Our people of all ages have passed the era of material scarcity under the planned economic system. The urban families in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s were mostly tens of dollars per month to support a large family. The rich family standards of that era were the so-called “big fours†(bicycles, watches, sewing machines, radios). Have degree. Today, after the reform and opening up, our "young people in the 80s," especially the young generation in the "post-90s" generation, listened again to our "past stories." Most of them expressed their surprises or impatience, and they thought that these old stories were all It was deliberately compiled by adults for the purpose of "remembering hardships".
I clearly remember that when I was graduating from university in 1982 when I was graduating from university, I said, “Big Sister, I will come to Beijing in the future. You go to the gate and I will pick you up.†The older sister said, “You blow it.†!†Now, the big sister who thought I couldn’t afford a car at the time had two family cars. According to the income and living standards of the current year, no one would have thought that the speed of economic development in China in the past 30 years will be so rapid, and the people’s living standards will have such a substantial increase. It is a myth of China’s economic development that is continuous 30 The annual economic growth rate of over 9% has turned this into a reality. From a destitute society to an abundance society, from the family to the car family, Chinese urban residents are facing many new problems.
Xinhua News Agency reporter Nan Chen has captured the new changes in the structure of China’s social wealth in a timely manner with his keen and talented person. On the basis of his published book “Automobile Societyâ€, he also wrote the “Automobile Family†excellent manuscript. The classification of learning and economics constitutes a logic system that focuses on the consumption of private cars, from the “view of rights†of the automobile family, the sustainable development of the automobile family, and the “security concept†and “civilization concept†of the automobile family. The auto-family's troubles, expenditure burdens, and rural auto family trends, and the “low-carbon future†of the auto family are all novel and close to reality. I am not an expert on auto problems, but it is a driver with 20 years of driving experience, and of course, an economist. Therefore, from the perspective of drivers and theoretical researchers, I can make a simple comment on Nan Chen’s outstanding manuscript. . From the driver’s point of view, for each car family, the contents of Chapters 3, 4, 5, and 6 of the book are very applicable, and Chapter 6 “The small account book of the automobile family†is particularly nuanced; From the perspective of the person, the second chapter, “Sustainable Development of the Automobile Familyâ€, raises a very important question: “How many cars can China's land hold?†Before the Spring Festival in 2010, I participated in a The name was “invited by the leaders of the financial community in Beijingâ€. Wang Rulin, the governor of Jilin Province in my hometown, said in a painstaking introduction to the economic development of his hometown that Jilin Province had an advantage in the automobile industry, but that year we were in some models of family cars. The development did not seize the opportunity. At that time, the annual output of the design was too small. Why did we not consider the annual output of 500,000 vehicles or even 1 million vehicles of 2 million vehicles? So that some manufacturers in other provinces seized the opportunity to quickly develop. Governor Wang's remarks are of course very correct. In the regional economic competition, they often lead one step ahead. But at the time I immediately thought: Can so many cars be sold? How large is the capacity of China's auto market in a certain period? Nanchen's manuscript has attributed the market's market capacity to the carrying capacity of China's land, and ultimately to the struggle between the automobile and the crops in wheat and paddy fields, which left a very deep impression on me. According to the data cited by Nan Chen: In the United States, the average land used per vehicle is 0.07 hectares of roads and parking lots, which is calculated based on the 240 million U.S. car ownership in 2004 alone. The area of ​​land used for roads and parking lots in the United States is calculated. Estimated at 16 million hectares, this is almost the same area as the U.S. farmer used to grow wheat, so in China, which has a population of 1.3 billion people and about 400 million households, one day, when the number of cars reached close to two people and one car, that is 6.4 Billion vehicles and China’s vehicle area is only equivalent to 50% of the United States. Then, it also needs 22.4 million hectares. This large amount of land is calculated according to the average empirical yield, and can produce nearly 200 million tons of rice each year. This is my calculation. The calculations in Chen’s manuscript are somewhat conservative. His hypothesis is that if China had 640 million cars in the future, the area of ​​land to be paved would be 13 million hectares, and such a large site area could produce 122 million tons of rice. Even so, the prospects are. It is also unthinkable. As everybody knows, China’s annual food production in recent years is about 500 million tons. If we can use the land that can produce 1/4 of China’s grain for roads and parking lots, that is, China’s annual grain will be reduced directly or indirectly. More than 20%, then we must import the same amount of food from the international grain market. According to normal inferences: If China with 1.3 billion people needs more than 20% of the annual food demand to be met by imports, then the international food market will face the threat of collapse. . As of the end of 2009, China’s car ownership was 198 million vehicles, which will increase to 640 million vehicles in the near future, not to mention the supply of oil, and it will not be said that Beijing-Tibet Expressway will block traffic jams for more than a few days in Beijing. The capital has been renamed as "the first block," and it is only a huge threat to the world grain market. Therefore, when we think of the Chinese auto family and think about China's inevitable move into the automobile society in the future, we can really use " Looking ahead, shudder to describe.
Undoubtedly, the emergence of Chinese automobile families, the development of the Chinese auto industry, and the management and planning of the Chinese auto society must be incorporated into a comprehensive consideration. It must be as rigorous as when China implemented the family planning policy more than 20 years ago. Logical considerations. The unrestrained development and expansion of automobile families is certainly a disaster for China. To avoid this catastrophe, I am afraid that it is impossible to solve the problem by advocating the purchase of a small-displacement vehicle or engaging in a "free car day" activity for a short period of time. Indeed, we are now faced with a dilemma: On the one hand, the Chinese people have the right to pursue modernization. China’s officials at all levels hope that the automobile demand will be strong to stimulate the development of the auto industry; on the other hand, China’s red line of 1.82 billion mu of land, The urban management capabilities of our country and the negative impact of the expansion of automobile families have forced us to take precautions. Therefore, from now on, our macroeconomic managers should regard the structural transformation of automobile consumption and the substantial improvement of urban management as an important consideration. From this point, it can be said that the soon-to-be-introduced “Car Family†of Nan Chen not only has car families to look at, but also officials at all levels who have administrative duties in the bus should also read it well.
Nan Chen's Preface: Car Home Introduction (a) Why do I care about the car family What is a car family? The narrow interpretation is that at least a family with a private car. For a long time, the industry is accustomed to collectively owning privately owned cars for consumption as private cars, that is, whether a family owns a car, such as Chery QQ of more than 30,000 yuan, Jetta of 60,000 yuan, Beverly, Santana. And so on, is still a sport utility vehicle (SUV), such as BMW X5 million yuan, Dongfeng Honda CR-V more than two million yuan, or a multipurpose car (MPV), such as Guangzhou Honda Odyssey , Shanghai GM Buick GL8, as long as you or your family name has a private car not for operational purposes, congratulations, your family has entered the ranks of the car family.
So why should we study the separate classification of families with private cars? According to statistics, there are nearly 400 million households in the country. To study a large number of Chinese families, of course, there will be different methods of classification. For example, among nearly 400 million families, families without children are classified as Dink families. This classification is a method of sociological classification. In addition, we can also study the classification of families by the amount of wealth from the perspective of economics, and thus have the concept of a million-dollar family. For example, according to the Boston Consulting Group’s 2007 survey of household management assets in 62 countries and regions in the world, in 2007, the number of households with millions of US dollars of financial assets in China reached 391,000, and the company expects to have five from 2007 to 2012. During the year, China’s number of million-dollar households will maintain an annual compound growth rate of 14.6%. It is not difficult for us to discover that researching one million asset families is helpful to dissecting the wealth distribution patterns and trends of Chinese society.
The automotive family is a taxonomy that spans sociology and economics. It uses the family as a taxonomy for whether or not a family owns a private car. According to this classification standard, we can also study the new concept of broadband families, that is, whether the family accesses the information highway as the classification criteria. For example, iResearch's market consultations are based on eMarketer's research data on China's broadband applications. In 2010, China's broadband households including ADSL and cable broadband will reach 81.436 million households. The reason why we must separate broadband households from Chinese families for research is that broadband networks will, to a large extent, change a family’s information acquisition methods, entertainment and leisure methods, consumption patterns, and even learning methods. The direction of the family is of great significance. This is also the meaning of studying the automobile family.
An interesting phenomenon is that TVs, refrigerators, air conditioners and even motorcycles have also become large consumer goods that tempted the Chinese people at a particular historical stage. However, there is no single consumer product that, like a private car, will have such a large "reaction" to the family after it is owned by the family, and will have such far-reaching social influence and changes. Therefore, it is natural for no one to study "color TV family", "refrigerator family" or "motorcycle family".
(b) Automobile families: Social forces that reflect the rise of China So what changes will happen to an ordinary Chinese family after it owns a private car? First, there is a substantial increase in the radius of travel. Especially in the "Golden Week" and "small holiday", the "leisure function" of private cars was enlarged, which led to the upgrade of leisure consumption of the family and improved the quality of leisure.
Our country began to implement the long vacation system in 1999. In 2002, the people’s car purchase gradually entered a peak period. In 2003, China’s auto production reached 4 million, including 2.2 million passenger cars, making it the world’s fourth-largest automobile producer. The "blowout" market for the domestic car market for several years coincides with the "stabilization period" of the "Golden Week" holiday system. During this period, there are more and more private car owners, and more and more car families have also learned how to make use of the car to enjoy their leisure life through the "Golden Week" one by one.
For example, Beijingers have had "golden weeks" and "long vacations". There are options for self-driving trips such as Shanxi Tour, Shandong Tour, Tianjin Tour, Shanghai Tour and so on. With the "Beijing-Tibet Expressway," "Beijing-Harbin Expressway," "Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway," and "Beijing-Shanghai Expressway," and other national highway networks, it is very convenient and comfortable for people to travel by car. In the past, “trans-provincial tours†that could only be accomplished through the use of public transport such as airplanes and trains were now resorting to the carrier of private cars and the “Golden Week†period to become more personalized and more colorful leisure lifestyles.
Judging from the experience of developed countries in the auto industry, the development of the "leisure function" of private cars by the auto family is also gradual. According to experts, the process of car consumption in foreign countries is divided into three stages: The first stage is the period when the car is not popularized. At that time, the car is still a symbol of status and status. Only the rich can afford to use the car; the second stage. It is the popularization stage of automobiles that cars have become a means of transportation for the masses, and the penetration rate of automobiles has increased dramatically. At present, the developed countries of automobiles are entering the third stage, that is, the times when automobiles have become “a means to enrich lifeâ€, and people are concerned about the safety of automobiles. The requirements for environmental protection, comfort, information, and entertainment are getting higher and higher. Cars are no longer simple transportation tools, but are extensions of homes and offices, and they have become "all-powerful" tools of life.
In our country, most automotive families have just entered the second stage. It can thus be seen that the expansion, extension, and discovery of the functions of private cars are also a gradual process for some major cities in China that have just entered the automobile society. In this process, the auto family's lifestyle, leisure style, and consumption style are undergoing profound changes. From a magnification perspective, this change is also an important part of the great changes in the Chinese era.
This is not only due to the profound changes that families have in the possession of private cars. In recent years, in big cities such as Beijing, car families can choose to purchase larger, cheaper houses in locations far from the city center. The young people who have just worked are also the old Beijingers who moved out of the cottage life. There are millions of outsiders working in Beijing, whether they are living in Tiantongyuan, Yizhuang, Huairou, Shunyi, or Daxing or Yanqing, whether they are Xiali, QQ or Geely, the private car not only rounded the car dream of millions of families, but also to help some white-collar workers get rid of the dilemma of "dwelling" and help some families indirectly round their own "big room dream."
From a broader perspective, the regional economic boosters in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, ie, the rapid-traffic circle, will not be able to achieve substantial rapid inter-city communications if there is no expansion in the number of automobile families.
Thanks to private cars, car families can travel around the clock, no longer afraid of snow and ice; with private cars, the social circle of car families has been expanded, with car brands as the center and the Internet as the cohesive force, major car clubs. It has become a new hot spot for auto families to expand their social networks; because of private cars, the consumption patterns, consumption levels, and consumer awareness of auto families have been greatly upgraded; because of the private cars, the level of transportation civilization in the automobile family is increasing in urban traffic. China became more mature; because of private cars, citizens’ private property awareness and property rights awareness have been greatly improved...
Looking back at the large-scale entry of Chinese cars into Chinese families for more than two decades, private cars can only be afforded by people who had previously only become rich first, to become the “necessities†and trendy consumer goods of the middle class, and to become a common working class. Tools, and thousands of families with private cars, have become an important force in changing China’s economy and society and reflecting the rise of China. Its economic support comes from the rapid growth of per capita income in China’s large cities and the acceleration of local urbanization. In the future, China will face more profound economic and social changes and will not be able to separate from the development and growth of the number of automobile families.
(III) Car family: Forward-looking study In 1885, Karlo Mercedes-Benz used the self-made single-cylinder, water-cooled internal combustion engine in Mannheim, western Germany, to make the world's first three-wheeled vehicle. The Carl Benz home is arguably the world's first car family, and the "car family history" of Western developed countries can probably be written from here.
The history of the Chinese automobile family is much shorter. After the founding of New China, from the reform and opening up until now, who is the first domestic family with private cars? A domestic professional car magazine once sought this answer nationwide. From June 2008 to October of the same year, the magazine has launched a nationwide search for “the first family with a car†and eventually found owners of private cars in 1982.
Regardless of whether this selection is accurate or not, we can attest to an indisputable fact from the side. Until the end of the 1970s, the Chinese people had no economic power, no political environment, and no social foundation to have their own private home. The car, which was also the basis of the unusually weak Chinese auto industry at that time, was determined. In fact, China began to appear in the 80s of the last century as what we commonly call private cars.
In the 1990s, private car buyers appeared loose. In 1994, the State Council announced China's first “Auto Industry Industrial Policyâ€. The most important spirit is “The state encourages individuals to purchase cars....No place or department can intervene personally with the purchase and use of legitimate sources of automobiles by administrative and economic meansâ€. . In 2001, the family car started. In the original "China Seduction China," written by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Anding, the family car at that time was only a "candied fruit."
According to statistics, according to the experience of the world’s automotive development, when a country’s per capita GDP exceeds 1,000 US dollars, cars begin to enter the family. In 2003, China’s per capita GDP exceeded 1,000 U.S. dollars. It was also from this year that China’s car ownership began to increase substantially, increasing by nearly 20 million vehicles in four years.
In 2004, China's second "Automotive Industry Policy" was promulgated, clearly proposing "to promote private automobile consumption." Zhang Xiaoyu, executive vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry and director of the China Association of Automotive Engineers, once stated that after the new century, the biggest thing in China's auto industry is the tenth five-year plan, which was written for the first time: “Encouragement Cars enter the family, which has greatly promoted the Chinese auto market.
As China's per capita GDP has advanced to 3,000 US dollars and 4,000 US dollars, the consumption of domestic family cars has entered a period of rapid growth. According to the "Statistical Communique on National Economic and Social Development in 2008" released by the National Bureau of Statistics in early 2009, by the end of 2008, the number of civilian cars in the country was 24.38 million, an increase of 24.5%, of which 19.47 million were private cars, an increase of 28.0%. The total number of car ownership for the entire country reached 64.67 million (including three-wheeled vehicles and 14.92 million low-speed trucks), an increase of 13.5% from the end of the previous year, of which private car ownership was 41.73 million, an increase of 18.1%. At the end of 2007, the proportion of household cars owned by every 100 urban households in China is about 5%, which means that China has achieved a breakthrough in the family car between zero and 10 million. According to international experience, this growth momentum will continue until the vehicle ownership reaches 500 vehicles per 1,000 people, only to slow down or decline.
According to the data released by the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security in October 2010, the number of motor vehicles in China has reached 199 million, and more than 20 million new motor vehicles have been added every year; the number of motorized drivers is 205 million, of which 144 million are motorists. Every year, more than 22 million drivers are newly added.
However, please note that motor vehicles are a big concept and cover automobiles, special vehicles, special vehicles, trams, battery cars, three-wheeled motorcycles, two-wheeled motorcycles, four-wheeled agricultural vehicles, three-wheeled agricultural vehicles, and tractors. Trailers or semi-trailers and other types. To figure out the number of Chinese automobile families, we must also count the number of private cars in China. At present, the number of cars in China is more than 85 million. According to the data released by the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security in September 2009, as of the end of August 2009, the number of private cars in China was 23,773,791, which accounted for 81.89% of the total number of cars, an increase of 31.46% compared with the same period in 2008. In the first eight months of 2009, the number of private cars maintained a relatively rapid growth, and the monthly increase in private cars accounted for 45.42% of the monthly increase in private cars. Of the 23,773,791 private cars, less is the number of vehicles used for operation (such as private taxis), and the number of cars with more than two private cars in a family is the number of Chinese car families. Comparing with the base number of nearly 400 million households in Chinese society, compared with the base number of the hundreds of millions of households in China that have the ability to purchase cars, the number of automobile families in China in the future will have much room for growth.
China’s first private car is Beijing. In the first half of 2010, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing increased by 345,000, with an increase of nearly 60,000 vehicles per month, and an increase of nearly 2,000 vehicles per day. As of November 21, 2010, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing reached 4.67 million, driving The staff reached 6.197 million. According to analysis by Beijing Traffic Control Department, by the end of 2010, the total number of motor vehicles in Beijing will be close to 5 million. According to reports, motor vehicles and drivers have maintained a rapid growth trend since 2010, with an average daily increase of 1,900 vehicles. According to statistics, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing has increased from 3 million to 3.5 million vehicles in less than one and a half years, from 3.5 million to 4 million vehicles over a period of one year. At this rate, at the latest in the first half of 2011, Beijing’s motor vehicles could break through 5 million vehicles. According to the data released by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Development and Reform in November 2010, the ownership of household cars per 100 households in urban households in Beijing rose from 14.1 in 2005 to 29.6 in 2009, more than doubled.
It seems that automobile families are just emerging in China. If more than a decade ago, people were more interested in the family car and the new things in the family property and product level, after the car enters the family in a wide range, the trend of changes in the car household consumption behavior is studied, and the car family and car society are studied. The relationship between the automobile family and the scientific development in the next 10 or 20 years is an economic and social issue that needs urgent attention.
(4) From the automobile society to the automobile family When it comes to automobile families, we must mention the automobile society. Because the automotive family is a microcosmic constituent of the automobile society, the automobile society is a macro aggregation form of millions of automobile families.
After joining the World Trade Organization, China’s automobile production more than doubled in five years. In particular, in 2009, against the backdrop of the global financial crisis and the downturn in the automotive market, the Chinese auto industry went against the market and both sales and sales exceeded 13.6 million, making the Chinese auto market the largest new car market in the world. The data shows that the rapid growth of the Chinese automotive market is the power of private car buyers. It should be said that the “dream†that the industry experts proposed to make cars enter the family more than a decade ago has become a reality. The family car has become an important promoter driving the rapid growth of the national economy and the people’s quality of life. In turn, the automobile family is also our country. Quickly entered the car society laid the foundation.
Zhang Xiaojian, vice chairman of the China Federation of Machinery Industry and president of the China Automotive Engineering Society, said in Changchun in July 2010 that in 2009 China's auto industry output value has exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and profits and taxes have exceeded 300 billion yuan. At a related forum held in Beijing earlier this year, China’s independent auto technology and product development exhibition, the relevant leaders of the Department of Market System of the Ministry of Commerce introduced that China’s auto retail sales, especially those above the scale, have already accounted for the total amount of social consumer goods. %. In other words, the social consumption of 1 yuan, there are 0.27 yuan is contributed by the car. These figures can all prove that the auto industry is playing an increasingly important role in the growth of the national economy, the improvement of people’s living standards, and the stimulating of consumption.
However, with the advent of more and more automotive families, a series of factors that restrict automobile development such as energy, land, environment, and transportation have begun to emerge from the macro level. In recent years, more and more media and the public have begun to Attention has shifted from the microscopic level of family cars to the macro-level automobile society that has converged.
The automobile society is a certain stage of development of industrial society, especially with the appearance of a social phenomenon after the car has entered the family on a large scale. Internationally, it is generally believed that an important sign for an area to enter the automobile society is that the number of cars owned by every 100 households has reached about 20 vehicles. At present, China has developed cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Guangzhou to reach or close to this standard. It is estimated that in 2010, China will have more than 100 cities entering the narrow car society.
In fact, the automobile society has a broader meaning. The broad sense of the automobile society means that with the development of the times, cars in China are no longer the only means of transportation for people as they were a decade ago, and people's understanding of automobiles is no longer confined to the economic perspective of the industry. As the car moves into the homes of ordinary people, the automobile society has its own "social and molecular basis." Its main body has also been transformed from the past bus to the current private car. The tentacles and "impact" of the car have radiated to the culture. , law, ethics, environment, transportation, family, class and other social fields.
In particular, the central government called for the establishment and implementation of the scientific concept of development, which inspired people to observe China’s automobile society from a new perspective of harmony. It is not difficult for people to find that China’s automobile society is currently facing a series of acute economic and social contradictions such as the shortage of energy and land resources, the lag in construction of laws, regulations, and systems. How to build a harmonious automobile society in China where energy, land is in short supply, the number of people in the world is first, and the environmental sustainability is weak is a new topic that needs to be solved.
In my opinion, the most important thing in order to solve the problems of the automobile society is to handle the relationship between the macro automobile society and the micro-car family.
For example, how many kilometers does your home car run in a year? How much oil should I add? What is the total number of car-keeping expenses? How many greenhouse gases are emitted? I am afraid that not every Chinese car with a car can answer these questions. However, with the implementation of tax reforms on refined oil products on January 1, 2009, more and more automobile families in China have developed the habit of accounting for private cars. The reason is simple. Since the consumption tax per liter of gasoline rises to 1 yuan, how much liter of oil will be added each year will directly determine the amount of refined oil consumption tax paid by the owner, and how many kilometers can be run with these oils reflects the driving level of private owners. The driving habits and the scientific nature of vehicle purchase options.
Just on the last day of 2008, one day before the formal implementation of China's oil product tax reform, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an initiative to national motorists to call drivers to develop good driving habits for energy conservation and environmental protection and actively participate in energy conservation and emission reductions. . At first glance, the National Development and Reform Commission, which is responsible for macro functions, has focused its attention on the driver’s driving habits. It seems to be a bit "obtrusive." However, in fact, it is very necessary for the government to guide the driving habits of the automobile family, the constituent elements of the automobile society.
At present, China has become the world’s second largest oil consumer and the largest oil consumer in the world. Li Yongwu, president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, explained that in the first half of 2010, as China’s oil demand continued to grow, the foreign dependence on oil continued to increase. The expansion has reached 55.14%, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the apparent consumption of crude oil was 215 million tons, an increase of 18.6% year-on-year, and the external dependence was 54.26%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points year-on-year. In 2007, China’s oil imports have approached the 200 million tons mark; experts predict that if no corresponding measures are taken, by 2020, the gap between China’s oil supply and demand will reach 400 million tons. From this point of view, the small account book of energy saving for automobile families is directly related to the large book of China's automobile society and energy saving, and it is related to the overall national energy security.
According to data provided by the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s oil use efficiency is low and waste is serious. China’s oil consumption per unit of GDP and the fuel consumption per 100 km of motor vehicles are more than 20% higher than in developed countries. According to estimates by the relevant authorities, if China’s auto fuel consumption reaches the European average, it can save about 20 million tons of refined oil a year.
At present, it is necessary to achieve a major breakthrough in energy efficiency of automobiles. In addition to speeding up the upgrading of automotive products, it must be changed from the subtle driving habits and travel habits of millions of automobile families, starting from seemingly insignificant bits and pieces. . Dialectically, the fulcrum of inciting the social transformation of the macro automobile is how to mobilize the enthusiasm and initiative of the micro-car family.
Prof. Liang Xiaomin, a renowned economist, believes that almost everyone has a dream of a car. People at various automobile trade shows that an automobile era is coming. However, people who pay attention to car civilization are far less than those who want to realize a car dream. . If everyone does not care about car civilization, the realization of car dreams will be a disaster. Personal rational behavior will lead to social irrationality. Professor Liang Xiaomin's words point out the dialectical relationship between the micro-car family and the macro auto society.
Comrade Wu Jincai, deputy editor-in-chief of Xinhua News Agency, believes that as a symbolic and symbolic object of the society in which we live, the various phenomena that have occurred are not just the car itself. We can neither use a single-line causal relationship nor can we Explaining with a single factor requires a comprehensive observation of the facts from various angles, and explains the different aspects of the theory through various disciplines.
Therefore, we must not only study the macro automobile society, but also comprehensive economics and sociology and other research methods to see the micro-car family. Both are indispensable.
In January 2003, I was transferred to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Xinhua News Agency responsible for the automotive report. It has been more than six years. The "Car Society" published in August 2007 is my first book on automobiles. It provides a comprehensive view of the hidden problems of China's automobile society development from different angles and captures the development trend of China's automobile society. It is the second major transformation of China's automobile society. Give advice and suggestions. The "car family" should be regarded as a "car society" sister. "Car Society" mainly analyzes China's automobile industry, automotive civilization and automobile culture from the macro perspective. "Car Family" focuses more on the practicality and forward-looking nature of the micro-level. For families that already have cars or families that are preparing to buy cars, the "car family" may be more useful and informative.
I think that in the period from the 1980s to the 1990s when cars entered the Chinese family's enlightenment stage, family cars should be the keywords that lured Chinese society.
After entering the new century, with the maturity and popularity of private car consumption, it should be said that the “dreams†that experts in the industry put into the family car more than a decade ago have become a reality. The family car has become a fast-growing national economy. The masses are important promoters of improving the quality of life. However, with the realization of more and more people’s family car dreams, a series of factors that restrict automobile development such as energy, land, environment, and transportation also begin to emerge from the macro level, and more and more media and the public begin to pay attention. From the micro-level family car to the macro-level automobile society that has converged, the automobile society has become a new focus of attention from all walks of life.
In the course of my study of the automobile society, I deeply felt that it was impossible to avoid the importance of analyzing automobile families from the microscopic perspective. Since the entry of cars into the family is the beginning of social change and not the end, from a development perspective, families with private cars are exerting increasing influence on the changes in Chinese society.
As a Xinhua reporter from the beginning of the new century, I was fortunate enough to seize the keywords of automobile society and automobile family. In fact, from the “family sedan†to the “car society†and then from the “car society†to the “car familyâ€, the three keywords in one continuous line fully reflect the 30 years of reform and opening up. The focused topics and the progressive social resonance are also a microcosm of China’s social progress and economic transformation.
"Car Family" is a new book published by Xinhua News Agency reporter Nan Chen this year, which is based on China's near-term observation in the automobile society. It is also a companion book to its earlier publication "Automobile Society." The book records the author's in-depth observation and reflection on China's ascendant auto family in the past six years, and the ups and downs of the automobile family around China during the social transition. This book is now published by Nan Chen's exclusive authoritative Gasgoo.com website, so stay tuned!
Professor Wang Songqi, a well-known economist and deputy director of the Institute of Finance at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, prefaced the book:
In 2009, the throne of the "automobile kingdom" that the United States took for a hundred years was officially granted to China. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2009, China’s auto production and sales both broke through 13.5 million vehicles, reaching 13.79 million vehicles and 13.64 million vehicles, respectively, while the United States sold only 10.4 million vehicles in 2009 due to the financial crisis. It fell by 21% a year. According to experts' estimates, the number of Chinese household cars will increase by 15% in 2010, and the overall car sales are expected to exceed 17 million. From the long-term trend of stable and rapid macroeconomic development, the rapid expansion of the middle class in China, and the rapid increase in urban residents’ income, the potential of China’s auto market will continue to show stunning performance in the next 20 years. The above data shows that China, with its per capita GDP just close to US$4,000, has advanced to the automobile society in advance.
Car family is the premise of the automobile society. When the vast majority of urban households in China have become automobile families, and a considerable portion of China’s rural residents own automobiles, China’s automobile society stage has truly arrived. Our people of all ages have passed the era of material scarcity under the planned economic system. The urban families in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s were mostly tens of dollars per month to support a large family. The rich family standards of that era were the so-called “big fours†(bicycles, watches, sewing machines, radios). Have degree. Today, after the reform and opening up, our "young people in the 80s," especially the young generation in the "post-90s" generation, listened again to our "past stories." Most of them expressed their surprises or impatience, and they thought that these old stories were all It was deliberately compiled by adults for the purpose of "remembering hardships".
I clearly remember that when I was graduating from university in 1982 when I was graduating from university, I said, “Big Sister, I will come to Beijing in the future. You go to the gate and I will pick you up.†The older sister said, “You blow it.†!†Now, the big sister who thought I couldn’t afford a car at the time had two family cars. According to the income and living standards of the current year, no one would have thought that the speed of economic development in China in the past 30 years will be so rapid, and the people’s living standards will have such a substantial increase. It is a myth of China’s economic development that is continuous 30 The annual economic growth rate of over 9% has turned this into a reality. From a destitute society to an abundance society, from the family to the car family, Chinese urban residents are facing many new problems.
Xinhua News Agency reporter Nan Chen has captured the new changes in the structure of China’s social wealth in a timely manner with his keen and talented person. On the basis of his published book “Automobile Societyâ€, he also wrote the “Automobile Family†excellent manuscript. The classification of learning and economics constitutes a logic system that focuses on the consumption of private cars, from the “view of rights†of the automobile family, the sustainable development of the automobile family, and the “security concept†and “civilization concept†of the automobile family. The auto-family's troubles, expenditure burdens, and rural auto family trends, and the “low-carbon future†of the auto family are all novel and close to reality. I am not an expert on auto problems, but it is a driver with 20 years of driving experience, and of course, an economist. Therefore, from the perspective of drivers and theoretical researchers, I can make a simple comment on Nan Chen’s outstanding manuscript. . From the driver’s point of view, for each car family, the contents of Chapters 3, 4, 5, and 6 of the book are very applicable, and Chapter 6 “The small account book of the automobile family†is particularly nuanced; From the perspective of the person, the second chapter, “Sustainable Development of the Automobile Familyâ€, raises a very important question: “How many cars can China's land hold?†Before the Spring Festival in 2010, I participated in a The name was “invited by the leaders of the financial community in Beijingâ€. Wang Rulin, the governor of Jilin Province in my hometown, said in a painstaking introduction to the economic development of his hometown that Jilin Province had an advantage in the automobile industry, but that year we were in some models of family cars. The development did not seize the opportunity. At that time, the annual output of the design was too small. Why did we not consider the annual output of 500,000 vehicles or even 1 million vehicles of 2 million vehicles? So that some manufacturers in other provinces seized the opportunity to quickly develop. Governor Wang's remarks are of course very correct. In the regional economic competition, they often lead one step ahead. But at the time I immediately thought: Can so many cars be sold? How large is the capacity of China's auto market in a certain period? Nanchen's manuscript has attributed the market's market capacity to the carrying capacity of China's land, and ultimately to the struggle between the automobile and the crops in wheat and paddy fields, which left a very deep impression on me. According to the data cited by Nan Chen: In the United States, the average land used per vehicle is 0.07 hectares of roads and parking lots, which is calculated based on the 240 million U.S. car ownership in 2004 alone. The area of ​​land used for roads and parking lots in the United States is calculated. Estimated at 16 million hectares, this is almost the same area as the U.S. farmer used to grow wheat, so in China, which has a population of 1.3 billion people and about 400 million households, one day, when the number of cars reached close to two people and one car, that is 6.4 Billion vehicles and China’s vehicle area is only equivalent to 50% of the United States. Then, it also needs 22.4 million hectares. This large amount of land is calculated according to the average empirical yield, and can produce nearly 200 million tons of rice each year. This is my calculation. The calculations in Chen’s manuscript are somewhat conservative. His hypothesis is that if China had 640 million cars in the future, the area of ​​land to be paved would be 13 million hectares, and such a large site area could produce 122 million tons of rice. Even so, the prospects are. It is also unthinkable. As everybody knows, China’s annual food production in recent years is about 500 million tons. If we can use the land that can produce 1/4 of China’s grain for roads and parking lots, that is, China’s annual grain will be reduced directly or indirectly. More than 20%, then we must import the same amount of food from the international grain market. According to normal inferences: If China with 1.3 billion people needs more than 20% of the annual food demand to be met by imports, then the international food market will face the threat of collapse. . As of the end of 2009, China’s car ownership was 198 million vehicles, which will increase to 640 million vehicles in the near future, not to mention the supply of oil, and it will not be said that Beijing-Tibet Expressway will block traffic jams for more than a few days in Beijing. The capital has been renamed as "the first block," and it is only a huge threat to the world grain market. Therefore, when we think of the Chinese auto family and think about China's inevitable move into the automobile society in the future, we can really use " Looking ahead, shudder to describe.
Undoubtedly, the emergence of Chinese automobile families, the development of the Chinese auto industry, and the management and planning of the Chinese auto society must be incorporated into a comprehensive consideration. It must be as rigorous as when China implemented the family planning policy more than 20 years ago. Logical considerations. The unrestrained development and expansion of automobile families is certainly a disaster for China. To avoid this catastrophe, I am afraid that it is impossible to solve the problem by advocating the purchase of a small-displacement vehicle or engaging in a "free car day" activity for a short period of time. Indeed, we are now faced with a dilemma: On the one hand, the Chinese people have the right to pursue modernization. China’s officials at all levels hope that the automobile demand will be strong to stimulate the development of the auto industry; on the other hand, China’s red line of 1.82 billion mu of land, The urban management capabilities of our country and the negative impact of the expansion of automobile families have forced us to take precautions. Therefore, from now on, our macroeconomic managers should regard the structural transformation of automobile consumption and the substantial improvement of urban management as an important consideration. From this point, it can be said that the soon-to-be-introduced “Car Family†of Nan Chen not only has car families to look at, but also officials at all levels who have administrative duties in the bus should also read it well.
Nan Chen's Preface: Car Home Introduction (a) Why do I care about the car family What is a car family? The narrow interpretation is that at least a family with a private car. For a long time, the industry is accustomed to collectively owning privately owned cars for consumption as private cars, that is, whether a family owns a car, such as Chery QQ of more than 30,000 yuan, Jetta of 60,000 yuan, Beverly, Santana. And so on, is still a sport utility vehicle (SUV), such as BMW X5 million yuan, Dongfeng Honda CR-V more than two million yuan, or a multipurpose car (MPV), such as Guangzhou Honda Odyssey , Shanghai GM Buick GL8, as long as you or your family name has a private car not for operational purposes, congratulations, your family has entered the ranks of the car family.
So why should we study the separate classification of families with private cars? According to statistics, there are nearly 400 million households in the country. To study a large number of Chinese families, of course, there will be different methods of classification. For example, among nearly 400 million families, families without children are classified as Dink families. This classification is a method of sociological classification. In addition, we can also study the classification of families by the amount of wealth from the perspective of economics, and thus have the concept of a million-dollar family. For example, according to the Boston Consulting Group’s 2007 survey of household management assets in 62 countries and regions in the world, in 2007, the number of households with millions of US dollars of financial assets in China reached 391,000, and the company expects to have five from 2007 to 2012. During the year, China’s number of million-dollar households will maintain an annual compound growth rate of 14.6%. It is not difficult for us to discover that researching one million asset families is helpful to dissecting the wealth distribution patterns and trends of Chinese society.
The automotive family is a taxonomy that spans sociology and economics. It uses the family as a taxonomy for whether or not a family owns a private car. According to this classification standard, we can also study the new concept of broadband families, that is, whether the family accesses the information highway as the classification criteria. For example, iResearch's market consultations are based on eMarketer's research data on China's broadband applications. In 2010, China's broadband households including ADSL and cable broadband will reach 81.436 million households. The reason why we must separate broadband households from Chinese families for research is that broadband networks will, to a large extent, change a family’s information acquisition methods, entertainment and leisure methods, consumption patterns, and even learning methods. The direction of the family is of great significance. This is also the meaning of studying the automobile family.
An interesting phenomenon is that TVs, refrigerators, air conditioners and even motorcycles have also become large consumer goods that tempted the Chinese people at a particular historical stage. However, there is no single consumer product that, like a private car, will have such a large "reaction" to the family after it is owned by the family, and will have such far-reaching social influence and changes. Therefore, it is natural for no one to study "color TV family", "refrigerator family" or "motorcycle family".
(b) Automobile families: Social forces that reflect the rise of China So what changes will happen to an ordinary Chinese family after it owns a private car? First, there is a substantial increase in the radius of travel. Especially in the "Golden Week" and "small holiday", the "leisure function" of private cars was enlarged, which led to the upgrade of leisure consumption of the family and improved the quality of leisure.
Our country began to implement the long vacation system in 1999. In 2002, the people’s car purchase gradually entered a peak period. In 2003, China’s auto production reached 4 million, including 2.2 million passenger cars, making it the world’s fourth-largest automobile producer. The "blowout" market for the domestic car market for several years coincides with the "stabilization period" of the "Golden Week" holiday system. During this period, there are more and more private car owners, and more and more car families have also learned how to make use of the car to enjoy their leisure life through the "Golden Week" one by one.
For example, Beijingers have had "golden weeks" and "long vacations". There are options for self-driving trips such as Shanxi Tour, Shandong Tour, Tianjin Tour, Shanghai Tour and so on. With the "Beijing-Tibet Expressway," "Beijing-Harbin Expressway," "Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway," and "Beijing-Shanghai Expressway," and other national highway networks, it is very convenient and comfortable for people to travel by car. In the past, “trans-provincial tours†that could only be accomplished through the use of public transport such as airplanes and trains were now resorting to the carrier of private cars and the “Golden Week†period to become more personalized and more colorful leisure lifestyles.
Judging from the experience of developed countries in the auto industry, the development of the "leisure function" of private cars by the auto family is also gradual. According to experts, the process of car consumption in foreign countries is divided into three stages: The first stage is the period when the car is not popularized. At that time, the car is still a symbol of status and status. Only the rich can afford to use the car; the second stage. It is the popularization stage of automobiles that cars have become a means of transportation for the masses, and the penetration rate of automobiles has increased dramatically. At present, the developed countries of automobiles are entering the third stage, that is, the times when automobiles have become “a means to enrich lifeâ€, and people are concerned about the safety of automobiles. The requirements for environmental protection, comfort, information, and entertainment are getting higher and higher. Cars are no longer simple transportation tools, but are extensions of homes and offices, and they have become "all-powerful" tools of life.
In our country, most automotive families have just entered the second stage. It can thus be seen that the expansion, extension, and discovery of the functions of private cars are also a gradual process for some major cities in China that have just entered the automobile society. In this process, the auto family's lifestyle, leisure style, and consumption style are undergoing profound changes. From a magnification perspective, this change is also an important part of the great changes in the Chinese era.
This is not only due to the profound changes that families have in the possession of private cars. In recent years, in big cities such as Beijing, car families can choose to purchase larger, cheaper houses in locations far from the city center. The young people who have just worked are also the old Beijingers who moved out of the cottage life. There are millions of outsiders working in Beijing, whether they are living in Tiantongyuan, Yizhuang, Huairou, Shunyi, or Daxing or Yanqing, whether they are Xiali, QQ or Geely, the private car not only rounded the car dream of millions of families, but also to help some white-collar workers get rid of the dilemma of "dwelling" and help some families indirectly round their own "big room dream."
From a broader perspective, the regional economic boosters in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, ie, the rapid-traffic circle, will not be able to achieve substantial rapid inter-city communications if there is no expansion in the number of automobile families.
Thanks to private cars, car families can travel around the clock, no longer afraid of snow and ice; with private cars, the social circle of car families has been expanded, with car brands as the center and the Internet as the cohesive force, major car clubs. It has become a new hot spot for auto families to expand their social networks; because of private cars, the consumption patterns, consumption levels, and consumer awareness of auto families have been greatly upgraded; because of the private cars, the level of transportation civilization in the automobile family is increasing in urban traffic. China became more mature; because of private cars, citizens’ private property awareness and property rights awareness have been greatly improved...
Looking back at the large-scale entry of Chinese cars into Chinese families for more than two decades, private cars can only be afforded by people who had previously only become rich first, to become the “necessities†and trendy consumer goods of the middle class, and to become a common working class. Tools, and thousands of families with private cars, have become an important force in changing China’s economy and society and reflecting the rise of China. Its economic support comes from the rapid growth of per capita income in China’s large cities and the acceleration of local urbanization. In the future, China will face more profound economic and social changes and will not be able to separate from the development and growth of the number of automobile families.
(III) Car family: Forward-looking study In 1885, Karlo Mercedes-Benz used the self-made single-cylinder, water-cooled internal combustion engine in Mannheim, western Germany, to make the world's first three-wheeled vehicle. The Carl Benz home is arguably the world's first car family, and the "car family history" of Western developed countries can probably be written from here.
The history of the Chinese automobile family is much shorter. After the founding of New China, from the reform and opening up until now, who is the first domestic family with private cars? A domestic professional car magazine once sought this answer nationwide. From June 2008 to October of the same year, the magazine has launched a nationwide search for “the first family with a car†and eventually found owners of private cars in 1982.
Regardless of whether this selection is accurate or not, we can attest to an indisputable fact from the side. Until the end of the 1970s, the Chinese people had no economic power, no political environment, and no social foundation to have their own private home. The car, which was also the basis of the unusually weak Chinese auto industry at that time, was determined. In fact, China began to appear in the 80s of the last century as what we commonly call private cars.
In the 1990s, private car buyers appeared loose. In 1994, the State Council announced China's first “Auto Industry Industrial Policyâ€. The most important spirit is “The state encourages individuals to purchase cars....No place or department can intervene personally with the purchase and use of legitimate sources of automobiles by administrative and economic meansâ€. . In 2001, the family car started. In the original "China Seduction China," written by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Anding, the family car at that time was only a "candied fruit."
According to statistics, according to the experience of the world’s automotive development, when a country’s per capita GDP exceeds 1,000 US dollars, cars begin to enter the family. In 2003, China’s per capita GDP exceeded 1,000 U.S. dollars. It was also from this year that China’s car ownership began to increase substantially, increasing by nearly 20 million vehicles in four years.
In 2004, China's second "Automotive Industry Policy" was promulgated, clearly proposing "to promote private automobile consumption." Zhang Xiaoyu, executive vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry and director of the China Association of Automotive Engineers, once stated that after the new century, the biggest thing in China's auto industry is the tenth five-year plan, which was written for the first time: “Encouragement Cars enter the family, which has greatly promoted the Chinese auto market.
As China's per capita GDP has advanced to 3,000 US dollars and 4,000 US dollars, the consumption of domestic family cars has entered a period of rapid growth. According to the "Statistical Communique on National Economic and Social Development in 2008" released by the National Bureau of Statistics in early 2009, by the end of 2008, the number of civilian cars in the country was 24.38 million, an increase of 24.5%, of which 19.47 million were private cars, an increase of 28.0%. The total number of car ownership for the entire country reached 64.67 million (including three-wheeled vehicles and 14.92 million low-speed trucks), an increase of 13.5% from the end of the previous year, of which private car ownership was 41.73 million, an increase of 18.1%. At the end of 2007, the proportion of household cars owned by every 100 urban households in China is about 5%, which means that China has achieved a breakthrough in the family car between zero and 10 million. According to international experience, this growth momentum will continue until the vehicle ownership reaches 500 vehicles per 1,000 people, only to slow down or decline.
According to the data released by the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security in October 2010, the number of motor vehicles in China has reached 199 million, and more than 20 million new motor vehicles have been added every year; the number of motorized drivers is 205 million, of which 144 million are motorists. Every year, more than 22 million drivers are newly added.
However, please note that motor vehicles are a big concept and cover automobiles, special vehicles, special vehicles, trams, battery cars, three-wheeled motorcycles, two-wheeled motorcycles, four-wheeled agricultural vehicles, three-wheeled agricultural vehicles, and tractors. Trailers or semi-trailers and other types. To figure out the number of Chinese automobile families, we must also count the number of private cars in China. At present, the number of cars in China is more than 85 million. According to the data released by the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security in September 2009, as of the end of August 2009, the number of private cars in China was 23,773,791, which accounted for 81.89% of the total number of cars, an increase of 31.46% compared with the same period in 2008. In the first eight months of 2009, the number of private cars maintained a relatively rapid growth, and the monthly increase in private cars accounted for 45.42% of the monthly increase in private cars. Of the 23,773,791 private cars, less is the number of vehicles used for operation (such as private taxis), and the number of cars with more than two private cars in a family is the number of Chinese car families. Comparing with the base number of nearly 400 million households in Chinese society, compared with the base number of the hundreds of millions of households in China that have the ability to purchase cars, the number of automobile families in China in the future will have much room for growth.
China’s first private car is Beijing. In the first half of 2010, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing increased by 345,000, with an increase of nearly 60,000 vehicles per month, and an increase of nearly 2,000 vehicles per day. As of November 21, 2010, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing reached 4.67 million, driving The staff reached 6.197 million. According to analysis by Beijing Traffic Control Department, by the end of 2010, the total number of motor vehicles in Beijing will be close to 5 million. According to reports, motor vehicles and drivers have maintained a rapid growth trend since 2010, with an average daily increase of 1,900 vehicles. According to statistics, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing has increased from 3 million to 3.5 million vehicles in less than one and a half years, from 3.5 million to 4 million vehicles over a period of one year. At this rate, at the latest in the first half of 2011, Beijing’s motor vehicles could break through 5 million vehicles. According to the data released by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Development and Reform in November 2010, the ownership of household cars per 100 households in urban households in Beijing rose from 14.1 in 2005 to 29.6 in 2009, more than doubled.
It seems that automobile families are just emerging in China. If more than a decade ago, people were more interested in the family car and the new things in the family property and product level, after the car enters the family in a wide range, the trend of changes in the car household consumption behavior is studied, and the car family and car society are studied. The relationship between the automobile family and the scientific development in the next 10 or 20 years is an economic and social issue that needs urgent attention.
(4) From the automobile society to the automobile family When it comes to automobile families, we must mention the automobile society. Because the automotive family is a microcosmic constituent of the automobile society, the automobile society is a macro aggregation form of millions of automobile families.
After joining the World Trade Organization, China’s automobile production more than doubled in five years. In particular, in 2009, against the backdrop of the global financial crisis and the downturn in the automotive market, the Chinese auto industry went against the market and both sales and sales exceeded 13.6 million, making the Chinese auto market the largest new car market in the world. The data shows that the rapid growth of the Chinese automotive market is the power of private car buyers. It should be said that the “dream†that the industry experts proposed to make cars enter the family more than a decade ago has become a reality. The family car has become an important promoter driving the rapid growth of the national economy and the people’s quality of life. In turn, the automobile family is also our country. Quickly entered the car society laid the foundation.
Zhang Xiaojian, vice chairman of the China Federation of Machinery Industry and president of the China Automotive Engineering Society, said in Changchun in July 2010 that in 2009 China's auto industry output value has exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and profits and taxes have exceeded 300 billion yuan. At a related forum held in Beijing earlier this year, China’s independent auto technology and product development exhibition, the relevant leaders of the Department of Market System of the Ministry of Commerce introduced that China’s auto retail sales, especially those above the scale, have already accounted for the total amount of social consumer goods. %. In other words, the social consumption of 1 yuan, there are 0.27 yuan is contributed by the car. These figures can all prove that the auto industry is playing an increasingly important role in the growth of the national economy, the improvement of people’s living standards, and the stimulating of consumption.
However, with the advent of more and more automotive families, a series of factors that restrict automobile development such as energy, land, environment, and transportation have begun to emerge from the macro level. In recent years, more and more media and the public have begun to Attention has shifted from the microscopic level of family cars to the macro-level automobile society that has converged.
The automobile society is a certain stage of development of industrial society, especially with the appearance of a social phenomenon after the car has entered the family on a large scale. Internationally, it is generally believed that an important sign for an area to enter the automobile society is that the number of cars owned by every 100 households has reached about 20 vehicles. At present, China has developed cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Guangzhou to reach or close to this standard. It is estimated that in 2010, China will have more than 100 cities entering the narrow car society.
In fact, the automobile society has a broader meaning. The broad sense of the automobile society means that with the development of the times, cars in China are no longer the only means of transportation for people as they were a decade ago, and people's understanding of automobiles is no longer confined to the economic perspective of the industry. As the car moves into the homes of ordinary people, the automobile society has its own "social and molecular basis." Its main body has also been transformed from the past bus to the current private car. The tentacles and "impact" of the car have radiated to the culture. , law, ethics, environment, transportation, family, class and other social fields.
In particular, the central government called for the establishment and implementation of the scientific concept of development, which inspired people to observe China’s automobile society from a new perspective of harmony. It is not difficult for people to find that China’s automobile society is currently facing a series of acute economic and social contradictions such as the shortage of energy and land resources, the lag in construction of laws, regulations, and systems. How to build a harmonious automobile society in China where energy, land is in short supply, the number of people in the world is first, and the environmental sustainability is weak is a new topic that needs to be solved.
In my opinion, the most important thing in order to solve the problems of the automobile society is to handle the relationship between the macro automobile society and the micro-car family.
For example, how many kilometers does your home car run in a year? How much oil should I add? What is the total number of car-keeping expenses? How many greenhouse gases are emitted? I am afraid that not every Chinese car with a car can answer these questions. However, with the implementation of tax reforms on refined oil products on January 1, 2009, more and more automobile families in China have developed the habit of accounting for private cars. The reason is simple. Since the consumption tax per liter of gasoline rises to 1 yuan, how much liter of oil will be added each year will directly determine the amount of refined oil consumption tax paid by the owner, and how many kilometers can be run with these oils reflects the driving level of private owners. The driving habits and the scientific nature of vehicle purchase options.
Just on the last day of 2008, one day before the formal implementation of China's oil product tax reform, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an initiative to national motorists to call drivers to develop good driving habits for energy conservation and environmental protection and actively participate in energy conservation and emission reductions. . At first glance, the National Development and Reform Commission, which is responsible for macro functions, has focused its attention on the driver’s driving habits. It seems to be a bit "obtrusive." However, in fact, it is very necessary for the government to guide the driving habits of the automobile family, the constituent elements of the automobile society.
At present, China has become the world’s second largest oil consumer and the largest oil consumer in the world. Li Yongwu, president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, explained that in the first half of 2010, as China’s oil demand continued to grow, the foreign dependence on oil continued to increase. The expansion has reached 55.14%, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the apparent consumption of crude oil was 215 million tons, an increase of 18.6% year-on-year, and the external dependence was 54.26%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points year-on-year. In 2007, China’s oil imports have approached the 200 million tons mark; experts predict that if no corresponding measures are taken, by 2020, the gap between China’s oil supply and demand will reach 400 million tons. From this point of view, the small account book of energy saving for automobile families is directly related to the large book of China's automobile society and energy saving, and it is related to the overall national energy security.
According to data provided by the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s oil use efficiency is low and waste is serious. China’s oil consumption per unit of GDP and the fuel consumption per 100 km of motor vehicles are more than 20% higher than in developed countries. According to estimates by the relevant authorities, if China’s auto fuel consumption reaches the European average, it can save about 20 million tons of refined oil a year.
At present, it is necessary to achieve a major breakthrough in energy efficiency of automobiles. In addition to speeding up the upgrading of automotive products, it must be changed from the subtle driving habits and travel habits of millions of automobile families, starting from seemingly insignificant bits and pieces. . Dialectically, the fulcrum of inciting the social transformation of the macro automobile is how to mobilize the enthusiasm and initiative of the micro-car family.
Prof. Liang Xiaomin, a renowned economist, believes that almost everyone has a dream of a car. People at various automobile trade shows that an automobile era is coming. However, people who pay attention to car civilization are far less than those who want to realize a car dream. . If everyone does not care about car civilization, the realization of car dreams will be a disaster. Personal rational behavior will lead to social irrationality. Professor Liang Xiaomin's words point out the dialectical relationship between the micro-car family and the macro auto society.
Comrade Wu Jincai, deputy editor-in-chief of Xinhua News Agency, believes that as a symbolic and symbolic object of the society in which we live, the various phenomena that have occurred are not just the car itself. We can neither use a single-line causal relationship nor can we Explaining with a single factor requires a comprehensive observation of the facts from various angles, and explains the different aspects of the theory through various disciplines.
Therefore, we must not only study the macro automobile society, but also comprehensive economics and sociology and other research methods to see the micro-car family. Both are indispensable.
In January 2003, I was transferred to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Xinhua News Agency responsible for the automotive report. It has been more than six years. The "Car Society" published in August 2007 is my first book on automobiles. It provides a comprehensive view of the hidden problems of China's automobile society development from different angles and captures the development trend of China's automobile society. It is the second major transformation of China's automobile society. Give advice and suggestions. The "car family" should be regarded as a "car society" sister. "Car Society" mainly analyzes China's automobile industry, automotive civilization and automobile culture from the macro perspective. "Car Family" focuses more on the practicality and forward-looking nature of the micro-level. For families that already have cars or families that are preparing to buy cars, the "car family" may be more useful and informative.
I think that in the period from the 1980s to the 1990s when cars entered the Chinese family's enlightenment stage, family cars should be the keywords that lured Chinese society.
After entering the new century, with the maturity and popularity of private car consumption, it should be said that the “dreams†that experts in the industry put into the family car more than a decade ago have become a reality. The family car has become a fast-growing national economy. The masses are important promoters of improving the quality of life. However, with the realization of more and more people’s family car dreams, a series of factors that restrict automobile development such as energy, land, environment, and transportation also begin to emerge from the macro level, and more and more media and the public begin to pay attention. From the micro-level family car to the macro-level automobile society that has converged, the automobile society has become a new focus of attention from all walks of life.
In the course of my study of the automobile society, I deeply felt that it was impossible to avoid the importance of analyzing automobile families from the microscopic perspective. Since the entry of cars into the family is the beginning of social change and not the end, from a development perspective, families with private cars are exerting increasing influence on the changes in Chinese society.
As a Xinhua reporter from the beginning of the new century, I was fortunate enough to seize the keywords of automobile society and automobile family. In fact, from the “family sedan†to the “car society†and then from the “car society†to the “car familyâ€, the three keywords in one continuous line fully reflect the 30 years of reform and opening up. The focused topics and the progressive social resonance are also a microcosm of China’s social progress and economic transformation.
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