At the end of the year at the end of the year, everyone was busy looking at the harvest of the Year of the Rabbit and planning for the coming year. As a human being, sideways in the automotive industry, colleagues and readers who have many contacts with the automotive industry hope that the upcoming Golden Dragon will bring more prosperity. But as Charles? Dickens left a sentence in The Tale of Two Cities: This is the best time. This is also the worst time. When we are full of expectations for the future, we should be even more fearful because the tide has already begun to fade and the naked swimmers will finally surface.
People without thought, he must worry about. In the first eleven months of 2011, the accumulative growth rate of auto production and sales continued to decline. The growth rate of production was only 2%, and sales growth also fell below 3% for the first time. Although the annual production and sales volume will continue to increase compared to 2010, the growth rate is the lowest in the past 10 years.
Moreover, in the context of the declining growth rate of the overall market, the market share of self-owned brands has continued to decline. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in January-November, passenger cars sold a total of 5.2535 million self-owned brands, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year, accounting for 42.15% of the total sales of passenger cars, and the market share decreased by 3.28 percentage points from the same period of last year. .
Behind the numbers is the “growing pains†that self-owned brand cars have experienced since they experienced a decade of leaping development. Apart from the fact that the overall economic environment is chilling on the surface, and that major cities are out of restrictions on the purchase of environment and road resources, the deeper reason may be the bottleneck of the existing development path of domestic self-owned brand enterprises. Some industry experts have summarized the development path of domestic self-owned brands as “imitation low pricesâ€. Such a development path may be an effective competitive means in the initial stage of rapid market growth, but in the mature market environment where the market growth rate is stable, It may be suicidal behavior. Imitation can only be similar in form, but it can't be realized in the inner core technology. In the international market, the rise of Japanese and South Korean companies is an imitation of the breakthrough and the realization of the intrinsic core technology. Although domestic self-owned brand enterprises have begun to pay attention to the development of core technologies such as power systems in recent years, they are far away in the short term. Far from reaching the breakthrough point for achieving breakthroughs. Therefore, for a long time in the future, domestic self-owned brand enterprises will inevitably experience a painful but necessary phoenix nirvana process.
How long is this process? We can learn from Japanese and Korean companies' experience in the North American market. In the 60s and 70s of the last century, Japanese cars were synonymous with low-quality and low-quality cars. Japanese car companies represented by Toyota spent more than 10 years improving their technology and quality, and entered the US market in the 1980s. In the 1990s, the price of Korean cars in North America was only 60% of German cars, and 80% of Japanese cars, but they still could not sell. The Hyundai Group has worked hard for 10 years in technology and quality control, and by 2005 it has achieved catch-up with Japanese cars.
History rarely repeats, but experience can be learned. Based on the experience of Japan and South Korea companies, we can understand that there is no short cut in the accumulation of technology and the establishment of a quality system. If the domestic self-owned brand companies have such a persistent spirit as Toyota and Hyundai, they can do so. Technology and quality, then 10 years later, Made in China's domestic self-owned brands will be able to compete with Japanese and Korean products such as Germany and the United States on the same level.
In 10 years, it may be the time that most domestic independent brand companies are unwilling to wait. However, from the perspective of vehicle development and power system planning, it is only the time required to develop a generation of products and produce a generation of products. It is only the minimum time required for a mature technology development team to form the minimum time for establishing a reliable supplier system. In terms of technology accumulation, quality management, personnel training, and system building, they all have their own objective laws. We cannot achieve the so-called “leapfrog and leapfrog†from the constraints of objective laws, and we have to break away from the foundation of reality. The higher we jump, the more The more heavy the fall.
In the past 10 years, domestic self-owned brand enterprises have achieved more scale expansion. The annual output has increased from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, and further expanded to millions. From the multi-vehicle strategy of “better fight with more children†to the expansion of production capacity in factories nationwide, and further diversification and internationalization. Its main line is to think about growth, but in the next 10 years, more considerations need to be considered around “strengthening†and the shrinkage of the battle line will be inevitable. Independent brand companies need to consider how to use their limited resources to ensure the nurturing of their core competencies, increase product profitability to ensure long-term and stable investment in new technologies, control the size of enterprises to ensure the stability of core teams, and effectively use external resources to achieve Optimize the distribution of internal resources; inhibit the inner impulse of mergers and acquisitions to achieve the matching of enterprise size and ability; reject the temptation of the market and insist on high standards of technology and quality.
It is undeniable that this will be a painful process of nirvana. Many companies will find it very difficult to achieve success. But only after such a process can we see the "eagles" mentioned by TCL President Li Dongsheng in the next 10 years. The rebirth of the realization of the domestic automotive industry.
People without thought, he must worry about. In the first eleven months of 2011, the accumulative growth rate of auto production and sales continued to decline. The growth rate of production was only 2%, and sales growth also fell below 3% for the first time. Although the annual production and sales volume will continue to increase compared to 2010, the growth rate is the lowest in the past 10 years.
Moreover, in the context of the declining growth rate of the overall market, the market share of self-owned brands has continued to decline. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in January-November, passenger cars sold a total of 5.2535 million self-owned brands, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year, accounting for 42.15% of the total sales of passenger cars, and the market share decreased by 3.28 percentage points from the same period of last year. .
Behind the numbers is the “growing pains†that self-owned brand cars have experienced since they experienced a decade of leaping development. Apart from the fact that the overall economic environment is chilling on the surface, and that major cities are out of restrictions on the purchase of environment and road resources, the deeper reason may be the bottleneck of the existing development path of domestic self-owned brand enterprises. Some industry experts have summarized the development path of domestic self-owned brands as “imitation low pricesâ€. Such a development path may be an effective competitive means in the initial stage of rapid market growth, but in the mature market environment where the market growth rate is stable, It may be suicidal behavior. Imitation can only be similar in form, but it can't be realized in the inner core technology. In the international market, the rise of Japanese and South Korean companies is an imitation of the breakthrough and the realization of the intrinsic core technology. Although domestic self-owned brand enterprises have begun to pay attention to the development of core technologies such as power systems in recent years, they are far away in the short term. Far from reaching the breakthrough point for achieving breakthroughs. Therefore, for a long time in the future, domestic self-owned brand enterprises will inevitably experience a painful but necessary phoenix nirvana process.
How long is this process? We can learn from Japanese and Korean companies' experience in the North American market. In the 60s and 70s of the last century, Japanese cars were synonymous with low-quality and low-quality cars. Japanese car companies represented by Toyota spent more than 10 years improving their technology and quality, and entered the US market in the 1980s. In the 1990s, the price of Korean cars in North America was only 60% of German cars, and 80% of Japanese cars, but they still could not sell. The Hyundai Group has worked hard for 10 years in technology and quality control, and by 2005 it has achieved catch-up with Japanese cars.
History rarely repeats, but experience can be learned. Based on the experience of Japan and South Korea companies, we can understand that there is no short cut in the accumulation of technology and the establishment of a quality system. If the domestic self-owned brand companies have such a persistent spirit as Toyota and Hyundai, they can do so. Technology and quality, then 10 years later, Made in China's domestic self-owned brands will be able to compete with Japanese and Korean products such as Germany and the United States on the same level.
In 10 years, it may be the time that most domestic independent brand companies are unwilling to wait. However, from the perspective of vehicle development and power system planning, it is only the time required to develop a generation of products and produce a generation of products. It is only the minimum time required for a mature technology development team to form the minimum time for establishing a reliable supplier system. In terms of technology accumulation, quality management, personnel training, and system building, they all have their own objective laws. We cannot achieve the so-called “leapfrog and leapfrog†from the constraints of objective laws, and we have to break away from the foundation of reality. The higher we jump, the more The more heavy the fall.
In the past 10 years, domestic self-owned brand enterprises have achieved more scale expansion. The annual output has increased from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, and further expanded to millions. From the multi-vehicle strategy of “better fight with more children†to the expansion of production capacity in factories nationwide, and further diversification and internationalization. Its main line is to think about growth, but in the next 10 years, more considerations need to be considered around “strengthening†and the shrinkage of the battle line will be inevitable. Independent brand companies need to consider how to use their limited resources to ensure the nurturing of their core competencies, increase product profitability to ensure long-term and stable investment in new technologies, control the size of enterprises to ensure the stability of core teams, and effectively use external resources to achieve Optimize the distribution of internal resources; inhibit the inner impulse of mergers and acquisitions to achieve the matching of enterprise size and ability; reject the temptation of the market and insist on high standards of technology and quality.
It is undeniable that this will be a painful process of nirvana. Many companies will find it very difficult to achieve success. But only after such a process can we see the "eagles" mentioned by TCL President Li Dongsheng in the next 10 years. The rebirth of the realization of the domestic automotive industry.
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