In the recent period, according to domestic data reflecting the basic data of industrial production, especially the chemical industry, the domestic chemical industry is emerging from the gloom of the crisis, and a number of data are showing a growth trend.
For the domestic chlor-alkali industry, except for the third quarter, the production and export volume of the two major PVC products, including caustic soda, have increased year-on-month. From the perspective of the third-quarter operating conditions announced by chlor-alkali and related industries, the entire chlor-alkali industry The industry has also begun to show signs of turning. The upcoming October industry data is also likely to be in good shape. However, in the face of encouraging data, companies should also take the initiative to think that the recovery of such a chlor-alkali industry has no guarantee of efficiency and whether the industry can achieve a healthy and orderly recovery.
First of all, the driving force for this round of economic recovery comes mainly from policy stimulus, especially fiscal policy. In the context of sluggish external demand and a rapid decline in exports, they mainly rely on expanding investment demand to stimulate economic growth. For the downstream market of chlor-alkali products, despite experiencing a traditional peak season, the overall situation has not reached the level of previous years. The forthcoming fourth quarter is also the off-season of downstream demand. Therefore, the current recovery is not yet supported by reliable downstream demand.
Second, under the general environment of encouraging investment and expanding domestic demand, the country will most likely exacerbate or cause new excess capacity. Although the 4 trillion investment has no direct impact on the chlor-alkali industry, in this environment, the impulse of local investment also causes excess capacity in the industry. In the second half of 2009, there were a large number of new chlor-alkali expansion projects in the country, including large-scale centralized construction of large enterprises. The impact of these production capacities on the markets that were originally lacking in demand will not be overlooked in the near future.
At present, the state has more and more clear control signals for the production capacity of many domestic industries. On August 26 this year, the State Council Executive Meeting proposed to curb the overcapacity in some industries, duplicate construction, and guide the healthy development of the industry. On September 26, the State Council officially issued a notice of No. 38 document to curb excess production capacity and guide the opinions on the healthy development of the industry; On October 19th, ten ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “Suppression of Overcapacity and Repeated Construction in Some Industries†opinion, requesting various ministries and commissions to “do their part†and further implement Document 38. The state will carry out a new round of regulation on overcapacity and redundant construction in some industries.
Poor demand and overcapacity may cause vicious competition in the market, making it difficult for the company to increase its economic efficiency, and may ultimately affect the overall economic recovery process. At the same time, these factors will also slow down the process of industrial restructuring and affect the quality of the recovery of the entire chlor-alkali industry.
Therefore, at the moment when the recovery of the entire chlor-alkali industry has begun to take shape, various problems such as the market downturn and overcapacity that occur during the recovery of the industry should be analyzed and resolved in a timely manner. For existing enterprises, product structure adjustment should be strengthened. For new expansion projects, product planning should be done better. Only when the industry recovery process is solved in a timely manner, can the whole industry be fully recovered in a healthy and orderly manner.
For the domestic chlor-alkali industry, except for the third quarter, the production and export volume of the two major PVC products, including caustic soda, have increased year-on-month. From the perspective of the third-quarter operating conditions announced by chlor-alkali and related industries, the entire chlor-alkali industry The industry has also begun to show signs of turning. The upcoming October industry data is also likely to be in good shape. However, in the face of encouraging data, companies should also take the initiative to think that the recovery of such a chlor-alkali industry has no guarantee of efficiency and whether the industry can achieve a healthy and orderly recovery.
First of all, the driving force for this round of economic recovery comes mainly from policy stimulus, especially fiscal policy. In the context of sluggish external demand and a rapid decline in exports, they mainly rely on expanding investment demand to stimulate economic growth. For the downstream market of chlor-alkali products, despite experiencing a traditional peak season, the overall situation has not reached the level of previous years. The forthcoming fourth quarter is also the off-season of downstream demand. Therefore, the current recovery is not yet supported by reliable downstream demand.
Second, under the general environment of encouraging investment and expanding domestic demand, the country will most likely exacerbate or cause new excess capacity. Although the 4 trillion investment has no direct impact on the chlor-alkali industry, in this environment, the impulse of local investment also causes excess capacity in the industry. In the second half of 2009, there were a large number of new chlor-alkali expansion projects in the country, including large-scale centralized construction of large enterprises. The impact of these production capacities on the markets that were originally lacking in demand will not be overlooked in the near future.
At present, the state has more and more clear control signals for the production capacity of many domestic industries. On August 26 this year, the State Council Executive Meeting proposed to curb the overcapacity in some industries, duplicate construction, and guide the healthy development of the industry. On September 26, the State Council officially issued a notice of No. 38 document to curb excess production capacity and guide the opinions on the healthy development of the industry; On October 19th, ten ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “Suppression of Overcapacity and Repeated Construction in Some Industries†opinion, requesting various ministries and commissions to “do their part†and further implement Document 38. The state will carry out a new round of regulation on overcapacity and redundant construction in some industries.
Poor demand and overcapacity may cause vicious competition in the market, making it difficult for the company to increase its economic efficiency, and may ultimately affect the overall economic recovery process. At the same time, these factors will also slow down the process of industrial restructuring and affect the quality of the recovery of the entire chlor-alkali industry.
Therefore, at the moment when the recovery of the entire chlor-alkali industry has begun to take shape, various problems such as the market downturn and overcapacity that occur during the recovery of the industry should be analyzed and resolved in a timely manner. For existing enterprises, product structure adjustment should be strengthened. For new expansion projects, product planning should be done better. Only when the industry recovery process is solved in a timely manner, can the whole industry be fully recovered in a healthy and orderly manner.
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