At the beginning of the year, the overall sales of the automobile industry increased significantly under the influence of the auto consumption stimulus plan. However, careful analysis of the sub-sectors is a matter of concern. According to the latest auto industry monthly data released by the Automobile Industry Association, in the first nine months of this year, total car sales were 9.662 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, and an increase of 17% compared to the previous period, exceeding the sales volume of the previous year. Affected by the half-price reduction of purchase tax for vehicles with models below 1.6L at the beginning of the year, the sales volume of cars with displacement below 1.6L grew most rapidly, up 55.64% year-on-year.
However, it is still unclear whether the policy of halving the purchase tax will continue next year. Industry analysts generally believe that there will be some uncertainty in the sales of small-displacement passenger vehicles next year. In stark contrast to this, signs of recovery in the heavy-duty truck industry are gradually becoming clear.
In October, listed companies in the heavy truck industry began to announce three quarterly reports. On the 24th, Weichai Power (000338) released three quarterly reports, achieving a earnings per share of 2.86 yuan in the first three quarters and 1.39 yuan per share in the third quarter, a record high. Subsequently, Dongfeng Motor (600006) and Foton Motor (600166) successively issued three quarterly reports, of which Foton Motor expects net profit to increase by more than 150% over the same period of last year.
The three quarterly reports of heavy truck-related industries have exceeded the expectations of industry analysts, and the single-quarter performance in the third quarter has achieved substantial growth. At the same time, we also noticed that some heavy truck companies are stepping up efforts to set up factories.
On September 28, Jianghuai Automobile and NC2 Global LLC signed a framework agreement for joint venture and cooperation of medium- and heavy-duty trucks. The two parties intend to establish a Sino-foreign joint venture company, mainly responsible for the production, manufacturing and sales of medium-heavy trucks and truck parts.
Recently, Foton Motor also plans to invest 1.3 billion yuan to build the second heavy truck plant in Huairou, which will increase the total capacity of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to more than 100,000 vehicles to meet future production requirements.
Heavy truck industry recovery
Compared with the characteristics of unstable competition in the car industry and large fluctuations in profits, the heavy-duty card industry has a relatively stable competitive landscape. The leading companies have a more stable market position and a stronger living environment than the car industry.
The high technical requirements for heavy trucks have determined that their entry barriers are high. If they cannot achieve a certain scale of production and sales, it is difficult to achieve profitability. After years of competition, the average profit level of the industry is low, and new entrants are less in the car industry. At the same time, existing leading companies have comprehensive advantages in technology, quality standards, brands, and sales networks, and new entrants have limited opportunities for development.
The data for the past five years shows that the market size of the top five industries exceeds 82% and the market concentration is high. CNHTC, FAW Group, Dongfeng Motor, Shaanxi Automobile Group and Beiqi Foton have been among the top five in the industry. In recent days, the market share of CNHTC, Shaanxi Automobile Group and Beiqi Futian has been continuously increasing.
According to the integrity of the product, heavy trucks can be divided into heavy trucks, non-integrated vehicles (heavy truck chassis) and semi-trailer tractors. Heavy trucks have a wide range of downstream applications, mainly as logistics and transportation (heavy-duty trucks and semi-trailer tractors), followed by construction (heavy-duty truck-based chassis).
Judging from the current situation, heavy truck chassis is still the largest sub-sector in the heavy truck industry, accounting for nearly 50% of the heavy truck industry; followed by semitrailer tractors, accounting for about 30%; heavy trucks account for the lowest proportion, at 20% about.
In the first half of 2008, due to the impact of China's implementation of the national II to State III emission standard switching policy, there was a wave of blowouts in the heavy truck market, which also overdrawn the demand in the second half of the year. Subsequently, coupled with the sluggish macro economy, the performance of the heavy-duty truck industry has turned sharply.
Until February of this year, sales of heavy trucks were only stimulated by the country’s 4 trillion yuan investment, which has been restored. However, after April, sales of non-integrated vehicles declined, while the recovery process of semitrailer tractors was slow, and the performance of heavy truck companies was again tested. Now this situation has begun to turn for the better.
The monthly data of the auto industry shows that in September, 66,000 heavy trucks (including non-integrated vehicles) were sold, reaching a new high during the year, and cumulative sales increased by -5.5% year-on-year. Although the cumulative sales have not yet turned positive, the single-month growth has remained above 70% for three consecutive months since the third quarter.
Among them, semi-trailer tractors have maintained a growth rate of more than 80% year-on-year for three consecutive months while maintaining an eight month-on-month growth. Non-integrated vehicles have also witnessed a sequential growth of two months in a row, and a positive growth for the first time year-on-year. Good recovery.
Generally speaking, the heavy truck industry has a certain periodicity, and there is a positive correlation with the increase in fixed asset investment. Ping Yu Securities industry analyst Yu Bing estimated based on historical experience and data that about 1% of the investment amount was used to purchase transportation vehicles directly related to construction. The national investment plan (including reconstruction after the Sichuan disaster) will generate new demand for certain heavy trucks. In 2009, it will add 37,600 vehicles, which is equivalent to about 6.7% of the total industry production and sales volume.
In addition, Yu Bing also believes that major project construction will also increase the transportation demand for steel materials, cement and other building materials and equipment (between the material's production areas and construction sites). According to a rough estimate, 4 trillion investment can drive about 100 million tons of steel demand. In addition, about 11,500 tons of cement are needed for every one billion yuan investment. From this, we can judge that the demand for raw material transportation will increase with the expansion of investment, and the pulling effect of heavy trucks will become more apparent.
Judging from the current economic situation, the good trend of the heavy truck industry will continue. Yu Bing predicts that the growth rate of heavy truck sales in the next year will be around 15%. Researchers at Zhongyuan Securities believe that this trend may peak in the first half of next year.
Semi-trailer to become the future
Although the overall recovery of the heavy-duty truck industry has occurred, the recovery process of various sub-sectors is not the same. In theory, according to the construction steps of fixed assets investment, there will be three links and one leveling, followed by the construction phase of the main project, which will result in a large number of long-distance material transportation requirements. The heavy truck industry corresponds to the first recovery of dump trucks, etc., which are matched with construction machinery. The heavy trucks used in logistics and transportation are warming up.
Since the economic crisis, semi-trailer tractors have been the most seriously affected. In March 2008, the monthly sales volume reached 33,000 units, accounting for 36% of the heavy-duty truck industry. Although this year has seen a sequential increase of eight months, The highest monthly sales volume was only 28,000 units, and the proportion in the industry fell to less than 30%.
The decline in the sales of tractor-trailers was mainly due to the decline in international trade caused by the global financial crisis, the decline in container throughput, and the decrease in demand for tractor-trailers. With the development of a large number of infrastructure projects and continuous economic and economic development, the demand for highway and port logistics has increased. In the second half of the year, the purchase of heavy-duty vehicles for logistics, especially semitrailer tractors, has continued to pick up.
In the first nine months, the cumulative growth rate of heavy-duty trucks was 8.5% year-on-year, and the cumulative growth rate was 2.9% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales of semitrailer tractors was approximately 136,300, a decrease of 22.82% compared with 176,600 vehicles in the same period of last year. Semitrailer tractors have become a major factor in dragging the recovery of the heavy truck industry.
However, from a trend point of view, the sales volume of semi-trailer vehicles in September reached 28,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.16%, maintaining a continuous sequential growth since January of this year, and the cumulative year-on-year drop also maintained a downward trend. Starting in May, the recovering increase in sales of semi-trailers took over the sales of the engineering dump trucks that first recovered in the first half of the year and became an important pillar of the market.
The data shows that since April, the total freight volume has started to show a clear upward trend. The total freight volume in that month has exceeded the level of the same period in 2007 and 2008, the impact of the financial crisis has begun to gradually weaken, and the trend of the freight logistics industry to resume growth is very strong. obvious.
In addition, industry analysts at BOC believe that from the policy perspective, the prospects for semi-trailers in the future are equally optimistic.
First of all, because the original road maintenance fee was approved according to the number of tonnages, the tonnage of towing tractors is generally higher than the number of large tonnage trucks because the tonnage of the households is usually higher than that of trucks. Therefore, the cancellation of the road maintenance fee will benefit the semi-trailer even more.
Second, since the self-weight of the semi-trailer is lighter than that of a truck with the same load class, it is possible to transport more cargoes and therefore show stronger economic effects in the event that the overloading of the semi-trailer and the toll-by-weight charge limit the total weight of the heavy truck. .
Finally, the revocation of Class 2 highway toll stations will benefit the entire heavy truck industry. The reduction in tolls will greatly reduce the burden on road transport vehicles.
In listed companies, due to differences in the product structure and product characteristics of the various heavy truck companies, the degree of benefit is not the same.
Sinotruk's semi-trailer products focus on 10L displacement and heavier weight. Under the environment of national toll-by-weight and total weight restrictions, the 8-9L semi-trailer products such as Foton Motors and Dongfeng Motor are more suitable for domestic road transport because of their lighter weight. Since May, the sales volume of Foton Motors and Dongfeng Motors has increased significantly, and CNHTC's share of the semi-trailer market has gradually dropped to less than 10%.
In the sales of Foton Motor's heavy trucks in the first half of the year, heavy trucks accounted for 54%, semitrailer tractors accounted for 42%, and medium trucks accounted for 4%. The company's advantages in heavy-duty trucks are mainly semi-trailer tractors, with a market share of 21.7% in the first half of the year.
In 2008, China's truck industry accounted for 36% of semitrailer tractors sold. At that time, the proportion of semitrailer tractors in Futian trucks was as high as 57%, far higher than the industry average. Undoubtedly, the high percentage of semitrailer tractors enables Foton Motor to benefit from the recovery of road transport vehicles to a greater extent.
Dongfeng Motor is mainly engaged in Dongfeng Light Trucks, Zhengzhou Nissan and Dongfeng Cummins Engines. Its profit mainly depends on Dongfeng Cummins. In 2009, Cummins failed to benefit from the recovery of the heavy truck industry mainly due to the Steyr series. Its contribution to performance was reduced from 131% in 2008 to 61.95% in the first half of 2009.
Since the third quarter, the sales volume and profitability of Dongfeng Cummins has improved significantly. From July onwards, the engine changed its trend in the first half of the year, with monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units. In the third quarter, it achieved sales of 39,500 vehicles, a 45% increase from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3%. The engine business invested in the company in the third quarter. The contribution of revenue was close to 100 million yuan, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year, and an increase of 81.5% from the previous quarter. Undoubtedly, with the recovery of the heavy truck industry, Dongfeng Cummins has significantly improved its operating conditions.
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