"Buying a car will certainly buy an automatic transmission. Since it is a means of transportation, comfort and saving are the key. Beijing traffic jams. The manual transmission of the car is too tired." Recently, Mr. Wang, who just got a driver's license, was ready to buy a car, admitting that the automatic transmission It is the best choice and tells reporters that many of the students in his driving school share the same feeling.
Car manual transmission will be replaced
According to the prediction of German ZF company, by 2010, the global automatic transmission will account for 55% of the market share. By 2012, more than 94% of passenger cars sold in the North American market will be equipped with automatic transmissions, which will reach 90% in South America and Canada. By 2013, the number of cars equipped with automatic transmissions in the European market will reach 48%. Another report shows that in commercial vehicles such as heavy trucks, the proportion of automatic transmissions is also increasing. In 1996, the proportion of automatic transmissions in heavy-duty trucks was only 5%, and it rose to 18% in 2006.
Today, automatic transmissions have become the first choice for new cars and light commercial vehicles in North America and Japan. At present, 90% of the high-end passenger cars equipped with automatic transmissions have been installed in the world, and the mid-range and low-grade passenger cars are nearly 60% and 40% respectively.
Although Europe has always dominated manual transmission, the market share of automatic transmissions is very different from that of the United States. However, the overbearing dominance of manual transmissions is over. According to recent statistics from the European Automobile Manufacturers and Distributors Association, the UK is equipped with an automatic transmission that accounts for 15% of the total vehicle fleet. Five years ago, this figure was 13.5%.
According to the latest data from the US car consulting company CSM, in 2007, the Chinese passenger car market (including cars, SUVs, and MPVs) will have an automatic transmission market share of 36%. By 2013, this figure will rise to about 45%.
The steady increase in the market share of automatic transmissions outside the North American and Japanese markets underlines the development trend of the transmission industry. From the perspective of the global market, automatic cars are becoming more and more popular. With the increasing number of car ownership, the proportion of manual vehicles will continue to decrease.
Professor Ge Anlin, Director of Automotive Transmission Engineering Research Center of Jilin University, is optimistic about the development of automatic transmissions. He told reporters that the automatic transmission has occupied a dominant position in the American automobile market, with Japanese new cars accounting for about 80% and Europe reaching 20% ​​to 30%. "In the future, the manual transmission of cars will gradually be replaced. This is the general trend."
The automatic transmission market Who will dominate the difficult determinism
Nowadays, the transmissions on the market are mainly divided into manual (MT) and automatic. The automatic transmissions can be subdivided into traditional hydraulic automatic transmissions (AT), electronically controlled mechanical automatic transmissions (AMT), and metal belts. Transmission (CVT), dual clutch transmission (DCT), etc.
At present, from the global transmission market, AT in the North American market, CVT in the Japanese market, MT in the European market leading the trend. With the global trend of shifting the manual transmission to automatic, the development potential of automatic transmissions in the European and Chinese markets is huge. According to the forecast of relevant agencies, by 2013, the European transmission market will have 10% of AMT equipped, 2% will be equipped with CVT, 16% will be equipped with DCT, and 20% will be equipped with AT.
Expanded with DCT. AT's market share will decline, but it will be difficult to determine who will dominate.
Wang Shengtang, secretary-general of the China Gear Professional Association, said recently that the R&D focus of China's gear industry will be on automatic transmissions.
As early as 2005, the expert committee of China Gear Association and Automobile Association formulated the development thinking of China's automatic transmission assembly: "Prioritize the development of CVT, AMT, timely development of DCT, and proper production of AT."
However, Professor Ge Anlin predicts that with the rapid changes in technology, the traditional AT will definitely develop into other new types of automatic transmissions. The possibility of CVT development in China is not very high. The DCT that is actually born out of manual transmissions may have an impact on the future automatic transmission market. Bring a great deal of influence, especially in the Chinese and European markets, it should be the direction of AMT improvement and improvement.
Professor Song Jian, deputy dean of the Institute of Automotive Engineering at Tsinghua University, believes that the sales of automatic transmissions in the European market will certainly increase. Each type of transmission has its own drawbacks. Each country also has its own traditions and national conditions. Which technology to give priority to? There will be different strategies, and new technologies will continue to emerge. It is very likely that new and more satisfactory transmissions will be born in the future.
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