Recently, a number of organizations report that the high visibility of the LED industry confirms that the short-term correction will usher in a golden opportunity. Or affected by this atmosphere, the LED sector rose sharply today. According to industry insiders, whether it is an international first-line lighting giant such as Philips or Osram, or LED industry chain companies such as South Korea and Taiwan, they are optimistic about the LED lighting market and continue to increase investment.
In January, our view on the LED industry is that “the first half of the year is not worried about demand, and we should not worry about supply in the second half of the yearâ€. Recently we investigated the LED industry chain and entered the industry peak season in March. The strong orders of lighting manufacturers verified the first half of our opinion. Sentence, and the chip maker's entangled mentality for expansion makes us more optimistic about the supply and demand relationship of LED chips this year.
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LED lighting demand is strong: In 2014, the price of LED lighting products further declined. The price of 5WLED bulbs replacing 40W incandescent lamps has reached 10-15 yuan, and the terminal price of 16WT8 lamps has dropped below 40 yuan. Actively vying for market share, LED lighting products shipments have increased significantly. We expect that the LED business of several large domestic lighting companies will achieve a growth of around 100 in 2014, and the revenue ratio will be close to 50;
Investment in upstream chip equipment is still at a low point: Although the demand for LED chips has continued to flourish since the second half of 2013, the orders of Veeco and Aixtron equipment manufacturers are still at the bottom of history, and the number of MOCVD shipments in the fourth quarter has further dropped to 40 units. There are not many chip manufacturers who have real desire to expand production;
The expansion of the chip factory is in a tangled phase: the strong demand for LED lighting has driven the demand for chips. In March, the first- and second-line chip factories have basically entered the full production stage, due to the introduction of new devices with higher cost performance for the two major equipment manufacturers, Veeco and Aixtron. It is expected that the chip factory is currently in a hesitant phase of capacity expansion. We expect this state to continue to the finalization of the new MOCVD model, which will increase the possibility of tight supply of chips during the peak season.
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