The newly enacted new access system is applicable until December 31, 2010. Compared with the standards issued by the Development and Reform Commission in 2007, the standards set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have refined the products of the three technical stages of new energy vehicles. The new access system provides more specific regulations for the development and operation of different types of new energy vehicles. "This entry standard marks the entry of China's new energy automotive industry into the speeding period," said industry experts.
What surprised the industry is a new regulation. "The use of lead-acid battery hybrid passenger cars, pure electric passenger cars and pure electric commercial vehicles, and the use of metal hydride nickel-powered hybrid passenger cars are listed as mature Period products.
For a while, the market was uproar: Lithium battery vehicles that had the loudest appeal were included in the development period and were not included in the large-scale promotion. In other words, Lithium battery electric vehicles favored by Warren Buffett have been defeated by NiMH hybrid batteries.
Why did the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launch such a new energy vehicle development roadmap? Can this roadmap eventually become the best "catalyst" for China's new energy industry restructuring? Can China's express trains help China catch new energy and achieve unconventional surpassing?
Who will lead the new energy car
Ni-MH battery and lithium battery, who will dominate the future of China's new energy vehicles?
Li Shengmao, a researcher at China Investment Advisor New Energy Automobile Industry, pointed out that the prospects for the development of power lithium-ion battery vehicles in new energy vehicles are currently optimistic. However, the standards set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are not conducive to the popularization and promotion of lithium battery vehicles nationwide. Further, This may hamper the overall development of China's new energy automotive industry.
Nickel-metal hydride batteries that have been favored by the Ministry of Industry have their own shortcomings. Wang Tianshun, director of the technical service center of the electric vehicle special committee of the China Electrotechnical Society, also stated that although China has rich hydrogen storage materials, the refining technology is not high, the consistency of the battery pack is poor, technical problems have not yet broken through, and the cost of nickel-metal hydride batteries has always been high. Highly high.
After the introduction of the new energy automobile access rules last week, BYD, the largest player of lithium batteries in the Chinese new energy industry, said in an interview with the reporter of the magazine that it “does not commentâ€. However, immediately afterwards, this reporter learned that BYD’s efforts to commercialize electric vehicles have quietly accelerated. According to informed sources at the company’s top level, the BYD electric car E6, which is expected to have a price of around 300,000 yuan, is being declared as a national catalogue and is expected to be available at the end of this year. At the same time, another F3DM dual-mode electric vehicle is also set to be announced in September this year. Private consumers start selling. “We will be selling in 13 major cities across the country. Our DM models entered the Ministry of Industry and Information Industry's automobile production directory last year. The current automobile investment is mainly in mainland China and has completed the construction of 800,000 capacity.â€
Around this new entry rule, two very different debates have been formed in the industry:
The first opinion was represented by Li Shengmao. He pointed out that according to the new standard, BYD's dual-mode electric vehicles that are already on the market in China are lithium-ion battery vehicles. Although they can be mass-produced, they can only be sold within the approved area and range, which greatly limits the comprehensiveness of their products. Promotion. The Changan Jiexun, Chery A5, FAW Pentium, General Grand Hyatt and other brands of HEV cars are used nickel-metal hydride batteries, can be sold throughout the country to use. Obviously, this kind of decision-making in the country is tilted toward large state-owned auto companies and groups.
The second expert opinion believes that the new access rules show the country’s more pragmatic decision-making attitude.
According to Cui Dongshu, the National Deputy Secretary-General for Passenger Utilization, “From the perspective of the new access rules, it is clear that the national policy is more pragmatic and is not in a hurry to advance. Before everyone was very optimistic about lithium, but in fact, after the technological breakthrough, there was great development. There is a need for breakthroughs, and the current national promotion time has not yet arrived. While the timing for the promotion of nickel-hydrogen batteries has matured, the nickel-hydrogen cost and performance have basically met the hybrid demand, and the hybrid products have become more mature.â€
It is reported that the new standard released this time divides the technical stage of new energy vehicles into three different technical stages: starting stage, development stage and mature stage. Start-up products refer to fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen engine vehicles, and DME vehicles. Products during the development period include hybrid passenger cars powered by lithium-ion power batteries, commercial vehicles, and pure electric vehicles. Mature products refer to products whose production path of technology principles is clear, product technology and production technology are mature, national and industrial standards are basically complete, and can enter the industrialization stage. Lead-acid battery production of hybrid passenger cars, pure electric passenger cars and pure electric commercial vehicles.
Obviously, products that belong to the mature period can be “on the road†faster.
In this regard, Li Shengmao believes that "Lithium-ion powered vehicles can only be sold and used under the approved areas, scope, terms and conditions." The new regulations will greatly affect the development speed of lithium-battery vehicles, and will affect to a certain extent The R&D enthusiasm of auto enterprises for lithium battery vehicles is not conducive to the development of lithium battery auto industry.
Ni-MH battery more easily promoted
After investigation, the reporter found that becoming the new favorite nickel-metal hydride battery has a unique advantage.
According to reports, at present, there are more than 100 private companies that make nickel-metal hydride batteries in Guangdong alone. Sensitive new energy battery manufacturing companies have already begun to lay out blueprints for the future of nickel-metal hydride batteries.
Keliyuan and Hongkong Superba entered into a joint venture agreement in July last year to jointly invest RMB 50 million to establish Hunan Keba Power Battery Co., Ltd. In June this year, Keliyuan plans to acquire Changsha and Han Electronics Co., Ltd. for 120 million yuan in cash. 100% equity of the responsible company. The company plans to invest 48,000 sets of nickel-metal hydride power battery packs for automobiles, and it will substantially expand its production capacity in phase 1. After the completion of the second phase expansion project, the company will have an annual production capacity of 60,000 sets of nickel-metal hydride battery packs for automobiles. .
Nickel-metal hydride batteries are characterized by high safety and are less likely to explode than lithium batteries.
Wang Jun, an expert in research on alternative energy for Guotai Junan Securities, believes that with the introduction of the new access system, the development of nickel-metal hydride battery industry is expected to accelerate, and due to the limited production capacity of related companies, production progress still needs further observation, but such listed companies The increase in the previous period has been relatively large, the valuation is quite high, and the nickel-hydrogen battery company stock will be cautious.
“With the technology of lithium iron phosphate battery still immature, the new standards for accessing new energy vehicles issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have also provided a major opportunity for the development of nickel metal hydride battery vehicles.†said Li Shengmao, a researcher in the new energy auto industry of China Investment Advisors. The reporter said. A few days ago, a research report released by the China Investment Advisor on the 2009-2012 China Lithium Battery Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report showed that 99% of the existing hybrid battery market shares are NiMH batteries, and the commercial representative is Toyota. Prius.
However, from an objective point of view, nickel-metal hydride batteries also have some “rubbing elbowsâ€: the refining technology is not mature enough and the cost is too high.
According to Wang Tianshun, director of the technical service center of the electric vehicle special committee of the Chinese Electrotechnical Society, the reporter introduced that our country began to study the development of electric vehicles 10 years ago, but it has been subject to technology. Consistency is the biggest problem. Low-power battery packs can, but as the main energy source for hybrid and electric vehicles, it is necessary to make high-power battery packs. The greater the power, the greater the difference.
Possibility of common prosperity
Industry experts believe that as a new emerging field, new energy vehicles are becoming a rare opportunity for China's auto industry to catch up with the world's auto industry, so it is necessary to develop a battery line with a comparative advantage in China. In fact, our reporter found during the investigation that nickel-metal hydride batteries and lithium batteries have their own advantages, and it is entirely possible to achieve “common prosperity†in the future.
According to analysts at Essence Securities, lithium-ion power batteries and NiMH batteries are expected to achieve mutual prosperity in the future. NiMH batteries are used in Toyota hybrid vehicles (HEVs), while lithium-ion power batteries are used in plug-in hybrid vehicles. PHEV), the application fields of the two are different. In selecting the technology route, we must pay attention to the advanced nature of the technology and consider the success rate of commercialization.
In fact, the development of China's new energy industry should be able to learn and learn from the experience of Japanese companies.
On July 2, Japanese media reported that Hitachi plans to invest 20 to 30 billion yen (approximately 96 yen and 1 US dollar) to increase the current production capacity of lithium batteries for hybrid vehicles by approximately 70 times in 2015. It has reached the supporting level of 700,000 vehicles. At present, Japan's major auto and battery companies have invested in the construction of vehicle-mounted lithium-ion power battery production lines, which will be put into operation from 2010 to 2011. Lithium-ion batteries have no doubt as a mainstream technology route in the future.
This move is seen as a quiet shift in the direction of Japanese R&D of new energy vehicles. After Ni-MH battery technology achieved a global leader, Japan paid more attention to the development of lithium batteries.
In spite of this, Japan’s Matsushita and Sanyo have stated externally that “lithium batteries still have issues that need to continue to be tackled, such as security, so commercialization will take time.â€
In response, Li Shengmao, a researcher in the China Investment Group's new energy auto industry, believes that the demand for new energy electric vehicles has been rising in recent years, and the prospects for the development of lithium battery vehicles are the most promising. Therefore, all countries and auto makers have adopted lithium battery vehicles as their development. In this regard, Japan will focus on its strategic focus as a new energy vehicle.
Li Shengmao said that in addition to advancing the industrialization of nickel-metal hydride batteries, China’s automobile enterprises and related battery companies should put their eyes on the long term, invest human and material resources in the development of power lithium batteries, and keep up with the technical follow-up of fuel cells. , To prepare for occupying a broader new energy automotive market. After all, new energy vehicles provide China with a rare opportunity to start at the same time with the international automobile industry. Once this opportunity is missed, the consequences will be disastrous.
New Rules Improve Industry Thresholds
In addition to the classification of new energy vehicles, the additional significance of the new access rules is the establishment of industry barriers, which will allow new energy companies to follow regulations in the future.
According to the new access rules, a new energy automobile company shall be a vehicle manufacturer and a manufacturer of refitted commercial vehicles or a refitted commercial vehicle that is announced by the National Development and Reform Commission; a new-build automobile company shall apply for the project in accordance with the relevant national investment management regulations. Approval or filing procedures.
In response, Li Chunbo, an auto analyst at the Research Department of CITIC Securities, said that newly entered enterprises must be approved by the Development and Reform Commission in accordance with the requirements of the “Automotive Industry Development Policy†and obtain a “traditional permit†for a traditional vehicle, so that the total investment is no less than 2 billion yuan. It is more difficult to enter the ranks of new energy vehicles in the future.
Guo Taijun, an alternative energy researcher and researcher, said that from the past, there was no provision for the R&D and production of new energy vehicles, and now the industry's threshold has been set. This has certain progress significance. Judging from the R&D capabilities and quality consistency requirements of car companies, the industry threshold for new energy vehicles has actually increased. “This entry rule puts lead-acid battery products into mature products, and small businesses that produce lead-acid electric vehicles all over the country are now dotted, and some of them have obtained the permission of the local government to allow them to get on the road. But on a scale Look, these companies do not meet the requirements of the threshold."
Yuan Tao, deputy general manager of Chery Automobile, said last week that “For the mature new energy automotive industry, product reliability and consistency are the most important, and to ensure this, we must carry out a lot of testing, vehicle manufacturers Both parts and components must undergo long-term cooperation and testing.†Therefore, the new energy automotive products applied for in the regulations of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology belonged to the start-up or development stage of the technical stage, and the need to submit commitments in the after-sales service, he said that it was very much recognized.
Both SAIC and Changan officials said last week that they were in favor of entry barriers for new energy automakers and products “high in the beginningâ€. The promulgation of new access rules is extremely beneficial to these enterprises that have already built new energy vehicle bases. Since the beginning of this year, Beijing New Energy Automobile Base and Chongqing New Energy Automobile Base have been established and Beijing Jianlong Heavy Industry Group has invested in the “Key Components for New Energy Vehicles†project. In April 2009, it officially settled in Xiqing District, Tianjin. Wuhan Dongfeng Electric Vehicle Industrial Park was also unveiled in June. Then Shanghai Jieneng Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Shanghai Jieneng), which was jointly invested by SAIC and Shanghai Auto, a listed company, was officially unveiled.
“Actually, with the development of electric vehicles, SMEs have mastered a lot of leading technologies.†Wang Tianshun, director of Technical Service Center of Electric Vehicles Committee of China Electrotechnical Society, told reporters, but the new access rules will Keep these smaller companies out of the door.
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