·The impact of the cold current in the automobile market highlights the drawbacks of the inward-oriented industrial structure

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first five months of this year, China's automobile production and sales were 1,024,400 and 1,046,200, an increase of 3.18% and 2.11%, which was 0.94 percentage points and 0.66 percentage points lower than that of January-April. In the same period of last year, it fell 6.19 percentage points and 6.86 percentage points. Among them, the automobile production in May was 1,964,200 units, a decrease of 5.56% from the previous month and a decrease of 0.58% from the same period of last year. The sales volume was 1,903,800 units, down 4.55% from the previous month and down 0.40% year-on-year. The cold current of the automobile market has been scratching the entire automobile industry since entering 2015.
As time went into May, the summer sun did not help the car market any more. According to statistics, in May 2015, China's automobile production and sales were lower than the same period of the previous year, with a production and sales of 1,964,200 and 1,903,800. The results of the car ended. The output decreased by 5.56% from the previous month and decreased by 0.58% year-on-year. The sales volume decreased by 4.55% from the previous month and decreased by 0.40%. Among them: passenger cars produced 1,667,900 units, down 4.40% from the previous month, up 1.66% year-on-year; sales were 1,609,300 units, down 3.57% from the previous month and up 1.20% year-on-year. The production of commercial vehicles was 287,300 units, down 11.78% from the previous month and down 11.93% from the same period of last year. The sales volume was 294,500 units, down 9.57% from the previous month and down 8.29% from the same period last year. Even imported cars that have maintained high-speed growth for many years have experienced a decline of more than 30% in May, with sales of only 88,200 units.
Looking at the auto industry, the cold current of the auto market in the first half of this year has been passed to the level of auto companies through dealers. In the face of the cold current, some enterprises have also started self-rescue measures. In April of this year, several major joint venture car companies represented by Shanghai Volkswagen opened the window of official price cuts, hoping to boost the overall sales growth. However, from the actual effect, the practice of lowering the official guidance price has not played a big role in pulling the car market. With the deepening of the cold current, in June this year, Great Wall Motors also announced the official price cuts, becoming the first Chinese brand enterprise in this cold snap to announce official landing. At the same time, some car companies have also opened measures to adjust production capacity. At the end of May this year, Ford Motor Asia Pacific President (participation, pictures, inquiry) Xiao Dawei (click to view the latest person news) In an interview with the media, in response to the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese auto market, Ford has been this year Production in the factory in China was reduced in the first quarter. At the same time, the sales volume of China's overall auto market in 2015 is expected to be lowered by 500,000 units. Coincidentally, on June 12, Hyundai-Kia Group also issued a statement saying that it will cut production capacity of new cars in South Korea and China. Hyundai Motor's production capacity at the Asan plant in South Korea is reduced by 25%, while Kia cuts the working hours of Chinese factories.
As a result of the downturn in sales and the reduction in production by car companies, the income of employees in the auto industry has also been hit by the cold current in this car market. Of course, the impact of the brand dealers, the sales volume has led to a decline in profits, as the grassroots sales staff to sell the car's commission income naturally also has an impact. Next, with the reduction of production by automobile companies, the income of car enterprises with output as the employee performance calculation index is correspondingly reduced. According to private understanding, in the past few months, the income of employees of major auto companies has declined to varying degrees. As the pillar industry of China's national economy, the automobile industry has gathered millions of related employees, and some cities have even bet on the entire city's GDP in the automobile industry. If the auto market continues to experience cold, most cities will stage a Detroit-style depression. The entire automobile industry will also phase out a large number of automobile production capacity due to the continued coldness of the automobile market. With the elimination of automobile production capacity, the spare parts production capacity will also be eliminated. If this happens, it will cause most car workers to lose their jobs.
A small adjustment of the Chinese auto market can trigger the adjustment of the entire auto industry. This shows that China's auto market is huge, and it also highlights the drawbacks of the inward-looking auto industry structure. The auto industry in the single market is not resistant to risks. Capabilities, not to mention supporting the main body of China's auto industry structure or joint ventures.
Having said that, the author has to once again turn over the crash of the Australian auto industry to talk about it. In February 2014, Toyota Motor issued a statement saying that Toyota will stop its Australian car and engine production activities by the end of 2017 due to factors such as high production costs in Australia, strong Australian dollar and reduced import tax rate. Prior to this, Mitsubishi, GM and Ford among the four traditional Australian automakers announced that they would stop production in Australia, and Toyota’s exit means that there will be no more vehicle manufacturing in Australia by 2017. Enterprises, and the era of once a prosperous automobile production base in Australia has also come to an end. According to Australian government statistics, Australia's automotive industry chain includes about 150 companies, of which more than 45,000 employees are directly employed by cars and auto parts manufacturers, and with the collapse of the Australian auto industry, these employees It will bring heavy employment pressure to the Australian government, and part of the regional economy, which is dominated by the automobile industry, will usher in a recession.
The structure of Australia's former automobile industry and the structure of China's current automobile industry are similar. The only difference is that the Chinese government has not completely liberalized the share ratio of automobile companies. But to be realistic, the 30-year joint-venture model has long allowed this stock to be in the name of possession, at least in terms of market recognition. Once the joint venture is withdrawn, there are very few of these joint ventures that can survive. In fact, such examples have also appeared in the Chinese auto industry, from the earliest Guangzhou Peugeot to the later Nanjing Fiat and FAW Dafa, which did not become a mess after the withdrawal of foreign capital.
The domestic auto industry under the leadership of foreign countries often has the attributes of a single market. This was the case in Australia that year, and so is China now. The foreign-led automobile industry is essentially unable to escape the inward-looking automobile industry model because it does not meet the fundamental interests of the joint venture parties. The drawbacks are also obvious. From this time, the car market has been able to see a rough situation. The sharp decline in the sales volume of the joint venture ultimately affects the best interests of Chinese employees and Chinese companies. Due to the decline in joint venture sales, several major auto companies The overall sales volume has also shrunk dramatically. The most important thing is that in the face of the decline in sales in the Chinese market, these auto companies in China are really powerless in addition to promotion, so that a life-saving straw does not hold fast. On the other hand, multinational corporations are globally rolled out, and the impact of the decline in sales in the Chinese market once they are spread to other markets is really small. At most, it affects profit. 10,000 steps back, the Chinese market is really not working any day, people patted their buttocks and rolled away the dollar, and then re-find an emerging market to continue to make money, just like Australia. Then, what should I do with the mess?
If the export-oriented automobile industry model is concerned, the cold weather in the domestic market will basically not affect the healthy and orderly development of the entire national automobile industry, such as Japan, such as South Korea, such as Germany. In fact, the sales of new cars in these countries are not too large. In 2014, the domestic automobile production in Korea exceeded 4 million. At the same time, the annual output of several major auto companies in Korea exceeded 8 million. Car. This is the advantage of the export-oriented automobile industry. The coldness of any market will not affect the development of the domestic automobile industry.
It is not difficult to find out from this cold in the auto market that the boom in China's auto industry in recent years is only superficial, and it does not have strong impact resistance and sustainable development. Taking precautions, I only hope that China's auto industry can clarify the future development direction from the industrial impact brought by this cold market, and let the Australian tragedy be staged in China.

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