General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the conference of academicians of the two academies that with the further development of artificial intelligence technology, digital manufacturing technology and mobile internet, the robot revolution is expected to become an entry point and important growth point for a new round of scientific and technological revolution, which will affect the global manufacturing industry. pattern. The International Federation of Robotics predicts that by 2025, the application of advanced robots in the fields of manufacturing, medical care, and service industries can generate output value of $4 trillion to $4.5 trillion.
One, the robot came
At the opening ceremony of the World Cup in Brazil on June 13, 2014, the world’s 1 billion audience saw a magical scene. A paralyzed Brazilian youth kicked off the opening game for the World Cup. His ability to move comes from an exoskeleton robot system developed by multinational scientists. The system can stand and walk on the basis of brain signals.
In 2007, Bill Gates wrote in "Scientific American" magazine, predicting that in the near future the robot will enter millions of households, repeat the path of the rise of personal computers since the 1970s, and once again completely change the way of human life. . Today, people have clearly seen that the wave of "robot revolution" is sweeping across many fields.
Second, countries compete to develop the robot industry
The robot is praised as "the pearl of the top of the manufacturing crown." Its level of R&D, manufacturing, and application is an important indicator of the degree of development of the high-end manufacturing industry. The robotics industry is therefore highly concerned by the countries of the world. In recent years, with the accelerating pace of innovation and integration between artificial intelligence technology, digital manufacturing technology and mobile Internet, developed countries have made strategic deployments to seize the commanding heights of the robot industry.
In 2009, the United States established a framework for revitalizing manufacturing. In the "Advanced Manufacturing Partner Program", it explicitly requested that the development of robots be used to revitalize the U.S. manufacturing industry and rely on the advantages of information network technology to develop a new generation of intelligent robots. Japan has formulated a long-term strategy for the development of robotics as one of the seven key supporting industries. In 2013, Japan established a robot special zone and invested 1 billion yen to promote the use of nursing robots and disaster relief robots. South Korea has formulated the "Basic Plan for Intelligent Robots", and in 2011 it proposed the "Service Robot Development Strategy". In October 2012, it released "The future strategic vision for robots 2022," focusing on expanding the Korean robotics industry and supporting the entry of domestic robotics companies. overseas market. The European Union put forward the EU-Robot research and application roadmap from 2002 to 2022 as a strategic guide for the development of EU robots. At the same time, it also launched the “Spark†project, the world’s largest civilian robot R&D program, which was completed by the European Commission and the European Robot Association. The German government proposed the “Industry 4.0†strategy in the “High-tech Strategy 2020†and officially launched at the Hannover Messe 2013, including smart factories, smart production, and smart logistics. The world's major robot manufacturers and Internet companies have also stepped up their efforts to seize the commanding heights of the market. Google acquired 8 robotics companies in 2013 and acquired companies related to artificial intelligence in 2014.
Third, the rapid development of China's robotics industry China began to develop robots in the 1970s, after 40 years of development, the main robotic products have achieved production, and industrial robot manufacturing companies have begun to take shape. According to statistics from the China Robotics Industry Federation, in 2014, the sales volume of industrial robots in China reached 56,000 units. In 2013, it exceeded Japan as the world’s largest robot producer. Judging from the type of application, in 2013, the handling robots became the most popular robots in China, followed by welding robots and equipped robots. According to a report issued by the International Federation of Robotics, the demand for robots in China will continue to grow rapidly for a long time to come, with an annual growth of more than 25%. By 2017, the Chinese robot market will reach 100,000 units, and China’s industrial robots There will be more than 400,000 units. In 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released “Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Industrial Robot Industry†and proposed that by 2020, a complete industrial robot industry system must be formed, the market share of high-end products should be increased to more than 45%, and the robot density (per 10,000 employees). The number of robots used has increased from less than 30 to more than 100.
Although China's robotic industry has developed rapidly, there is still a certain gap compared with developed countries. The data shows that China's current robot density is less than 30, and there is still a gap from the global average of 62. The self-owned branded products are still far from meeting the requirements of the development of the national economy in various fields. In 2013, China’s own-brand industrial robots were dominated by medium- and low-end coordinate robots and plane multi-joint robots. The proportion of high-end six-axis robots was less than 6% in the world, and multi-joint robots of foreign brands accounted for sales of robots in China. The proportion reached 62%.
Fourth, the robot industry affects the global manufacturing pattern
Since the birth of the first industrial robot in the world, the robotics industry has developed rapidly with amazing vitality and has directly promoted profound changes in the traditional manufacturing industry. Today, this kind of reform is spreading and infiltrating the manufacturing industry in the new economic era.
"The ability of robots to balance the world's manufacturing economy" was a prediction made by the London-based consulting firm MetraMartech in its report submitted to the International Robot Consortium back in 2011. The report believes that the application of robots has rebalanced the world's manufacturing economy, enabling traditional labor-power countries to increase their competitiveness in the world market. Their competitiveness has led to an increase in the sales of industrial products, further increasing the employment opportunities in the manufacturing industry, and accelerating Promote the new round of scientific and technological revolution.
Opportunities and challenges brought by the robot industry are mainly reflected in: In the short term, the extension of the robot function will inevitably lead to a relative decrease in the demand for people in a single production unit of the manufacturing industry, resulting in a batch of production workers laid off. In the agricultural technological revolution of the 20th century, the number of employed people in the United States fell from 40% of the total population to 2%. In the heyday of manufacturing, about one-third of Americans were engaged in manufacturing, but now it is less than 10%. At the same time, the large-scale emergence of robots will also generate a large number of new positions, including the development, manipulation, and maintenance of robots. The International Federation of Robotics recently released a research report entitled “Actively affecting the employment of industrial robots,†saying that industrial robots will create more than 2 million jobs in the next eight years.
The extensive use of robots poses a challenge to the management model of manufacturing companies, which can reduce the number of employees and simplify the management process. However, it also imposes higher requirements on enterprise informationization. Product demonstrations and product production data must be completed by computers.
The high-end manufacturing industry around the robotics industry may become a new area of ​​competition between developed countries such as the United States and Europe and emerging economies such as China. In 2010, China's manufacturing output accounted for 19.8% of the world's total output, surpassing the United States as the world's largest manufacturing country. In general, however, under the specific background of the rise of a new round of scientific and technological revolutions in the world and increasing pressures on domestic resources and the environment, the contradictions of unsustainable traditional industrial models in China have become increasingly prominent, and the trend of major developed countries trying to regain their advantages in manufacturing has become obvious. The Obama administration clearly proposed that the U.S. economy should have a long-term foundation through the development of high-end manufacturing industries such as the robot industry. In 2013, the European Union clearly stated that Europe must carry out "reindustrialization" to revitalize the European economy and increase the proportion of the industry's share of the EU's GDP from 15.6% to 20% in 2020. The robot industry is the focus of development.
In the medium to long term, whether or not a large number of advanced technical talents capable of adapting to the robot era will be cultivated will become an important condition for restricting the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry.
In order to maintain its competitiveness in the robot era, “Made in China†must be guided by the needs of the domestic market, actively deploy intelligent manufacturing industries such as the robot industry, establish domestic brands of the robot industry as soon as possible, and build the entire industrial chain of robots as “13. V. Emphasis on industrial development, strengthening basic research, mastering core technologies, promoting upstream and downstream integration of the industrial chain of robots, and adhering to the combination of attracting investment, introducing intelligence, introducing technology, and integrating production, education, and research, and gradually expanding from the integration to the middle and upper reaches. Enhance the matching and coordination of upstream and downstream industries; combine robots with big data, cloud computing, internet of things, and mobile internet to create new advantages for “Made in Chinaâ€.
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