Industrial Robot Market Development Analysis

With the development of science and technology and economy, the advantages of cheap labor in China have gradually disappeared, and the robot industry as an emerging field has rapidly emerged. In 2012, the number of robots purchased in China reached 23,000 units, and China became the world's second-largest robot market after Japan, ahead of the United States and Germany.

China has a huge market, but domestic industrial robot companies are inherently inadequate in terms of technological development, and their competitiveness in the international market is somewhat weak. Especially in the past 10 years, the price of imported robots has been drastically reduced, and ordinary industrial robots manufactured by China have simply been unable to compete with them on prices, which has had a profound impact on the development of industrial robots in China.

In order to reshape the competitive advantages of China's manufacturing industry and open the door for automated roads, in 2012, the State issued the “12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Intelligent Manufacturing Technology”, which specifically addresses the “industrial robots”: to overcome the industrial robot body, The common technologies of precision reducers, servo drives, motors and controllers and other core components independently develop industrial robot engineering products to achieve technological breakthroughs and industrialization of industrial robots and their core components.

With the continuous deepening of industrial transformation and upgrading and demographic dividends weakening, industrial robots have become more and more widely used. The International Robot Federation survey found that from 2008 to 2011, China’s robot adoption rate (ie, the ratio of robots per 10,000 employees) increased by 210%. In 2012, the average growth rate of robotic enterprises in Shenzhen exceeded 30%, and the growth rate of individual companies even reached 200%. In the past two years, the state has issued relevant policies to support the development of the robot industry. Many provinces have established a robotics industry alliance. According to the current development trend, it is generally predicted by the international community that in 2014 China will become the world’s largest market demand for industrial robots.

However, it is worth noting that China has not really formed its own brand and has a certain size of industrial robot industry. Compared with major developed countries, China's robotics industry has slow development, weak core technology, and low market share and added value. Currently, foreign-branded industrial robots account for more than 90% of China's domestic market share. Luo Baihui, chief researcher at Jinmo Industrial Control Network, said that the key components of the joints of the reducer, a robot, are generally relied on by Chinese companies. This has left us at least a decade or more apart from the advanced level in foreign countries. The robot can first break through the low-end products to promote large-scale application, accumulate experience, and then send strength to the high-end market. Industrial robots caused a manufacturing revolution In recent years, rising labor costs have forced many companies in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta to relocate. In order to maintain profits, they had to move their manufacturing links to lower-central China's central and western regions and Southeast Asia. The country has even moved to African countries where the cost of labor is low enough to not be lower. The once "world factory" is facing a difficult transition. However, Imagine that the headquarter economy and branding process will be available overnight for most ordinary manufacturing companies.

At the same time, another revolution in the manufacturing industry is quietly taking place in the world. The same migration theme is the reverse of the migration. An American expert put forward this year: "When we combine artificial intelligence, robotics, and digital manufacturing technologies, a manufacturing revolution will take place. It will enable American entrepreneurs to start factories and build a variety of This way, how can China compete with us? The United States is destined to regain leadership in the manufacturing industry, and it will soon be China’s concern to worry about it.” This American scholar puts forward three major declarations of war on Chinese manufacturing. The combination of technology and manufacturing patterns can be called manufacturing intelligence, that is, intelligent manufacturing.

Industrial robots are modern intelligent devices integrating mechanical, electronic, control, computer, sensors, artificial intelligence and other multi-disciplinary advanced technologies. They will soon become high-tech and high-efficiency equipment that cannot be replaced by the manufacturing industry. For more than a decade, the demand for global industrial robots has expanded rapidly.

According to the statistics of the International Robot Federation (IFR), from 2002 to 2012, the annual growth rate of newly installed industrial robots was about 9%. Among them, there was a surge in demand in 2010 and 2011. In 2012, the global industrial robot production and sales reached 160,000 units.

It is estimated that by 2025, 5% to 15% of manufacturing workers will be replaced by industrial robots. The average annual growth rate of global installed capacity is 25% to 30%, which is higher than the growth rate of the past 20 years but lower than 2011. Year and 2012 growth rates.

The data shows that the demand for industrial robots in our country has grown rapidly: from 1999 to 2008, the installed capacity has grown at an annual rate of more than 20%. In 2010, China’s inventory was 52,290 units, and in 2011, it was 74,317 units, achieving an annual growth of 42%. . At present, the actual holding capacity should have exceeded 100,000 units. From 2008 to 2012, the average annual installed capacity of industrial robots in China is about 15,000 units. Even in the global economic recession in 2009, sales volume has grown in contrarian conditions. In 2010, the installed capacity was 14,978 units, in 2011, 22,027 units and in 2012, 24,800 units.

The world’s largest demand for industrial robots is in the automotive industry, accounting for 27.27%; the electronics manufacturing industry accounts for 22.82%, which is of great relevance to technological breakthroughs in consumer electronics in recent years; followed by the rubber and plastics industry. Metal products accounted for 8.71% and 3.62%, respectively.

According to IFR's forecast, by 2014, China will become the world's largest demanding country for industrial robots, with a demand of 32,000 units, accounting for 17% of global sales. At present, most domestic companies are mostly concerned about how to make the company bigger. They are at the scale of several thousand people and tens of thousands of people. Foreign companies are more pursuing technology leadership and making their products indispensable in the manufacture of other products. Chinese manufacturing companies mainly rely on price and quantity to win and lack core technologies. With the increase in labor, raw materials and other costs, the profits of manufacturing companies will become thinner and thinner. Looking at the world, the third industrial revolution centered on “digital intelligent manufacturing” is coming. The protagonist of this revolution is the large-scale popularization and application of artificial intelligence represented by industrial robots.

Domestic robots get policy support Although China's industrial robot market is about to become the world's first, this market is dominated by foreign brands. According to statistics, in 2012 China's industrial robots market accounted for the top 10 foreign-owned brands, while foreign giants held over 80% of the market share. The data shows that at present foreign robot brands occupy 90% of the domestic market, while domestic production of industrial robots only account for less than 10% of the market share. At present, in addition to more and more robot R&D and production companies emerging, some machine tool companies have also started to look at the robot industry during the process of transformation and upgrading, and have begun to take practical actions. Regardless of when these investments can achieve results, but from the perspective of the reaction of the capital market, the continuous rise and fall of stock prices brought about by the disclosure of relevant investment information also reflects to some extent the future market of intelligent manufacturing industry represented by industrial robots. The outlook is promising.

In the face of bright prospects and the weak foundation for the initial stage of industrialization, China’s industrial robot industry needs to establish “top-level design” such as industrial policies, industry development plans, and common technology platforms to speed up the development of independent brands. Among these, it is particularly important to formulate special plans for industrial robots and increase technological research and development efforts.

According to the China Machine Tool Network (Machine35.com), as the concept of domestic robots has been rising in recent years, relevant support policies for the robot industry continue to follow. In 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the smart manufacturing equipment industry plan. In 2012, the Ministry of Science and Technology released a special plan for the development of service robotics technology during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and proposed to overcome common technologies such as industrial robot bodies, precision reducers, servo drives, and motor and controller core components, and independently develop industrial robots engineering products. , to achieve the technical breakthroughs and industrialization of the core components of industrial robots.

In July 2013, Wang Weiming, Deputy Director of the Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, disclosed that "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Industrial Robot Industry" has been reported to the ministries and commissions of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology. It may be officially released soon, and the next step is to increase the number of robots. Industry support.

The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is a key turning point in the development of China's industrial robot industry, and market demand will also show blow-out development. Zhang Xianmin, dean of the School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering at South China University of Technology, pointed out that the industry scale of industrial robots in 2015 is expected to exceed one trillion yuan, and the industry outlook for smart manufacturing and intelligent equipment is optimistic. Taking Shenzhen as an example, the data shows that the product scale of robotic-related information, household appliances, communications, and other equipment manufacturing industries has reached more than 300 billion yuan, ranking the top in the country. In 2012, the average growth rate of robotic enterprises in Shenzhen exceeded 30%, and the growth rate of individual companies even reached 200%.

On April 21, 2013, the “China Robot Industry Alliance” led by the China Machinery Industry Federation was unveiled at the Beijing Science and Technology Hall. The alliance aims to promote the development of China's industrial robot industry, guide the progress of domestic enterprises, and promote the industry. Local robot industry alliances have been established one after another, and production, learning and research have made concerted efforts to overcome the advanced technologies of robot manufacturing.

Financial capital, venture capital and private capital should be encouraged to invest in industrial robot applications and industries. For industrial robot projects with advanced technology, obvious advantages, and strong driving and supporting role, priority should be given to credit support. Actively support qualified industrial robot companies to directly finance capital markets at home and abroad.

At the same time, with the reliability of domestic industrial robots reaching a certain level, the first set of subsidies will be introduced. Allowing the establishment of industrial robot leasing companies to promote the use of industrial robots by less-funded small-scale enterprises, industrial robot leasing may be a model for promoting the rapid development of the industrial robot industry.

Significant changes in employment structure With regard to the cost of labor for robots, a head of the marketing department of Guangzhou CNC stated that the current cost of a simple 2-axis, 4-axis robot has dropped to below 100,000 yuan/set, and domestic 6-axis robots have The price is as low as 130,000 yuan/set. Now, the annual salary cost of a domestic manufacturing worker reaches 450,000 yuan. According to the 12th Five-Year Plan, if the goal of achieving an average annual growth rate of minimum wages of 13% or more and employee wages increasing by 15%, this will be a huge expenditure.

Robots can work 24 hours a day. Each robot can replace at least 3 workers. Then the cost can be recovered in less than 1 year. Even with related staff training and equipment maintenance costs, all investments can be recovered in 18 months. The useful life of robots is usually 10 years, and robots that are eliminated due to the upgrading of production lines are usually able to serve for more than 3 years.

If a six-axis robot can replace four or five workers, three shifts are 12 to 15 employees, and the annual savings in worker costs are 480,000 to 600,000 yuan. The actual time needed to recover the investment is to purchase a 2- and 4-axis robot. No difference, the difference is only the initial investment required for equipment.

In addition to the labor cost advantage, the use of robots can also significantly reduce the production area. Originally needed a workshop that could accommodate 3,000 people, now only needs a factory that can accommodate 1,000 people. Through the cooperation of workers and robots, production capacity can even increase several times.