“Photovoltaic is gradually approaching parity with the Internet,†said Wang Bohua, secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, at a seminar on the 2017 review of the photovoltaic industry and the outlook for 2018.
2017 China Solar Pride Global
According to the data of the Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of 2017, the production cost of polysilicon for leading Chinese companies has dropped to 60,000 yuan/ton, the production cost of modules has dropped below 2 yuan/watt, and the investment cost for photovoltaic power generation systems has dropped to 5 yuan/watt. Around, the cost of electricity is reduced to 0.5-0.7 yuan/kWh.
With the cost reduction, the photovoltaic product's power generation efficiency has increased significantly. Single crystal industrial conversion efficiency has increased from 20% last year to 21.3%, and polycrystalline silicon has also increased from 18.5% to over 19%. Among them, the highest conversion efficiency of PERC single crystal continues to achieve a breakthrough, with crystallographic and Longji reaching 23.45% and 22.7%, respectively. It is expected that the mass production efficiency of PERC single crystals is expected to reach 24.2% in the future.
Technological progress has won a strong market competitiveness for China's photovoltaic companies. In 2017, large-scale PV companies such as SolarWorld, Suniva, and Sunpower in Europe and the United States faced a reduction in production or even bankruptcy. In the first nine months of 2017, Japan closed down a total of 68 photovoltaic companies. On the contrary, the export value of China's photovoltaic products has maintained steady growth. Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd., Jinko Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., JA Solar Energy Co., Ltd. and other major companies generally expanded their production. Some small and medium-sized enterprises also accelerated the IPO process.
Photovoltaic generation level era is technically barrier-free
Policy support fosters a huge industry
Technology leadership is not a day's work. China's photovoltaic products can go global and cannot be separated from the vigorous support of national policies in recent years.
Between 2004 and 2010, Europe and the United States were the major markets for China's photovoltaic products, which accounted for 70% of total exports. However, between 2011 and 2012, the United States and the European Union successively launched anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations on China's photovoltaic products, followed by heavy taxes. This has led to a sharp contraction in China's exports of photovoltaic products. The export value has plummeted from US$25.87 billion in 2011 to US$12.29 billion in 2013. Under this background, in 2013, China officially implemented the benchmark on-grid tariff policy for substations of photovoltaic power plants, in which the centralized PV power plants were divided into three categories, with electricity price standards of 0.9 yuan, 0.95 yuan, and 1 yuan per kilowatt hour respectively implemented. The subsidy of 0.42 yuan per kilowatt-hour is applied to distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, striving to achieve the purpose of supporting domestic photovoltaic companies by leveling the gap in cost between photovoltaic and coal electricity, and opening up its own photovoltaic power generation market.
Policy support has made the domestic photovoltaic market usher in an explosive growth. The proportion of photovoltaic power generation in China's power structure has also been further improved. According to figures disclosed by the National Energy Administration, the country’s total photovoltaic power generation in 2017 was 118.2 billion kWh, an increase of 78.6% year-on-year, accounting for an increase from 1.1% in 2016 to 1.8%.
As the technology of the industry continues to mature, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has declined rapidly in recent years. The data released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association shows that from 2007 to 2017, the price of photovoltaic modules and inverters dropped by about 90% in 10 years. At the same time, its economic value has increased rapidly. In 2015, the National Energy Administration commissioned Tsinghua University to conduct research. The results show that in 2024, photovoltaic power generation in the three types of regions can achieve parity access. At present, due to the declining costs and the increase in economic value, “the realization of photovoltaic level pricing in 2020†has become a consensus in the industry.
At the same time, photovoltaic power generation support policies are gradually withdrawing, mainly reflected in the continuous reduction of PV on-grid tariffs and power generation subsidies. According to the targets set by the National Energy Administration, China plans to achieve basic access to the Internet in 2020. By then, photovoltaics will have the same price as coal-fired power, and distributed power stations will no longer enjoy state subsidies. China's photovoltaic industry will also enter the era of consumers.
"Leaders" boost the cost of photovoltaic power generation
In the decline of the cost of photovoltaic power generation and the continuous rise of industry technology, the "photovoltaic leader" program contributed.
Liu Yong, senior vice president of Jiangsu Suzhou Zhonglai Photovoltaic New Material Co., Ltd., said that the first phase leader project has brought the cost of solar power in China to about 7 cents. The second leading project has brought the cost of electricity to the next level. Below 6 cents, the minimum is 5 hairs. He believes that the cost of electricity for the third phase of the solar leader will definitely be below 4 cents.
The "photovoltaic front runner" plan is a special photovoltaic support plan led by the National Energy Administration. It aims to promote the application of photovoltaic technology products and industrial upgrading through the construction of advanced technology photovoltaic power generation demonstration bases and demonstration projects of new technology applications. Since 2015, the third batch has now been implemented.
The "photovoltaic front runners" invite tenders through market competition. Their considerations include investment, performance, electricity prices, and technology, and the standards are very high. Liu Yong cited the tendering criteria for the third batch of photovoltaic front runners as an example. “For PV companies to bid, their cost of electricity should be at least 10% lower than the local benchmark price. But this is only a minimum requirement. To reach full marks, we must reduce it. The cost of such a high standard of competition is to select the photovoltaic power plant products with the most technological advantages and market competitiveness in the industry. Because the leader project has a very important demonstration significance for the application of advanced technology in the industry, it has attracted companies in the industry to compete for bids. The "leader" has thus become an important arena and exhibition stage.
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