Since June, Mr. Li, a distributor of China National Heavy Duty Trucks Sichuan, has had time to go out for a drink with friends and to “agritainment.†From January to May, Sinotruk’s hot sales in Sichuan kept him busy. At the end of May, the heavy-duty truck market "had a slow turn, and finally he was able to take a break." It was also in these few days that he could calm down and discuss with friends his recent major events in the heavy truck market in Sichuan.
Shanxi Tongda's high-profile deployment of Sichuan and China's heavy-duty trucks in the Kawauchi special vehicle market is the focus of their attention.
Not optimistic about new arrivals
On June 18th, the Universiade Automotive Industrial Park project invested by Shanxi Tongda Group officially settled in the Chengdu Economic and Technological Development Zone. It plans to invest 2.1 billion yuan in five years to form an annual output of 100,000 light, medium and heavy trucks. Capacity, the workshop also circulated news that the plant will produce more than 30 tons of luxury heavy trucks.
It is understood that access to Chengdu, Tongda Group, is to take the form of a wholly-owned merger and reorganization of Sichuan Yinhe Automobile Group Co., Ltd., in the land, plant, announcements eat "ready-made rice. An industry insider told the "Commercial Automotive News" reporter: "In fact, Tongda Group has long wanted to build heavy trucks, but it has always been suffering from no qualifications.
In addition to SAIC Iveco Hongyan, which is located in the neighboring Chongqing Municipality, although Sichuan has some companies with heavy truck production qualifications, it has not been in the heavy vehicle industry. For those who have long been eager to enter the heavy truck industry, Mr. Li and his friends are not optimistic.
“The predecessor of Sichuan Yinhe Automobile was actually the Sichuan Highway Machinery Factory and Sichuan Guangcheng Vehicle Manufacturing Co., Ltd. These two companies were acquired by Guangxi Yinhe Group Co., Ltd. in 2004, but the Galaxy Group did not have any The breakthrough is likely to be a capital operation, and this time the Tongda Group’s acquisition of Sichuan Yinhe is still unknown for the same purpose, local dealers told reporters.
Mr. Chen, a distributor of SAIC Iveco Hongyan, also believes in the sincerity of Tongda Group to build heavy trucks: “I heard that Tongda Group would introduce Mantech’s technology and there should be some technical highlights that may attract some users. But he also believes: “Sichuan Heavy truck users in the region are more sensitive to prices. It is difficult to tell whether such high-end heavy trucks can get approval from the Sichuan market. At the same time, you can save money to build a factory, but the in-depth understanding of the market can not be completed overnight.
“At present, heavy-duty truck sales in Sichuan are fierce, and it is too late for Tongda Group to enter the market, and there is no mature marketing network in Sichuan, and the threat to us will not be too great.†Mr. Li said. He also specifically mentioned that the removal had already passed the competition. The formation of the market structure is difficult to shake, Sichuan market is about to enter the off-season is he is not optimistic about the Tongda Group heavy truck project one of the factors.
The market turned pale
It is reported that Tongda Group's heavy truck products will be listed and sold in August. In stark contrast to the Tongda Group's in full swing in production and construction, the heavy truck market in Sichuan has shown a downward trend.
“This year's new features of the Sichuan market are particularly light and strong, and the off-season is particularly noticeable. I guess it was stimulated by the favorable policy of rebuilding investment after the disaster. In the past few months, users have followed the trend and bought the car, overdrawing market demand. Now entering the off-season, There are fewer jobs, and users do not dare to buy more cars, so the off-season is particularly sudden. Mr. Li told reporters.
Not only is heavy truck, SAIC Iveco Hongyan's sales also fell in late May. Mr. Chen said: “June and August are the traditional off-season for the heavy truck market in Sichuan. These months are the rainy season. The construction vehicles on the construction site are liable to slip, the operation is difficult, the attendance of vehicles is low, and users find it difficult to find jobs. There are still many mines. In the mountainous areas, the relevant departments directly seal mines and do not carry out production. Therefore, the demand for vehicles in the market is reduced, and even if there is a policy pull, it will not be much effective.
“Actually, the stimulating effect of the policy has already been reflected in the market. This year, the off-season has come half a month early. I estimate that it will also end two months before the end of the month. The Tongda Group’s products may go offline in August and may be able to catch up. It's a good time, but I'm not sure if my product will go offline on time, and even if the product goes offline, how can it be sold or sold? There is still a lot of things to solve, Li said.
Special car base is concerned
Contrary to the fact that everyone is not optimistic about Tongda Group, China National Heavy Duty Truck's special-purpose vehicle base has attracted many heated discussions.
On May 13, China National Heavy Duty Truck started construction of a special vehicle production base in Mianyang. For this news, except for Mr. Li and several other Chinese heavy-duty dealers in Sichuan, other dealers secretly complained.
When the market was booming in March and April, a number of Sichuan distributors told reporters: "Orders cannot be received, and then the vehicles will not be refitted. The poor modulating ability or the culprit of dealers losing orders during the busy season. “The delivery period was even more than 40 days. At this time, the user rushed to the car and changed his brand without a car. For this reason, we did not lose orders. Although China National Heavy Duty Truck built a dedicated vehicle base in Sichuan because of its counterpart assistance, but after completion, China National Heavy Duty Truck's ability to modify the local will certainly have a larger increase, which seizes our weakness, it is expected that this project will be put into production. The impact on us is greater. A dealer of SAIC Iveco Hongyan told reporters.
"In addition to the advantage of delivery time, because it is a reconstruction project, the Mianyang municipal government pays more attention to it. CNHTC should also get some preferential policies in terms of land and capital. At that time, I believe that the special vehicle for heavy-duty trucks may have more advantages in terms of cost. Dongfeng dealer Mr. Liu said.
More dealers broke the news to reporters: "Although I claim to start construction, but as far as I know, the project started last year, and there is no major problem in the end of this year. The China National Heavy Duty Truck Special Vehicle Base is in the Kawauchi dump truck market. The impact may appear during the year, and the market will get hotter and the impact will be greater.
Tan Xiuqing, an expert from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, also gave a positive assessment: “In areas where there is a large market for sales potential, companies can consider investing in factories and factories, including setting up spare parts warehouses, refitting plants, etc. to seize the local market. This is not only beneficial to the local market. , It can also drive sales in the surrounding area.
An industry insider pointed out: “In the Sichuan market, the influence of Sinotruk and Shanxi Tongda is not the same, and the expansion of heavy-duty trucks is also in line with current market demand. This is the biggest difference between the two.
Post-disaster aid construction is good, and the qualifications of the plan are worth mentioning. Both Sinotruk and Shanxi Tongda have chosen to build factories in Sichuan. Under the combined effect of the post-disaster reconstruction and the policies for the development of the western region, it is no exaggeration to regard the heavy truck market in Sichuan as a policy market in the coming years. There is nothing wrong with the development of corporate leveraging policies. However, the power of policy is not easy to borrow.
The purpose of the policy is to regulate when the supply and demand curve fluctuates greatly. Under normal circumstances, the policy market often means that the supply and demand are not balanced, and policies need to be introduced to regulate and control. In the policy market, investing in and building factories has positive effects on companies’ ability to seize demand in the short term, increase regional market share, and optimize resource allocation.
But this must be based on a rational analysis of market demand and market trends. Due to the continuous favorable policies, the demand for heavy truck market in Sichuan will be obvious in the next few years, but the policy is not a panacea. In the long run, policies only play a role within a certain period of time and within the region. Hot selling means that advances in market demand are overdrawn, and then there is likely to be a bleak market. One day, the stimulating effect of policies on the market will diminish, and demand is the inexhaustible motive force for the development of the company.
China National Heavy Duty Truck set up a special vehicle base in Sichuan, which was recognized by dealers and experts because it spotted Sichuan's demand for special vehicles and seized the weakness of other companies' weak ability to retrofit during the peak season. Shanxi Tongda Group, which manufactures light, medium and heavy trucks, has no brand appeal or talented personnel reserves, and also faces strong opponents such as Chengdu Trump, Sichuan Nanjun, etc. The outlook is worrisome.
In regions where policy stimuli are excessively rich, what products are produced and how companies are positioned are susceptible to policies. If policies blind the original needs of the market, not only may the positioning of the enterprise not be in line with the advantages of the enterprise, but it is also very likely that the product will be separated from the original. Market demand. When the product goes offline, who can guarantee the influence of the policy?
Policy incentives may also lead to more intense competition and irrational buying. Users' follow-up purchases also make the supply and demand curve partially off track. Without long-term attention and in-depth understanding of the regional market, the company's production rhythm will easily deviate from actual demand, and costs and management pressures in all aspects of procurement, production, sales, and repayment will increase.