Yao Wei: Before today’s speech, I’ll talk about a recent popular joke: When Queen Elizabeth wants to hear Prime Minister Cameron’s report on Xi Jinping’s visit, Cameron sees the Queen and says, “The Galeries Lafayettes have given us The railway has gone." This is a joke, but this joke also reflects that a hundred years ago, the powers exported products and technology to China; a hundred years later, China will export its products to developed countries and export its products.
Fang Dewang Editor-in-Chief Yao Wei
indeed so. We have discovered that the development and popularity of China's high-speed rail are really at the forefront of Europe and the United States. China is exporting some technologies and products to Europe and the United States. In addition to high-speed rail, we have also found that Chinese buses have become more competitive. There are also a lot of exports before the Chinese bus, but there are not many exporters in developed countries. In the future, many European and American developed countries will appear on the export map of Chinese buses.
I just returned from Europe, and France, Belgium and the United Kingdom have made a big turn and felt very deep. Coupled with my previous visits to the United States, I believe that China's passenger cars have great prospects in the future European and American markets. I intend to use 15 minutes to describe a broad prospect and to ask some questions.
Nowadays, Chinese passenger cars have gradually been recognized and understood by Europe. After we went to Europe this time, we also discovered that the image of Chinese passenger cars has been different. In many parts of Europe, both the Champs-Elysees and London, where President Xi has just gone, can see the shadow of Chinese buses.
Chinese buses also traveled to Europe 5 or 6 years ago. However, they were unsuccessful. Many Europeans have a poor impression of Chinese buses and their services are not good. In the past, through a large number of visits, the interviewed European bus operators and distributors agreed that the quality of Chinese passenger cars is now very different from that of many passenger cars in Europe. Many bus operators in Europe are willing to use Chinese buses. As another example, the French Institute of Public Transport announced that Yutong will become their mainstream supplier in the next decade.
At present, many European operators still have relatively rare cars for China. First of all, the quality of Chinese cars is close to that of Europe and the United States. The other is the European passenger car that urgently needs new energy. Europe has made very little of it.
According to the Copenhagen climate agreement, the European Union has set specific requirements for member states to reduce their carbon emissions. As a result, the EU passed relevant laws and regulations in 2015. Before 2025, 80% of existing buses need to be replaced with clean energy buses, while pure electric buses are required. It will become one of the future trends.
Although we do not think that pure electricity is the only way out in the future, it has become an important technical direction for passenger cars. Just now talked about European demand, the European passenger car market is actually urgently needed for new energy buses. At the FNTV conference, we heard a word that European operators want to use new energy vehicles. In stark contrast to the huge demand, the major local car companies in Europe have made slow progress in new energy. This is also very easy to understand. They are large-scale bus companies that have been developing for hundreds of years. They have great advantages in the traditional passenger cars. They do not want to see new energy buses become the future direction. They are also investing in these areas. less.
At this BAAV show, we can see that some new energy buses in Europe are basically a few refitting factories. As big European companies, their pure electric vehicles and even hybrid cars are very few. Moreover, they are developing very slowly and it takes at least five years to develop a new car. Therefore, the contrast with the future of European buses is that they have no new energy bus supply capacity.
Moreover, the European government does not invest so much in China and new energy vehicles like China. From 2009 onwards, China has gone through a period of six years, after a round of subsidies to stimulate policies, new energy buses have also been updated generation after generation. In the first nine months of this year, the sales of pure electric passenger cars in China reached 33,743, an increase of 623% over the same period of last year, which means that the manufacturing and operation of China's new energy passenger cars have taken the lead in the world. While there is basically no such top-level design in foreign countries, the government does not have as much funds to support enterprises in the development and operation of new energy vehicles.
At present, China's new energy bus manufacturing operations are at the forefront of the world. For example, Yutong and BYD have far surpassed European big-name bus companies in terms of new energy buses.
In addition, China's new energy bus operation experience is very rich, many companies have a very clear understanding and understanding of the purely electric bus technology line. China has a vast territory. The situation in each city is different. China now has more than 60 cities that have pure electric and even large-scale operations. Therefore, the actual operating experience that Chinese bus companies already have can be adapted to different working conditions. This point is also very important for European operators. We have practical experience, not just a prototype. Many of the city's pure electric buses already have initial commercial operating value, and of course I am here.
The Chinese bus manufacturers are different from Europe. Many commercial vehicle companies in Europe are not mainly bus builders, but mainly truck builders. Many of China's bus companies are mainly bus makers, such as one-pass three dragons, Zhongtong and so on. Therefore, Chinese companies attach more importance to passenger car operators than European companies. This also makes European customers satisfied.
My conclusion now is that New Energy Bus is our biggest opportunity to enter Europe. We now have advantages. We are not only manufacturing advantages in terms of new energy buses, but Europe has huge demand. For example, Paris will replace all buses in Paris with new energy buses in the next ten years. The entire European Union has just mentioned that 80% of buses must be replaced with new energy. Europe has huge demand, but with their government's subsidy capacity, including their passenger car manufacturers' development level for new energy buses, their supply cannot meet demand, which is the biggest opportunity for Chinese buses.
Chinese passenger cars have a strong advantage in new energy sources in the European market, including the gradual entry into the European market. In fact, there is a theoretical basis for economics.
According to Michael Porter's theory of competitive advantage, to see whether a certain country has the conditions for competition in four aspects, we look at the Chinese bus industry. There are advantages in these four aspects. Analyzed from the economic theory, in the future, regardless of Europe, even the United States, North America, the future of Chinese buses must have a strong advantage.
When I went to the United States on its bus last spring, I felt strongly that in the United States, Chinese buses could occupy its market. The speed and comfort of Chinese buses are not completely lost to American buses. The American railway fares are very expensive and rely on aviation. Many people fly from New York to Washington, but generally do not fly in the urban areas. If there are roads and railroads, why fly? Because it takes a lot of journey to the airport. Its passenger transport industry is underdeveloped, but there is such a demand. China’s supply has slowly met this demand through various channels.
Why do Chinese buses have advantages? The first is production factors, human resources, natural resources, and infrastructure. The development of the passenger bus industry in China has had a huge human resource base for so many years. With a lot of talents, we have many natural resources. For example, rubber, glass, and steel have no problems with infrastructure and can fully support the bus industry. Chinese passenger cars occupy one-half of the world's markets and have the largest market. This condition can indicate that China's bus manufacturing must be the strongest in the world.
Second, demand conditions. The theory of international trade has such a theory that a certain industry has a strong advantage because the country has a strong demand. Why do French wines have such advantages? Because the French love to drink wine. Italy's leather goods are very fashionable. The Italians themselves like to use these things. It can be seen that in many countries, a certain industry is very developed. It must be a great demand for this industry in this country. The Chinese passenger car market accounts for half of the world's sales each year, and the Chinese bus itself can develop to a very high level in China so that it can be exported.
Third, related industries and knowledge industries. Chinese bus-related industries, whether they are engine parts or raw materials, have now reached a relatively high level.
Fourth, corporate strategy and competitors. A simpler point can be called peer competition. The first three conditions, the national car industry has the same, but why the national car industry does not form a strong competitive advantage in the world? Just because its competition in the industry is not sufficient. The bus industry is the most competitive industry in all automotive market segments. After full competition, there will be companies that stand out from the crowd. The three dragons, Yutong, Zhongtong including later Futian Ouhui grew up in the competition. Each day they face a variety of competitions and the pressure of competition is very high. Therefore, they also develop a strong market response capability.
Companies in the passenger car industry have performed very well both in terms of management level and market capacity. The four conditions of the Chinese bus industry determine the future. In the future, both Europe and North America must have very broad prospects. (This is a photograph of the Ankai bus on the bridge in London. You can see many such Chinese buses on the streets of London.)
For companies, there are three types of successful strategic ideas. 1. Total cost leadership strategy, 2. Differentiation strategy, 3. Specific strategy. This is why European customers are so ignorant of Chinese buses. Chinese buses have a very good price/performance ratio. Chinese bus companies only serve as passenger cars and pay more attention to passenger cars and services. China's bus companies are unique among new energy sources.
Chinese buses have so many advantages, but it is unlikely that the future of exports will be very smooth. This is another key point I want to talk about today:
China's bus exports face two major problems: the first issue, disorderly and chaotic competition. Many Chinese companies do not have strong manufacturing capabilities. After export, they have smashed the Chinese passenger car brand. Some people like 5 or 6 years ago had a bad impression on Chinese buses because after the buses entered the European area, the poor quality and lack of good after-sales service made the Chinese buses look very bad in European customers. Some mainstream bus companies in China are changing this image. However, as we all know, once China’s export market is opened up, there will be a large number of companies that have entered the market. This was the case in the past when entering the emerging market countries. In the future, it may be the same for the developed countries.
The developed countries themselves have some prejudice against Chinese manufacturing. They were mentioned at the FNTV meeting. Some people are still more sensitive to manufacturing in China. In a more sensitive situation, you may have a little more problems. Especially developed countries. Just as I told you about the joke, the Chinese smiled. The British may feel uncomfortable. The Chinese help the British to carry out some construction. A large number of Chinese products will enter the UK, especially high-tech products. Perhaps the British will feel that the heart is not balanced. Any problem at this time will be magnified. When China enters these developed countries in Europe and America, it must be more cautious.
Second, we must pay attention to foreign anti-dumping. When Chinese passenger cars enter a country, when that country's formerly very powerful industry gradually shrinks, the opposition of these countries will be very serious. Eventually, it will lead to anti-dumping actions for associations that use labor unions and use the country. After our country joined the WTO, many industries suffered huge losses after anti-dumping, and some industries were even shut by the export of these countries because of anti-dumping.
The bus industry is also facing such a problem. How to solve this problem? Usually two roads 1, local production, joint production. This can weaken the opposition of the local people including the local industry. 2. Pull the entire industry chain of passenger transport.
What is the point that China's passenger car industry does not pay attention to? That is only products, not a complete set of operational solutions. If Chinese buses are exported to foreign countries, they will not only increase the cost-effectiveness of foreign passenger cars themselves, but also drive the development of local passenger transport, which can provide more employment opportunities for local people.
China's passenger transport management is also very advanced. When we arrived in the United States on a passenger bus, the management of the bus terminal was very backward. After the car came, it basically yelled. The management of many passenger stations in China is informatized and even intelligent. If our bus companies provide integrated solutions to foreign countries, their passenger transportation can be greatly improved.
France also came a message that France will open long-distance buses at the end of this year. In the past, passenger traffic was not allowed to operate in more than one hundred kilometers in France. It must be completed by the railway. Now France has proposed a series of programs to stimulate the economy. This includes the liberalization of over 100 kilometers of long-distance passenger traffic in France.
For another example, many operators in the United States have a poor ability to manage passenger transport compared with China. China has a lot of advanced passenger car operating experience, such as the face of the Spring Festival and so on. Whether it is a traditional passenger car or a new energy passenger car, the experience far exceeds that of foreign countries. If we package and provide solutions, it will provide strong competitiveness for foreign passengers. Compared with the railways, they will be more competitive than the aircraft. This will generate more demand for passenger cars and at the same time attract the passenger industry. More employment, then the industry itself cake becomes bigger. To absorb more employment is a promotion for the country’s employment or for the entire economy. It will certainly be welcomed by the local people.
When we were abroad, some operators, including dealers, also persuaded their people and their government that you could buy Chinese buses. why? They have one reason: "You saw that Chinese buses were made in China, but it shipped to our country and drove many other consumption in our country."
Therefore, based on the above two points, I stress once again that Chinese passenger cars must pay attention to these two issues when entering the developed countries of Europe and the United States. The first issue must be to avoid disorderly competition. It is imperative to establish thresholds to prevent people, companies, and brands with weaker capabilities from entering these countries and affecting the brand image of “Made in China†and “China Busesâ€. I asked a lot of people. They also don't have a concept of a Chinese brand. They don't know what brand it is. But he will know that this is a Chinese-made car.
Another point is that when exporting to developed countries, we must prevent anti-dumping. Developed countries in Europe and the United States are different from many emerging countries. These countries have very strong auto manufacturing companies. The large number of passenger cars exported from China will definitely affect the sales of local passenger cars. These enterprises will inevitably carry out various anti-dumping measures and put forward some protections to the WTO. Wait. Therefore, prepare to export bus companies in developed countries. All data must be prepared and there must be ideological readiness to respond to anti-dumping measures. Before this, when many industries entered the developed countries, they encountered anti-dumping. Chinese buses will inevitably suffer from the troubles of these big manufacturers of coaches.
Finally, let me talk about my point:
The future of Chinese passenger cars in Europe is promising. Reasons: The huge demand for new energy buses in Europe and its own demand for traditional passenger cars is very large, but the supply capacity of domestic production companies in Europe is insufficient. These two contradictions make it difficult for European passenger car manufacturers to meet local demand. , With the world's leading technology to operate China's new energy bus in the future will certainly become a hot commodity in the European market.
thank you all.
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